GoAI Market Wrap – 1st Oct
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1 أكتوبر 2026
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U.S. equities finished mixed after softer-than-expected PCE inflation eased near-term rate-hike pricing. Yet long-dated Treasury yields remained near cycle-era highs and firmer oil prices kept the market’s risk backdrop uneven.
Daily Market Brief · Thursday, October 1, 2026
U.S. Market Close
DJIA50,906.05▼ 0.86%
S&P 5007,651.54▼ 0.25%
NASDAQ26,861.06▲ 0.24%
GoAI Sentiment Index
Score: 40 — Mild Fear
Softer rate-hike expectations help, but elevated long-end yields and energy-market uncertainty keep the signal in Mild Fear territory.
Key Headlines
RATES & MACRO
10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches Its Highest Level Since May 2002
MONETARY POLICY
Traders Cut October Fed-Hike Odds to About 37%
EARNINGS & TECHNOLOGY
Micron’s Adjusted Q4 Revenue of $54.23B Beats Expectations
Market Analysis
U.S. equities closed mixed on Wednesday. Following the inflation release, the S&P 500 rose nearly 0.7% intraday and the Nasdaq gained more than 1%, but both surrendered much of those gains into the close. The S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,651.54, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.24% to 26,861.06 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.86% to 50,906.05.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each posted a second consecutive quarterly advance—their fifth gain in the past six quarters—while the Dow recorded its second quarterly decline in three quarters. The Commerce Department reported that the August PCE price index rose 3.4% year on year, below economists’ 3.7% expectation.
Two-year Treasury yields initially declined after the data before edging back up. Long-dated yields remained near their highs, however, and ongoing selling pressure briefly pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.3%, its highest level since May 2002.
After Federal Reserve officials indicated that the central bank was not in a hurry to raise rates, softer-than-expected inflation reinforced the pullback in tightening expectations. CME FedWatch showed traders assigning roughly a 37% probability to an October rate increase.
International crude futures settled higher. The November WTI contract gained 1.16% to $90.42 a barrel, while the November Brent contract rose 0.92% to $103.53 a barrel, keeping the energy backdrop relevant to the inflation and rates narrative.
Key Takeaway: Softer PCE inflation reduced near-term rate-hike pricing and supported an intraday risk rebound, but yields near cycle-era highs and firmer oil prices kept the close uneven. The market is balancing easing policy expectations against a still-demanding long-end funding backdrop.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each posted a second consecutive quarterly advance—their fifth gain in the past six quarters—while the Dow recorded its second quarterly decline in three quarters. The Commerce Department reported that the August PCE price index rose 3.4% year on year, below economists’ 3.7% expectation.
Two-year Treasury yields initially declined after the data before edging back up. Long-dated yields remained near their highs, however, and ongoing selling pressure briefly pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.3%, its highest level since May 2002.
After Federal Reserve officials indicated that the central bank was not in a hurry to raise rates, softer-than-expected inflation reinforced the pullback in tightening expectations. CME FedWatch showed traders assigning roughly a 37% probability to an October rate increase.
International crude futures settled higher. The November WTI contract gained 1.16% to $90.42 a barrel, while the November Brent contract rose 0.92% to $103.53 a barrel, keeping the energy backdrop relevant to the inflation and rates narrative.
Key Takeaway: Softer PCE inflation reduced near-term rate-hike pricing and supported an intraday risk rebound, but yields near cycle-era highs and firmer oil prices kept the close uneven. The market is balancing easing policy expectations against a still-demanding long-end funding backdrop.
Key Events
Goldman Pushes Its Second Fed-Hike Call to December
Goldman Sachs said softer inflation data and New York Fed President John Williams’s comments make an October hike less likely. Its economists now expect fourth-quarter core PCE inflation near 3.0%, below the FOMC’s 3.4% median projection, and have shifted their expectation for a second hike to December. They also see a meaningful chance that the FOMC ultimately concludes no further increase is necessary.
Micron’s Fourth-Quarter Results Beat Expectations
Micron reported adjusted Q4 revenue of $54.23 billion, operating cash flow of $43.97 billion, adjusted operating income of $44.64 billion, an 87.0% adjusted gross margin and adjusted EPS of $33.42. For fiscal Q1, it guided to adjusted revenue of $60–$63 billion, adjusted EPS of $37.15–$39.15 and an adjusted gross margin of about 86.25%.
