Global Highlights for This Week: SpaceX Maiden Post-IPO Earnings and Unlock Wave amid Middle East Turmoil

Following heavy tech volatility in July, markets are looking to see if the first week of August can sustain the stabilizing momentum built during the final two days of last week.

The market faces July U.S. nonfarm payrolls alongside SpaceX’s maiden earnings report as a public company, while intensifying Middle East geopolitics reach a critical juncture.

The July U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will play a pivotal role in guiding the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. According to LSEG data, money markets fully priced in a September rate hike prior to last week's Fed rate decision; that probability has now dialed back to 68%.

Against the backdrop of June nonfarm payrolls (+57k) coming in at half of analyst expectations, a second consecutive soft print in July would trigger a sharper dovish repricing.

Economist surveys project payroll additions of around 80,000, with the unemployment rate expected at 4.3%.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury is scheduled to release its Quarterly Refunding Announcement detailing borrowing estimates on Monday, followed by its refunding policy statement and specific auction schedules on Wednesday.

The recent spike in Treasury yields could present headwinds for any planned increase in coupon issuance.

Earnings season remains in full swing this week, with over a quarter of S&P 500 components reporting—highlighted by commercial space giant SpaceX, AI compute favorite AMD, and memory leaders SanDisk and Western Digital.

Spotlight remains firmly on SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk. This marks its first quarterly print post-IPO, accompanied by a massive unlock of up to 911.5 million shares on August 6—a volume exceeding its current floating supply.

Data from S3 Partners shows SpaceX short interest reached 219.3 million shares as of July 29, representing roughly 34% of its publicly tradeable float. This suggests short sellers are betting that earnings commentary will fail to offset supply pressures from the share unlock.

Since its June 12 debut at an IPO price of $135, SpaceX shares peaked above $200 before falling below $110 by last Friday's close.

Combined with Tesla’s post-earnings slide in late July, net worth for the world's first trillionaire, Elon Musk, has contracted by over $600 billion in just over a month, settling slightly above $680 billion.

Beyond space capabilities, investors are also tracking potential synergy prospects regarding a SpaceX-Tesla merger.

The memory sector will remain a central driver this week. Following Kioxia’s softer-than-expected print on Friday, its U.S. ADR closed down 10.1%, sharpening market focus on peer SanDisk’s upcoming earnings.

Despite July's tech pullback, a capital rotation kept the S&P 500 buoyed, closing last Friday at 7,489.72—less than 2% off its all-time high of 7,609.78.

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East represent the primary macro tail risk for last Sunday and the week ahead. After U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly warned of striking Iran last week, the State Department advised U.S. citizens in the region on Saturday to consider departing.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement on August 1 reaffirming its commitment to resist until "the threat is fully neutralized."

As global markets braced for escalation, President Trump announced that the planned strike had been called off.

The U.S. President stated that military forces were prepared for operations "unseen since World War II." However, Iran and neighboring nations requested a hold on strikes, citing an agreed framework aimed at fully opening the Strait of Hormuz and neutralizing regional nuclear threats.

Trump confirmed he agreed to halt the strike contingent on swift finalization of the deal.

Iranian officials have not publicly commented, and it remains uncertain whether the framework and total opening of the Strait of Hormuz will materialize.

Last week, inflation concerns triggered by rising crude prices pushed long-term U.S. Treasury yields to post-global financial crisis highs.

Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, noted: "The market is effectively held hostage by crude oil and 10-year Treasury yields pushing higher; we will see if this week offers any relief on that front."

Week Ahead: Key Economic Events

Monday: China July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday: South Korea July CPI, U.S. June Trade Balance, U.S. June JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday: China July RatingDog Services PMI, Eurozone June PPI, U.S. July ADP Employment Change, U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Week Ended July 31)
Thursday: Eurozone June Retail Sales
Friday: U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls Report, U.S. July NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations