GoAI Market Wrap – 4th August

U.S. equities rallied broadly on Monday as easing U.S.-Iran tensions drove oil prices and Treasury yields lower. The Dow set a new closing high at 53,178.17, up 1.32%. The S&P 500 gained 1.48% to 7,600.48, and the Nasdaq surged 2.13% to 25,913.90. Trump said the Hormuz Strait could reopen as early as Tuesday. Boeing surged 8%+ after the FAA certified the 737 MAX 7.

Daily Market Brief · Tuesday, August 4, 2026

U.S. Market Close

DJIA53,178.17▲ 1.32%

S&P 5007,600.48▲ 1.48%

NASDAQ25,913.90▲ 2.13%

GoAI Sentiment Index

Score: 44 — Mild Fear

44 Mild Fear. Risk appetite improved modestly as easing U.S.-Iran tensions drove oil prices and Treasury yields lower, lifting equities broadly. However, elevated rate expectations — with 66.5% odds of a September Fed hike — and ongoing tariff litigation across 25 states keep sentiment in cautious territory.

Key Headlines

GEOPOLITICS / OIL

Hormuz Strait Could Reopen as Soon as Tomorrow, Trump Says

AVIATION / REGULATION

Boeing 737 MAX 7 Earns FAA Certification After Years of Delays

LEGAL / POLICY

25 U.S. States File Lawsuits Against Federal Government Over Tariffs

Market Analysis

Global Market Indices Update - 4 August 2026

U.S. equities rallied broadly on Monday as easing U.S.-Iran tensions drove oil prices and Treasury yields lower, lifting investor sentiment across all three major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new closing high, rising 693.14 points, or 1.32%, to 53,178.17. The S&P 500 gained 110.76 points, or 1.48%, to close at 7,600.48, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 540.04 points, or 2.13%, to 25,913.90.

President Trump stated on Sunday that the U.S. and Iran would hold talks on Monday regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a claim Iran denied. On Monday, Trump elaborated that Phase 1 of negotiations would focus on reopening the strait, with Phase 2 addressing denuclearization. He added that the Hormuz Strait could reopen as early as Tuesday.

The pullback in oil prices helped push U.S. Treasury yields lower. Markets are also weighing whether a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of at least a 25 basis point hike at the September meeting stands at 66.5%.

Investors face a busy week of U.S. labor market data, culminating in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. B. Riley Wealth Chief Market Strategist Art Hogan noted: "Every day, everyone wakes up and watches two things — crude oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield. If both are falling, markets tend to hold steady; if they rise, markets come under pressure almost immediately."

Corporate earnings remain strong. According to LSEG data, of the 304 S&P 500 companies that had reported as of last Friday, aggregate earnings growth stands at 29.3%, with 85.2% beating analyst estimates.

Key Events

Boeing 737 MAX 7 Earns FAA Certification After Years of Delays

The FAA on Monday formally granted airworthiness certification to the Boeing 737 MAX 7, the smallest variant in the MAX family, after nearly a decade of delays. Boeing shares surged more than 8% on the news. The FAA said the certification reflects years of work resolving complex technical issues and conducting a comprehensive review of the aircraft's design and safety analyses.

Trump: Hormuz Strait Could Reopen as Soon as Tomorrow

President Trump said negotiations with Iran are proceeding in two phases: Phase 1 focuses on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Phase 2 on denuclearization. Trump reaffirmed that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons and disclosed progress in the talks, stating the strait could reopen as early as Tuesday. The de-escalation signal drove oil prices sharply lower and boosted risk appetite across global markets.

25 U.S. States Sue Over Latest Tariff Measures

Court filings show 25 U.S. states have filed suit against the federal government over its latest round of tariffs. Led by Democratic attorneys general, the coalition argues that the president's tariffs on goods from 60 trading partners exceed his statutory authority to impose import duties. The New York AG stated the new tariffs are unlawfully broad, circumvent legally required country-specific investigation procedures, and are designed to replace measures already struck down by the Supreme Court.

