Countdown to SpaceX’s Historic IPO: Prediction Markets Bet on $2 Trillion First-Day Market Cap

 

Elon Musk’s aerospace and artificial intelligence vanguard, SpaceX, is scheduled to make its public debut on the Nasdaq this Friday, with traders on prediction platform Polymarket aggressively backing a blockbuster opening session.

 

On Thursday, SpaceX finalized its IPO pricing at $135 per share, offering 555.6 million shares to pull in a $75 billion capital raise.

 

Upon successful completion, the deal will eclipse Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion raise in 2019 to crown SpaceX as the largest initial public offering in corporate history.

 

While the $135 offer price pegs the firm’s initial valuation at $1.77 trillion, prediction market participants view an immediate post-listing pop past that baseline as a near certainty.

 

Polymarket data shows traders pricing an 84% probability that SpaceX will finish its first session above an $1.8 trillion market cap, alongside a robust 69% chance it breaches the $2 trillion milestone.

 

 

Sailing past $2 trillion requires roughly a 13% opening-day surge from its initial $1.77 trillion baseline.

 

Meanwhile, pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid indicate that the day-one rally could top 20%.

 

Reports on Thursday noted that SpaceX-linked perpetuals were changing hands around $165 across platforms like Binance and Hyperliquid—tracking roughly 22% above the official $135 IPO price, implying a market valuation of $2.2 trillion.

 

However, prediction market participants remain slightly more conservative on whether the stock can sustain those heights, pricing the odds of a close above $2.2 trillion at under 50%.

 

Should SpaceX comfortably defend a $2 trillion close, it will immediately break into the ultra-exclusive top tier of global mega-caps. Currently, only five US corporations hold market caps above that threshold: Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon.

 

A $2 trillion valuation would also steer SpaceX past semiconductor titan Broadcom ($1.85 trillion). In fact, even at its baseline $1.77 trillion entry price, SpaceX already commands a premium over Musk’s own electric vehicle flag-bearer, Tesla, which currently floats near $1.72 trillion.

 

The blockbuster listing continues to face an avalanche of buy-side demand. Sources familiar with the bookbuilding process note that retail subscriptions have blown past $100 billion in the final sprint, drawing massive interest from both domestic and international retail accounts.

 

The same sources indicate that retail accounts are on track to be allocated at least 20% of the aggregate IPO float. Given the record-breaking $75 billion total deal size, this allocation framework means a vast portion of retail demand will ultimately be left unfulfilled.

 

Concurrently, the rocket, satellite, and AI powerhouse has drawn firm orders from roughly 1,000 institutional accounts. A select group of tier-one institutional players, including several sovereign wealth funds, have reportedly secured allocations exceeding $1 billion each.