GoAI Market Wrap - 25th June
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25 มิถุนายน 2569
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U.S. equities were mixed Wednesday as mega-cap tech weighed on sentiment while the Dow edged higher on airline and travel strength. After the close, Micron surged 13% on a blowout Q4 beat. Oil fell to its lowest level since the Middle East conflict began as Iran confirmed no Hormuz passage fees. Japan unveiled a $2.3 trillion AI and semiconductor investment plan through 2041.
Daily Market Brief · Thursday, June 25, 2026
U.S. Market Close
DJIA51,848.90▲ 0.35%
S&P 5007,358.22▼ 0.10%
NASDAQ25,476.64▼ 0.11%
As of June 24 Close
GoAI Sentiment Index
Score: 51 — Neutral
Markets are cautiously optimistic after Micron’s blowout Q4 beat confirmed the AI memory supercycle. Oil’s sharp 4%+ drop eases inflation pressure, supporting equities. However, USD strength and gold’s retreat signal lingering macro uncertainty ahead of Friday’s PCE print.
Key Headlines
SEMIS
Micron Surges 10%+ After-Hours on Blowout Q4 Sales Outlook
COMMODITIES
Precious Metals Plunge — Gold Breaks Below $4,000
MACRO
Japan Goes All-In on AI and Semiconductors
Market Analysis
U.S. equities were mixed Wednesday. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell as mega-cap tech weighed on sentiment, while the Dow edged higher, lifted by airlines and travel stocks as crude oil slid to its lowest level since the Middle East conflict began.
After the close, Micron’s blowout earnings triggered a broad chip rally: Micron surged 13%, Western Digital jumped 11%, SanDisk rose 10%, Qualcomm gained 10%, Seagate climbed 8%, ARM rose 5%, Applied Materials added 4%, and Nvidia gained 3% in after-hours trading. Micron Q3 adjusted revenue came in at $41.46B (est. $35.69B), with Q4 guidance of $49–51B far exceeding the $43.24B consensus.
Oil prices fell to their lowest level since the war began, as expectations grew that more tankers would transit the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said Iran had confirmed it would not charge passage fees. ING analyst Warren Patterson noted: “Positive signals from the Persian Gulf are driving optimism about a resumption of crude flows through Hormuz. Vessel transit numbers have increased but remain well below pre-war levels.”
Concerns about debt-funded AI capex and a hawkish Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh drove this week’s pullback, erasing over $1 trillion in Nasdaq 100 market cap. RGA Investments CIO Rick Gardner said: “The tech pullback is a healthy correction — many of these names had simply run too far.” Founder ETFs’ Michael Monaghan added: “The Middle East conversation is winding down and energy prices are falling. But AI capex keeps going — the market is rewarding beneficiaries while punishing spenders.”
Key Takeaway: Micron’s blowout results validate the AI memory supercycle thesis. Friday’s PCE price index is the next critical data point — a soft print could unlock the next leg of the rally.
After the close, Micron’s blowout earnings triggered a broad chip rally: Micron surged 13%, Western Digital jumped 11%, SanDisk rose 10%, Qualcomm gained 10%, Seagate climbed 8%, ARM rose 5%, Applied Materials added 4%, and Nvidia gained 3% in after-hours trading. Micron Q3 adjusted revenue came in at $41.46B (est. $35.69B), with Q4 guidance of $49–51B far exceeding the $43.24B consensus.
Oil prices fell to their lowest level since the war began, as expectations grew that more tankers would transit the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said Iran had confirmed it would not charge passage fees. ING analyst Warren Patterson noted: “Positive signals from the Persian Gulf are driving optimism about a resumption of crude flows through Hormuz. Vessel transit numbers have increased but remain well below pre-war levels.”
Concerns about debt-funded AI capex and a hawkish Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh drove this week’s pullback, erasing over $1 trillion in Nasdaq 100 market cap. RGA Investments CIO Rick Gardner said: “The tech pullback is a healthy correction — many of these names had simply run too far.” Founder ETFs’ Michael Monaghan added: “The Middle East conversation is winding down and energy prices are falling. But AI capex keeps going — the market is rewarding beneficiaries while punishing spenders.”
Key Takeaway: Micron’s blowout results validate the AI memory supercycle thesis. Friday’s PCE price index is the next critical data point — a soft print could unlock the next leg of the rally.
Key Events
Japan Plans $2.3 Trillion Investment in AI and Semiconductors Over 14 Years
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi unveiled a long-term economic vision targeting over ¥370 trillion ($2.3T) in investment through FY2041, with ¥101.6 trillion earmarked for AI and chips. Semiconductor investment is projected to generate ¥443 trillion in economic spillover by FY2040.
