GoAI Market Wrap – 13th August
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2026年8月12日
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U.S. equities finished mixed on Wednesday as cooling July inflation supported growth stocks, lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while the Dow posted a third straight decline. The CPI rose 3.4% year over year, easing from 3.5% in June and matching expectations. Semiconductor shares outperformed, led by SK Hynix and optical-networking strength, while continuing Hormuz disruption kept oil-price and medium-term inflation risks in focus.
Daily Market Brief · Thursday, August 13, 2026
U.S. Market Close
DJIA53,770.27▼ 0.04%
S&P 5007,748.50▲ 0.26%
NASDAQ26,588.49▲ 0.54%
GoAI Sentiment Index
Score: 43 — Mild Fear
Mild Fear. Cooling inflation and stronger technology shares lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but oil-price pressure and Hormuz uncertainty keep risk appetite cautious.
Key Headlines
MACRO / INFLATION
CPI Cools as Expected, Easing Rate-Hike Expectations
SEMICONDUCTORS / MEMORY
SK Hynix's U.S.-Listed Shares Surge More Than 9%
TECHNOLOGY / OPTICAL NETWORKING
Coherent's Quarterly Outlook Tops Market Expectations
Market Analysis
U.S. equities were mixed on Wednesday, August 12. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite opened higher and extended their gains into the close, while the Dow recorded a third consecutive decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.04% to 53,770.27; the S&P 500 gained 0.26% to 7,748.50; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.54% to 26,588.49.
Before the opening bell, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that July CPI rose 3.4% year over year, easing from 3.5% in June and matching expectations. Core CPI increased 2.5%, down 0.1 percentage point from the prior month.
The report increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its next meeting. CME’s FedWatch tool put the probability of no change at 60%, compared with roughly 45% one week earlier. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner said an in-line inflation print supports the post-payroll view that there is “no need to raise rates,” although another inflation release before the September meeting could still shift the outlook.
Inflation risk has not disappeared. Oil prices rose again as hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz faded. Iran’s Strait Management Authority said that repeated U.S. claims of a reopening did not change the situation: the waterway remains closed unless U.S. officials accept Iran’s conditions.
Principal Asset Management Chief Global Strategist Seema Shah said that, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, upside inflation risks will remain a central concern for the foreseeable future. The tension persists even as softer CPI data temporarily reduces pressure for another rate increase.
Before the opening bell, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that July CPI rose 3.4% year over year, easing from 3.5% in June and matching expectations. Core CPI increased 2.5%, down 0.1 percentage point from the prior month.
The report increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its next meeting. CME’s FedWatch tool put the probability of no change at 60%, compared with roughly 45% one week earlier. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner said an in-line inflation print supports the post-payroll view that there is “no need to raise rates,” although another inflation release before the September meeting could still shift the outlook.
Inflation risk has not disappeared. Oil prices rose again as hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz faded. Iran’s Strait Management Authority said that repeated U.S. claims of a reopening did not change the situation: the waterway remains closed unless U.S. officials accept Iran’s conditions.
Principal Asset Management Chief Global Strategist Seema Shah said that, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, upside inflation risks will remain a central concern for the foreseeable future. The tension persists even as softer CPI data temporarily reduces pressure for another rate increase.
Key Events
CME Group and Silicon Data Plan Compute Futures Launch on October 5
CME Group and Silicon Data announced plans to launch two compute futures contracts in early October, subject to regulatory approval. The products — Silicon Data H100 Rental Index Futures and B200 Rental Index Futures — are expected to list on CME and be governed by NYMEX rules. Both contracts will track indices measuring the hourly rental cost of GPUs, creating a new hedging tool for AI infrastructure users and providers.
Japanese Yen Gives Back Nearly Half of Its Post-Intervention Rebound
The yen weakened again on Tuesday, moving back toward the critical 160 level against the U.S. dollar after retracing nearly half of its post-intervention rebound. The move is reviving speculation that Japan’s Ministry of Finance could step in again. The key challenge: intervention can redirect short-term flows, but cannot resolve Japan’s fragile fiscal outlook, the yield gap, or diverging monetary-policy reaction functions.
