2026 H2 US Market Outlook — From Blind Bullishness to Structural Reset

Driven by a massive rally in semiconductors and AI infrastructure, the US stock market just wrapped up its strongest half-year performance in six years.

But as the S&P 500 flirts with all-time highs, the Wall Street "bull market consensus" is hiding some serious undercurrents.

In this issue, we zoom out to examine the macro picture: breaking down the latest data, institutional price targets, AI CapEx ROI anxieties, and the underlying logic of sector rotation.

Our core conviction is that H2 2026 won't just be a one-man show for the "Magnificent Seven." Instead, we're looking at a structural reset—a shift from building infrastructure to monetizing applications, with capital spilling over into traditional sectors like industrials and healthcare.

Meanwhile, two swords of Damocles hang over this bull market: the hawkish stance of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and the mounting ROI disconnect triggered by a staggering $700 billion in AI capital expenditures.