SpaceX Short Interest Soars to 32%; Elon Musk Warns Bears Have "Virtually No Chance of Survival"

 

Ahead of several critical catalyst events, short sellers have ramped up their bearish bets against SpaceX, pushing short interest to nearly a third of its publicly traded float. Elon Musk recently issued a stark warning, declaring that investors shorting SpaceX have virtually no chance of surviving.

 

According to estimates from financial analytics firm S3 Partners, roughly 206 million shares of SpaceX are currently sold short—representing about 32% of the company's publicly traded float, with a nominal short value of approximately $25 billion.

 

That marks an increase from roughly 185 million shares (29% of float) last week, and a massive surge from an estimated 40 million shares (about 5% to 7% of float) roughly a month ago.

 

Matthew Unterman, Director of Research at S3, noted that short sellers are aggressively doubling down ahead of key imminent catalysts. These include SpaceX's upcoming debut quarterly earnings report as a public company and the phased lockup expiration that follows.

 

Addressing the mounting short positions, Musk took to X (formerly Twitter) to assert that short sellers are bound to suffer heavy losses.

 

"Any institution holding a massive short position in SpaceX long-term has a near-zero probability of survival," Musk wrote, adding: "As I've said before, if we achieve our goals, SpaceX's valuation will surpass the entire planet—there is zero doubt about that."

 

 

SpaceX confirmed Tuesday that it will release its first quarterly earnings report since going public after the market close on August 4. The release will give investors their first detailed look into the company's operational performance and will serve as a major test in the ongoing battle between bulls and bears.

 

Currently, investors are weighing SpaceX's long-term prospects and current valuation against the upcoming supply overhang from lockup expirations.

 

Bulls remain confident in SpaceX's dominance in commercial space launch, the rapid expansion of its Starlink business, and its AI ecosystem play. Conversely, bears question how much future growth remains unpriced into the current valuation.

 

SpaceX completed its IPO on June 12, raising over $85 billion in the world's largest public offering on record. After an initial surge that temporarily pushed its market cap past Amazon—making it the world's fifth most valuable company—the stock has faced a sustained pullback.

 

Since peaking on June 16, SpaceX has lost roughly $1 trillion in market capitalization. The most recent trigger for the stock's decline was the scrub of its first post-IPO Starship launch, which had been scheduled for last Thursday. SpaceX announced it will attempt the Starship launch again on July 23.

 

SpaceX shares rebounded nearly 3% on Tuesday to close at $123.54, snapping a seven-session losing streak, though remaining below its $135 IPO price. The uptick followed a note from Macquarie analysts reiterating an "Outperform" rating, advising investors to buy the dip following recent weakness.