Four Charts Reveal Why AI Giants Are Stalling in the Stock Market

Over the past few months, the "hyperscalers"—the elite group of U.S. tech giants leading the AI charge—have shifted from market leaders to laggards. This pivot has caught many by surprise, especially since Wall Street still expects these firms to outpace the average S&P 500 company in profit growth through 2026.

 

In a report released Tuesday, Wells Fargo equity analyst Ohsung Kwon and his team laid out several key findings that explain why investor enthusiasm for AI titans is cooling.

 

The team focused on the four primary hyperscalers: Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft. Aside from Alphabet, these stocks have faced significant pressure since last October. Here is why:

Vanishing Free Cash Flow

As these giants pour billions into data center construction, their once-dominant free cash flow (FCF) has shriveled. The FCF margin—which measures free cash flow relative to total sales—has effectively dropped to the same level as the broader S&P 500.

 

With the bulk of their cash being funneled into AI infrastructure, these companies are turning to debt markets. Wells Fargo believes this shift is only just beginning. UBS analysts echoed this concern on Tuesday, noting that capital expenditures (Capex) for these firms could hit $700 billion this year, potentially swallowing nearly all of their operating cash flow.