Jensen Huang: AI ROI Question “Has Been Answered”
At Nvidia’s annual shareholder meeting, CEO Jensen Huang declared the AI ROI debate settled. He framed AI data centers as “token factories,” arguing every token generated is a unit of profit — code, answers, designs, and services. “Useful AI is here, and it’s already making money,” he said.
Micron Q3 Beats Across the Board; Q4 Guidance Far Exceeds Estimates
Micron reported Q3 adjusted revenue of $41.46B (est. $35.69B) and adjusted EPS of $25.11 (est. $20.49). Q4 guidance: revenue $49–51B (est. $43.24B) and EPS $30–32 (est. $25.31). Shares surged 13% after-hours.
Commodities
NYMEX WTI Crude▼ 3.92%
ICE Brent Crude▼ 4.33%
COMEX Gold▼ 3.21%
COMEX Silver▼ 6.64%
LME Copper▼ 2.59%
LME Aluminum▼ 4.43%
LME Nickel▼ 2.52%
LME Zinc▼ 2.67%
Forex
EUR/USD1.1359▼ 0.20%
GBP/USD1.3169▼ 0.26%
USD/JPY161.81▲ 0.14%
USD/CNY6.7900▲ 0.23%
Key Event: The dollar strengthened as oil’s plunge boosted risk-off USD demand. EUR/USD slipped to 1.1359 (−0.20%) and GBP/USD fell to 1.3169 (−0.26%). USD/JPY edged up to 161.81 (+0.14%) as yen safe-haven demand was offset by hawkish Warsh signals. USD/CNY rose to 6.7900 (+0.23%).
Sector Intelligence
HEALTHCARE & CONSUMER CYCLICAL
XLV (1D)$153.17▼ 0.12%
XLY (1D)$113.37▼ 1.48%
Key Drivers: Healthcare (XLV −0.12%) held relatively firm as defensive rotation supported pharma and managed care. Consumer Cyclical (XLY −1.48%) was dragged lower by Amazon and Tesla amid broad risk-off sentiment tied to oil price declines and tech weakness.
Outlook: Healthcare remains a defensive anchor; Consumer Cyclical faces headwinds from softening consumer confidence and elevated rate expectations.
Outlook: Healthcare remains a defensive anchor; Consumer Cyclical faces headwinds from softening consumer confidence and elevated rate expectations.
SHIPPING & LOGISTICS
Drewry World Container Index (WCI)$3,969 ▲ 12%
Baltic Dry Index2,684 ▼ 1.40%
Market Dynamics: Drewry’s WCI surged 12% to $3,969/40ft (week of Jun 18), driven by sharp rate increases on transpacific and Asia–Europe routes as carriers push pre-summer peak season surcharges. The BDI fell 1.40% to 2,684 on June 22, extending a pullback from recent highs as Capesize demand softened.
Outlook: Container rates are approaching pre-conflict highs; watch for further carrier GRI announcements in late June. BDI near-term direction hinges on iron ore restocking demand from China and any Hormuz reopening progress.
Outlook: Container rates are approaching pre-conflict highs; watch for further carrier GRI announcements in late June. BDI near-term direction hinges on iron ore restocking demand from China and any Hormuz reopening progress.
Institutional Views
Morgan StanleyBULLISH
S&P 500 mid-2027 target 8,300. Micron’s blowout Q4 confirms the AI memory supercycle is intact. Overweight semis; oil retreat improves margin outlook for industrials and consumer names. (Morgan Stanley, June 25, 2026)
Goldman SachsBULLISH
Year-end S&P 500 target 8,000; EPS $340 (+24% YoY). Micron beat validates AI infrastructure thesis. Oil below $74 (Brent) eases inflation pressure — supportive for equities if PCE Friday prints in line. (Goldman Sachs Research, June 25, 2026)
BlackRockCAUTIOUS
Maintains CAUTIOUS stance. Oil’s sharp drop and gold’s retreat signal deflation risk alongside rate uncertainty. Underweight energy; monitor Friday PCE for Fed pivot signals. (BlackRock Investment Institute, June 25, 2026)
Digital Assets (24h)
Bitcoin (BTC)$60,806.68▼ 3.36%
Ethereum (ETH)$1,617.65▼ 0.09%
XRP$1.07▼ 0.36%
Solana (SOL)$67.81▼ 1.83%
GoAI Performance
Today’s Live P&L
SPY (Benchmark)▼ 0.43%
GoAI Portfolio▲ 0.52%
Alpha vs SPY▲ 0.63%
Positions69 / 69
Performance Metrics
Total Return (TWR, YTD)▲ 38.47%
Win Rate (41/69)59.4%
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