Commodities

NYMEX WTI Crude▼ 5.11%

ICE Brent Crude▼ 4.73%

COMEX Gold▲ 0.15%

COMEX Silver▲ 1.08%

LME Copper▲ 0.98%

LME Aluminum▲ 0.10%

LME Nickel▲ 0.33%

LME Zinc▲ 1.00%

Forex

EUR/USD1.1509▼ 0.17%

GBP/USD1.3434▼ 0.37%

USD/JPY157.21▼ 0.18%

USD/CNY6.7518▲ 0.08%

Key Event: Trump's Hormuz de-escalation comments drove a sharp pullback in oil prices, easing inflation fears and pushing the U.S. dollar lower against the yen and euro. USD/JPY fell to 157.21 as safe-haven yen demand eased alongside oil's decline.

Sector Intelligence

AEROSPACE & DEFENSE

iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense (ITA)$238.64▲ 2.18%

SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense (XAR)$266.20▲ 0.52%

Market Read: Aerospace & defense ETFs surged as Boeing soared 8%+ after the FAA formally certified the 737 MAX 7, ending years of delays. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to drive elevated defense spending expectations globally. ITA gained 2.18% while XAR advanced 0.52%.
Context: With the Boeing 737 MAX 7 certification unlocking new delivery capacity and Middle East tensions sustaining defense budget momentum, the aerospace & defense sector remains well-positioned heading into H2 2026.

SHIPPING & LOGISTICS

Baltic Dry Index (Aug 3)2,843▲ 4.06%

Drewry WCI (Jul 30)$4,255▼ 3.00%

Market Dynamics: The Baltic Dry Index surged 4.06% to 2,843 points on August 3, its highest level since July 15, driven by strong capesize and panamax demand. Drewry's World Container Index fell 3% to $4,255 per 40ft container on July 30, driven by softening rates on Asia–Europe and Transpacific routes as post-tariff front-loading activity fades.
Outlook: Dry bulk rates are at a six-week high and supported by firm iron ore and coal shipments. The potential reopening of the Hormuz Strait could ease energy freight costs, though any delay may sustain EFS surcharges and add near-term volatility to container rates.

Institutional Views

BlackRockSELECTIVE

Maintains a selective stance amid structurally higher rates. The 30-year Treasury hit a 19-year high of 5.28% as AI investment and government borrowing intensify competition for capital. Recommends durable income through short/medium-term Treasuries and EM local debt rather than long bonds, while remaining overweight equities with greater dispersion expected across companies.

UBSBULLISH

Rates equities as Attractive with S&P 500 target of 8,200 by June 2027 (~10% upside). Forecasts 2026 global earnings growth of 21%, with all 11 S&P 500 sectors expected to deliver profit growth. Upgrades Eurozone equities to Attractive; continues to favor U.S., Asia, Japan, and EM. Recommends broadening exposure beyond mega-cap tech to capture wider growth drivers.

J.P. MorganCONSTRUCTIVE

Remains positive on global equities for 2026, forecasting double-digit gains across developed and emerging markets. S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth of 29.3% with 85.2% beat rate reinforces the constructive view. Geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East and potential Hormuz Strait reopening could provide additional upside, though Fed rate trajectory and tariff litigation remain key risks to monitor.

Digital Assets (24h)

Bitcoin (BTC)$63,351.91▼ 0.01%

Ethereum (ETH)$1,855.93▼ 1.10%

XRP$1.07▼ 0.84%

Solana (SOL)$73.48▲ 0.12%

GoAI Performance

Today’s Live P&L

SPY (Benchmark)▲ 1.69%

GoAI Portfolio▲ 1.07%

Alpha vs SPY▼ 0.62%

Positions69 / 69

Performance Metrics

Total Return (TWR, YTD)▲ 40.90%

Win Rate (43/69)62.3%

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