In light of the recent detention of employees and ongoing tax disputes with the Malian military government, how should investors quantify the geopolitical risk premium for Barrick Gold’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex and its potential impact on FY 2025 production targets?

The geopolitical risk profile for Barrick Gold’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex underwent a significant repricing throughout 2025, culminating in a comprehensive resolution in late November 2025. For institutional investors, quantifying this risk requires a multi-factor analysis of production loss, regulatory shifts, and the cost of capital adjustments necessitated by the Malian military government’s escalatory tactics. Geopolitical Risk Quantification Framework Investors typically quantify the geopolitical risk premium (GRP) for Tier One assets in volatile jurisdictions like Mali through three primary lenses: 1. Sovereign Risk and Asset Seizure (The "Provisional Administration" Discount) The risk reached its zenith in June 2025 when a Malian court placed the Loulo-Gounkoto complex under provisional state control for six months. This move effectively transitioned the risk from "regulatory friction" to "asset expropriation." Quantification: During this period, analysts applied a "zero-value" scenario for the Malian segment in Net Asset Value (NAV) models, or a steep discount rate (WACC) exceeding 20% to account for the loss of operational control. 2. Regulatory Transition and Fiscal Leakage The resolution of the dispute involved Barrick’s formal adoption of the 2023 Mining Code. This shift fundamentally alters the long-term cash flow profile of the asset. State Participation: The Malian government’s interest increased from 20% to 35% (including local private investors). Economic Benefit Sharing: Barrick agreed to a framework where the state receives approximately 55% of the total economic benefits, mirroring the "Tanzanian model" previously implemented by CEO Mark Bristow. 3. Human Capital and Operational Continuity Risk The detention of four senior employees from November 2024 until late 2025 introduced a "human capital premium." This risk is quantified by the cost of operational paralysis; operations were suspended in mid-January 2025, leading to a total loss of primary production for the fiscal year. Impact on FY 2025 Production Targets The geopolitical standoff resulted in the effective removal of Loulo-Gounkoto from Barrick’s FY 2025 consolidated output. Guidance Exclusion: In February 2025, Barrick officially excluded the complex from its annual guidance. The revised FY 2025 target was set at 3.15–3.5 million ounces of gold, representing a significant downward revision from the 3.9–4.3 million ounces typically expected when Mali is operational. Production Loss: Loulo-Gounkoto, which produced over 720,000 oz in 2024 (roughly 14% of Barrick's global output), contributed negligible attributable production in 2025. While a state-appointed administrator attempted to restart blasting in October 2025, these volumes did not accrue to Barrick’s financial reporting during the period of lost control. Restart Timeline: Following the November 2025 agreement, operations are slated for a full restart on January 1, 2026 . Consequently, FY 2025 is characterized as a "lost year" for Malian production, with the focus now shifting to a recovery in FY 2026. Financial and Strategic Implications The resolution has provided a "clearing event" for the stock, though at a substantial fiscal cost. Tax Settlement: While the government initially demanded $500 million in unpaid taxes, Barrick made an initial payment of $85 million in October 2024. The final settlement terms, though not fully disclosed, involved dropping all criminal charges and withdrawing Barrick’s World Bank (ICSID) arbitration claims. Permit Extension: A critical de-risking factor was the 10-year extension of the Loulo mining permit granted in February 2026. This provides a clear runway for the asset, which still boasts 16 years of underground reserves. Market Reaction: Upon the announcement of the resolution in late November 2025, Barrick’s shares surged 8.5% to a record high of C$55.93 in Toronto, reflecting the market's relief at the removal of the "Mali overhang." Summary of Geopolitical Risk Metrics | Metric | Pre-Dispute (2023) | Crisis Peak (Mid-2025) | Post-Resolution (2026) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | State Ownership | 20% | 100% (Provisional) | 35% | | Mali Production (oz) | ~720k | 0 (Suspended) | ~420k (Est. 2026) | | Implied Discount Rate | 10-12% | 25%+ | 14-16% | | Legal Status | Stable | Arbitration/Criminal Charges | Resolved/Permit Extended |

Given that spot gold prices have sustained record levels throughout early 2025, to what degree is Barrick Gold successfully translating these price gains into free cash flow expansion versus being offset by rising All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) at the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture?