Eli Lilly Reports Up to 23.3% Weight Loss With Investigational Combination
Eli Lilly said its experimental weekly amylin-receptor agonist eloralintide, used with Mounjaro (tirzepatide), delivered up to 23.3% average weight loss in a diabetes study. Participants receiving the highest-dose EloraTZP combination lost an average 54.1 pounds (24.5 kg); the investigational regimen remains subject to further development and regulatory review.
Commodities
NYMEX WTI Crude▲ 1.16%
ICE Brent Crude▲ 0.92%
COMEX Gold▲ 0.22%
COMEX Silver▼ 0.65%
NYMEX Natural Gas▲ 0.50%
LME Copper▲ 0.02%
LME Aluminium▼ 1.43%
LME Zinc▼ 1.00%
LME Nickel▲ 0.11%
CBOT Corn▼ 4.02%
Forex
EUR/USD1.1399▲ 0.22%
GBP/USD1.3252▲ 0.26%
USD/JPY157.13▼ 1.08%
USD/CNY6.7030▼ 0.11%
Sector Intelligence
AI MEMORY & SEMICONDUCTORS
SOXX / iShares Semiconductor ETF$568.64▲ 0.21%
SMH / VanEck Semiconductor ETF$609.00▲ 0.35%
Key Drivers: Micron’s record quarter and fiscal-Q1 outlook kept the focus on AI memory, where data-centre demand, high-bandwidth memory and server upgrades remain important volume and margin drivers. Semiconductor ETFs closed modestly higher as the broader market digested softer inflation and elevated yields.
Outlook: AI memory demand remains a structural support, but the theme is capital-intensive and sensitive to financing costs, supply additions and memory-price cycles. Monitor customer demand, lead times, capital-spending discipline and the ability to sustain returns on new capacity.
Outlook: AI memory demand remains a structural support, but the theme is capital-intensive and sensitive to financing costs, supply additions and memory-price cycles. Monitor customer demand, lead times, capital-spending discipline and the ability to sustain returns on new capacity.
SHIPPING & LOGISTICS
Baltic Dry Index (Sep 30)3,113▼ 2.05%
Shanghai Container Freight Index (Sep 30)3,662.30▼ 0.66%
Market Dynamics: The BDI extended its retreat to 3,113 on September 30, while the official SCFI eased 24.32 points week over week to 3,662.30. The two moves signal softer pricing across dry bulk and broad export-container benchmarks, although route-level container conditions can still diverge.
Outlook: Monitor post-Golden-Week booking activity, blank sailings, port congestion, fuel costs and commodity flows. BDI is a daily dry-bulk index, while SCFI is a weekly container benchmark, so they should not be read as same-day, directly comparable indicators.
Outlook: Monitor post-Golden-Week booking activity, blank sailings, port congestion, fuel costs and commodity flows. BDI is a daily dry-bulk index, while SCFI is a weekly container benchmark, so they should not be read as same-day, directly comparable indicators.
Institutional Views
UBS Chief Investment OfficeCONSTRUCTIVE
UBS expects resilient US growth, solid earnings and accelerating AI adoption to support further equity gains despite higher yields. It forecasts about 10% S&P 500 upside by mid-2027 and recommends broad diversification across sectors and global markets, including the Eurozone, Asia and Japan.
BlackRock Investment InstituteCONSTRUCTIVE / SELECTIVE
BlackRock stays constructive on risk but selective as AI-led earnings support equities while higher government yields raise the cost of capital. Its Q4 outlook is overweight US and emerging-market equities, with a focus on AI bottlenecks such as power, chips and data centres, while preferring shorter-term bonds over long duration.
State Street Investment ManagementMODESTLY POSITIVE
State Street modestly increased its equity overweight as sentiment and fundamentals improved, but expects relatively subdued global-equity returns from current levels. It remains constructive on US equities while favouring US small caps over large caps and renewed overweight exposure to Pacific equities; valuations and softer momentum remain constraints.
Digital Assets (24h)
Bitcoin (BTC)$83,417.40▼ 0.16%
Ethereum (ETH)$2,681.42▲ 0.32%
XRP$1.48▲ 0.08%
Solana (SOL)$118.10▼ 0.47%
GoAI Performance
Today’s Live P&L · 70/70 Positions
SPY (Benchmark)▼ 0.25%
GoAI Portfolio▼ 0.67%
Alpha vs SPY▼ 0.42%
Performance Metrics
Total Return (TWR, YTD)▲ 35.79%
Win Rate (41/73)56.2%
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Disclaimer: This email is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please conduct your own due diligence.
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