NVIDIA Reportedly Developing Trillion-Parameter Open-Source Nemotron 4
NVIDIA is reportedly developing Nemotron 4, a next-generation open-source AI model expected to exceed one trillion parameters. The initiative aims to compete with leading open models, broaden the AI application ecosystem, and drive further demand for NVIDIA GPU compute. NVIDIA’s prior Nemotron portfolio includes the 340-billion-parameter Nemotron-4 340B series, used for training-data generation, model development, and enterprise AI applications.
Commodities
NYMEX WTI Crude▲ 0.08%
ICE Brent Crude▼ 0.10%
COMEX Gold▲ 0.59%
COMEX Silver▲ 1.00%
LME Copper▼ 0.02%
LME Aluminum▲ 1.40%
LME Nickel▼ 0.60%
LME Zinc▼ 0.20%
Forex
EUR/USD1.1525▼ 0.16%
GBP/USD1.3495▼ 0.09%
USD/JPY159.4345▲ 0.09%
USD/CNY6.7439▼ 0.02%
Sector Intelligence
SEMICONDUCTORS & AI INFRASTRUCTURE
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)$584.83▲ 2.08%
iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)$546.61▲ 2.32%
Key Drivers: Semiconductors led the market rebound after July CPI cooled as expected, strengthening the case for a September Fed hold. SMH gained 2.08% to $584.83 and SOXX rose 2.32% to $546.61. Strength in AI-memory and optical-networking names, including SK Hynix and Coherent, reinforced confidence in AI infrastructure demand.
Outlook: Softer inflation supports long-duration growth valuations, but the group remains sensitive to rate expectations and AI capital-spending updates. Sustained earnings delivery and a stable policy outlook would support further leadership.
Outlook: Softer inflation supports long-duration growth valuations, but the group remains sensitive to rate expectations and AI capital-spending updates. Sustained earnings delivery and a stable policy outlook would support further leadership.
SHIPPING & LOGISTICS
Baltic Dry Index (Aug 12)2,939▼ 3.51%
Drewry WCI (Aug 6)$4,297▲ 1.00%
Market Dynamics: The Baltic Dry Index fell 3.51% to 2,939 on Aug 12, marking a sharp pullback in dry-bulk freight as capesize activity softened. Drewry’s latest published World Container Index was $4,297 per 40ft container on Aug 6, up 1%; a new weekly reading is awaited. Fuel and insurance costs remain elevated while the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists.
Outlook: The BDI decline signals more near-term volatility in bulk shipping, while container rates remain exposed to surcharges linked to energy and route security. An easing of geopolitical restrictions would lower freight-cost pressure; continued disruption could keep logistics costs uneven across trade lanes.
Outlook: The BDI decline signals more near-term volatility in bulk shipping, while container rates remain exposed to surcharges linked to energy and route security. An easing of geopolitical restrictions would lower freight-cost pressure; continued disruption could keep logistics costs uneven across trade lanes.
Institutional Views
BlackRockPREFER EQUITIES
Maintains a preference for equities and private infrastructure equity over high yield credit. BlackRock sees stronger earnings and higher long-term bond yields as evidence of a structurally higher cost of capital, favoring targeted exposure to technology, healthcare, power, grids, and data centers while remaining strategically underweight developed-market government bonds.
Goldman SachsPOSITIVE
Remains positive on global equities, with a preference for quality earnings, resilient balance sheets, and companies benefiting from the AI investment cycle. Goldman Sachs sees high dispersion and low cross-asset correlations as supportive of active selection, and expects 2.8% global GDP growth in 2026 with emerging-market equities positioned for relative strength.
UBSCONSTRUCTIVE
Maintains a constructive global-equity view and forecasts 21% earnings growth in 2026. Strong earnings and a more patient Fed underpin the outlook, while oil-driven inflation pressure and renewed central-bank tightening fears remain key risks. UBS advocates diversified exposure across regions and sectors as AI-led leadership broadens.
Digital Assets (24h)
Bitcoin (BTC)$63,351.57▼ 0.22%
Ethereum (ETH)$1,875.11▼ 0.12%
XRP$1.00▼ 1.64%
Solana (SOL)$75.39▼ 1.00%
GoAI Performance
Today’s Live P&L
SPY (Benchmark)▲ 0.31%
GoAI Portfolio▲ 0.69%
Alpha vs SPY▲ 0.38%
Positions69 / 69
Performance Metrics
Total Return (TWR, YTD)▲ 44.59%
Win Rate (47/69)68.1%
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