In early 2025, Barrick Gold (GOLD) demonstrated a robust ability to translate record spot gold prices into significant free cash flow (FCF) expansion. While All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) at the Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) joint venture and across the group did rise, the magnitude of gold price appreciation far outpaced cost inflation, leading to record-breaking margins and a near-tripling of annual FCF. Free Cash Flow Expansion and Financial Performance Barrick successfully leveraged the gold price rally to deliver its strongest financial performance in over a decade. For the full year 2025, the company reported a massive surge in liquidity and cash generation: Free Cash Flow (FCF): Expanded to $3.87 billion in FY 2025, a 194% increase compared to $1.32 billion in 2024. Operating Cash Flow: Rose 71% year-over-year to $7.69 billion . Revenue: Reached $16.96 billion , a 31% increase driven primarily by realized gold prices, which averaged $2,898/oz in Q1 2025 and surged to over $4,100/oz by Q4 2025. Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) Cost Dynamics The Nevada Gold Mines joint venture (61.5% Barrick, 38.5% Newmont) remains Barrick’s "value foundation," but it faced persistent cost headwinds throughout 2025. The translation of price gains was partially moderated by rising AISC, though not enough to stall margin expansion. AISC Trends: Group AISC for 2025 was $1,637 per ounce , up 10% from 2024. At NGM specifically, AISC fluctuated but remained elevated, ending Q4 2025 at approximately $1,508 per ounce . Drivers of Rising AISC: Royalties: Higher realized gold prices automatically triggered higher royalty payments, which added approximately $50/oz to sustaining costs. Operational Headwinds: Costs were impacted by lower grades at certain NGM pits and inflationary pressure on key consumables (cyanide, explosives, and energy). Maintenance: Planned maintenance at NGM facilities in early 2025 temporarily restricted output, though production recovered in the second half of the year, led by a 25% sequential increase at the Carlin complex in Q4. Margin Analysis: Price vs. Cost The critical factor in Barrick’s 2025 success was the widening spread between realized prices and AISC. Despite the 10% rise in group AISC, the realized gold price rose by more than 40% on average through the year. Unit Profitability: In Q4 2025, the spread between Barrick’s realized price ( $4,177/oz ) and its AISC ( $1,581/oz ) reached a record $2,596 per ounce . Operating Margins: Group profit margins expanded to 40.1% by year-end, up from 27.3% in late 2024. Strategic Implications and Capital Allocation The massive FCF expansion allowed Barrick to shift its narrative toward aggressive shareholder returns and long-term growth funding: 1. Shareholder Returns: Barrick repurchased $1.50 billion in shares (approx. 3% of float) and implemented a new dividend policy targeting a 50% payout of attributable FCF. 2. Growth Projects: The company is fully funding the Reko Diq (Pakistan) and Lumwana Super Pit (Zambia) expansions from internal cash flow, targeting a 30% increase in gold-equivalent production by 2030. 3. Portfolio Optimization: To further unlock value, Barrick announced preparations for an IPO of its North American gold assets (including NGM and the Fourmile project) in early 2026, seeking to close the valuation gap with pure-play North American peers.

As Barrick Gold accelerates its 'copper-gold' strategy via the Reko Diq and Lumwana expansion projects, what are the immediate capital expenditure implications for the company's dividend policy and share buyback program heading into the next quarterly update?

As of February 2026, Barrick Gold (NYSE: B) has entered a critical phase of its "copper-gold" transition, marked by a significant pivot in its capital allocation framework. The acceleration of the $5.6B Reko Diq (Phase 1) and $2B Lumwana Super Pit expansion has necessitated a structural shift from opportunistic share buybacks toward a formalized, free cash flow (FCF)-linked dividend policy. 🏗️ Capital Expenditure Profile: Reko Diq & Lumwana Barrick’s growth strategy is currently dominated by two "Tier One" copper-gold assets, which are expected to increase the company's gold-equivalent production by 30% by the end of the decade. Reko Diq (Pakistan): With a total Phase 1 capital cost estimated at $5.6B , the project is currently in the early stages of construction (started 2025). To mitigate the immediate impact on group-level FCF, Barrick is securing over $2B in limited-recourse project financing from a consortium of multilateral lenders, including the IFC and ADB. Lumwana Expansion (Zambia): The $2B "Super Pit" expansion is ahead of schedule, with full production targeted for 2027. This project is being funded primarily through internal cash flow, supported by Lumwana’s own operational margins. Total Group CapEx: For the 2025–2026 period, annual project CapEx is budgeted in the range of $3.1B – $3.6B . This represents a substantial increase from the $2.6B spent in 2024. 💰 Dividend Policy Transformation In the Q4 2025 update (February 2026), Barrick replaced its previous "Performance Dividend Policy" with a more transparent, FCF-driven model. This shift is designed to provide predictable returns even as CapEx intensifies. New Payout Target: The board now targets a total annual payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow. Base Dividend Increase: The fixed quarterly base dividend was raised by 40% to $0.175 per share (up from the previous $0.125 ). Variable Component: A "performance top-up" is declared at year-end based on the remaining FCF after accounting for growth CapEx and balance sheet requirements. For Q4 2025, this resulted in a total dividend of $0.42 per share. 📉 Share Buyback Program: Non-Renewal The most immediate implication of the accelerating CapEx for Reko Diq and Lumwana is the cessation of the annual share buyback program. Strategic Pivot: Following the repurchase of 51.9M shares for $1.5B in 2025, the board determined not to renew the buyback program for 2026. Reasoning: Management has prioritized the 50% FCF dividend payout and the funding of the $7.6B combined copper-gold pipeline. By eliminating buybacks, Barrick preserves liquidity to maintain its "fortress balance sheet," which currently holds a $2B net cash position. ⚠️ Risks and Forward-Looking Constraints Heading into the next quarterly update, several factors may influence the sustainability of these returns: 1. Security & Geopolitical Friction: Reko Diq is currently under a security review following increased regional incidents, which could lead to unforeseen "protective CapEx" or timeline delays. 2. North American IPO (NewCo): Barrick is preparing for an IPO of its North American gold assets by late 2026. This restructuring is intended to unlock value but may also lead to a re-evaluation of the parent company’s dividend capacity post-separation. 3. Cost Inflation: While AISC for 2026 is guided at $1,760 – $1,950 per ounce, any further escalation in labor or energy costs in Zambia or Pakistan would directly compress the FCF available for the "top-up" dividend component.

