SpaceX Set to Release Maiden Post-IPO Earnings as Morgan Stanley Warns of "Most Dangerous Moment"

SpaceX is scheduled to report its first quarterly earnings as a public company next Tuesday. Morgan Stanley warned in a recent note that the company is approaching its "most dangerous moment."

SpaceX shares debuted on June 12 at an IPO price of $135, subsequently surging to an intraday peak of $225—pushing its valuation past $2 trillion to briefly top tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft.

However, the stock has since retreated to around $112 per share, cutting its market cap nearly in half from its high. With sentiment cooling, anxious investors will be scrutinizing the upcoming print for clarity.

Adding to the pressure, an estimated 911.5 million shares worth roughly $100 billion are scheduled to unlock on August 6, releasing a massive wave of supply into the market. This looming overhang is expected to amplify volatility around the earnings release.

Morgan Stanley emphasized that financial metrics themselves will take a backseat to management's strategic commentary.

The firm expects the earnings call to mirror Tesla’s communication style—offering limited quantitative guidance while focusing on directional updates regarding the Starship development timeline, compute deployment scaling, and broader progress on its Grok and Cursor AI models.

Massive Supply Overhang Weighs on Valuation

Morgan Stanley forecasts SpaceX second-quarter revenue of $6.75 billion and an adjusted EPS loss of $0.35, with Starlink consumer subscribers expected to hit 12 million at an Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) of $65.50.

Analysts at the bank noted that investors should focus on several key operational catalysts:

Specific color surrounding enterprise-grade Starlink adoption;
Scaled architecture roadmaps to expand compute capacity past 2 gigawatts by 2027;
Joint model integration efforts between SpaceX-AI and Cursor (though specific financial details on the Cursor acquisition are unlikely to be disclosed in Q2 given its late-quarter closing timeline).

Maintaining a $300 price target on the stock, Morgan Stanley breaks down SpaceX’s sum-of-the-parts valuation as follows:

Core Space Launch: $8 per share
Connectivity (Starlink): $128 per share
X & Grok Ecosystem: $12 per share
Enterprise AI Infrastructure: $152 per share

The bank argues that current market prices severely undervalue SpaceX's long-term AI capabilities.

In the near term, the primary fundamental catalyst is not earnings, but rather the Starship Flight 14 test planned for late August or early September.

Achieving a successful tower catch of the upper-stage Starship would mark a watershed milestone toward achieving full operational reusability.

For now, however, short sellers hold the upper hand. Morgan Stanley revealed that over two-thirds of institutional investors surveyed at a recent conference expressed a bearish outlook on the stock through the end of the year.

Furthermore, early insiders and institutional backers face little hesitation selling at current levels, given that current prices still represent a multi-bagger return relative to their original cost basis.