Gold.com, Inc. (GOLD) Stock Price & AI Analysis

GoAI Score

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Valuation

50Fair Value

Sentiment

37Bearish

Risk

100Low Risk

Momentum

100Positive

Institutional-Grade Intelligence

🏆PRO

Actionable Intelligence

AI-driven stance, execution logic & risk thresholds

Catalyst Roadmap

Event timeline with expected impact & market context

Deep Insights

Fact-checked analysis & score logic breakdown

Financial Statements

Margin Trends

Gross

1.9%▲0.1pp

Revenue after COGS

Operating

0.4%▼0.3pp

After operating expenses

Net

0.2%▼0.5pp

Bottom-line profitability

Gross Margin

Operating Margin

Net Margin

Valuation Snapshot

P/E Ratio

30.3

Price vs earnings

EV/EBITDA

15.0

Enterprise value

FCF Yield

27.0%

Cash generation

Earnings Yield

3.3%

Inverse of P/E

Capital Efficiency

2

GoAI Quality ScoreWeak

ROEReturn on Equity

2.7%Fair

ROAReturn on Assets

0.8%Fair

ROICReturn on Invested Capital

2.2%Fair

Financial Health

Current RatioHealthy

1.56

Short-term solvency (>1.5)

Net Debt / EBITDAHigh

9.17x

Debt repayment capacity (<3x)

Income QualityStrong

9.62

Cash backs earnings (>1)

Revenue & Profitability

Revenue

Net Income

Net Loss

Income Statement

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021
Revenue	$10.98B	$9.70B	$9.29B	$8.16B	$7.61B
Gross Profit	$210.92M	$173.25M	$294.67M	$261.76M	$210.20M
Gross Margin	1.9%	1.8%	3.2%	3.2%	2.8%
Operating Income	$48.80M	$72.06M	$196.86M	$157.85M	$151.39M
Net Income	$17.32M	$68.55M	$156.36M	$132.54M	$159.64M
Net Margin	0.2%	0.7%	1.7%	1.6%	2.1%
EPS	$0.73	$2.97	$6.68	$5.81	$9.57

Average Price Target

$56.67▼ 3.7% Downside

Past 12 Months

12 Month Forecast

Based on 50 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Gold.com, Inc., the average price target is $56.67, with a high forecast of $60.00 and a low forecast of $53.00. The average price target represents a 3.7% decrease from the current price of $58.82.

Highest

$60.00

Average

$56.67

Lowest

$53.00

Rating Distribution

Strong Buy

0

0%

Buy

19

56%

Hold

14

41%

Sell

1

3%

Strong Sell

0

0%

Recent Analyst Ratings

FirmActionRatingDate

DA Davidson● Maintain

Buy

2026-02-06

DA Davidson● Maintain

Buy

2026-01-27

DA Davidson● Maintain

Buy

2025-09-10

Scotiabank● Maintain

Sector Perform

2025-04-14

UBS● Maintain

Buy

2025-04-11

RBC Capital● Maintain

Outperform

2025-04-04

Raymond James● Maintain

Outperform

2025-03-31

UBS▲ Upgrade

Neutral→Buy

2025-03-05

Scotiabank● Maintain

Sector Perform

2025-02-18

B of A Securities▼ Downgrade

Buy→Neutral

2025-01-27

Earnings History & Surprises

BEAT RATE

50%

Last 18 quarters

AVG SURPRISE

+2.3%

EPS vs Estimate

BEATS / MISSES

9/9

Last 18 quarters

LATEST EPS

$0.91

Q1 '26

QUARTERLY EPS TREND

Estimated

Beat

Miss

QUARTERLY DETAIL

Q1 '26

+30.0%

$0.91 vs $0.70

Q4 '25

-76.7%

$0.20 vs $0.86

Q3 '25

+33.3%

$0.76 vs $0.57

Q2 '25

-69.2%

$0.24 vs $0.78

Q1 '25

-15.4%

$0.55 vs $0.65

Q4 '24

-37.8%

$0.61 vs $0.98

Q3 '24

-41.0%

$0.85 vs $1.44

Q2 '24

-53.3%

$0.49 vs $1.05

Q1 '24

-26.8%

$0.90 vs $1.23

Q4 '23

-27.4%

$0.77 vs $1.06

Q3 '23

+18.8%

$1.71 vs $1.44

Q2 '23

+25.9%

$1.46 vs $1.16

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