With Newmont (NEM) finalizing its fiscal year 2026 operational guidance, how do the projected All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) reflect the full realization of the $500 million Newcrest synergy targets, and what specific margin expansion is expected from the high-grade production ramp-up at the Tanami Expansion 2 project?

Newmont (NEM) has finalized its fiscal year 2026 operational guidance, positioning the year as a strategic "trough" in its production cycle as it integrates the Newcrest portfolio and advances major capital projects. While the company has confirmed the full realization of the $500 million annual synergy target, the 2026 All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) reflect a complex interplay between these savings and temporary operational headwinds. 📊 2026 AISC and Synergy Integration Newmont’s projected gold by-product AISC for 2026 is $1,680 per ounce, a significant increase from the $1,358 reported for FY 2025. This figure incorporates the full $500 million in pre-tax synergies, which have been achieved through: G&A and Supply Chain: Approximately $300 million in combined savings from corporate overhead reduction and centralized procurement. Operational Improvements: $200 million derived from the "Full Potential" program applied to former Newcrest assets, particularly at Cadia and Lihir. Despite these synergies, the AISC is pressured upward by $322 per ounce YoY due to planned mine sequencing at high-margin sites like Peñasquito and Cadia, as well as recovery costs from the Boddington bushfires and a new tax regime in Ghana. Without the realized synergies, management indicates that the 2026 cost floor would have been substantially higher. 🏗️ Tanami Expansion 2: Production and Margin Impact The Tanami Expansion 2 (TE2) project is a critical driver for Newmont’s post-2026 growth, though its primary financial impact is weighted toward late 2027. Operational Timeline: TE2 is scheduled for delivery in H2 2027 . In 2026, the project remains in a heavy development phase with a capital allocation of approximately $1.4 billion (shared with Cadia Panel Caves). Production Ramp-up: Once operational, TE2 is expected to increase average annual production by 150,000 to 200,000 ounces. Margin Expansion: The project is designed to reduce Tanami’s site-specific operating costs by approximately 30% . This expansion is driven by the transition to a 1,460-meter hoisting shaft, which replaces long-haul trucking and enables access to higher-grade ore at depth. ⚠️ Risks and Strategic Limitations Sequencing Risk: The 2026 guidance relies heavily on the successful transition of the Cadia panel caves and the completion of the Boddington stripping campaign. Any delays in these "bridge" activities could further elevate AISC. Inflationary Pressure: While synergies are locked in, Newmont remains exposed to labor and energy inflation in Australia and North America, which may offset some of the technical cost improvements at Tanami. Gold Price Sensitivity: With AISC at $1,680 , Newmont’s margins remain robust at current spot prices (>$2,500/oz), but the company’s free cash flow sensitivity is approximately $400 million for every $100 change in the gold price.

Following the recent progress in Newmont's (NEM) $2 billion non-core asset divestiture program, how should investors assess the impact of these disposals on the company's 2026 production floor and the subsequent capacity for accelerated share repurchases under the current capital allocation framework?

Newmont Corporation (NEM) has successfully transitioned into its post-divestiture phase as of early 2026, having exceeded its initial $2.0B non-core asset disposal target to realize $4.5B in total after-tax proceeds. This portfolio optimization has fundamentally reshaped the company’s production profile and strengthened its balance sheet, allowing for a more aggressive capital return strategy under its newly enhanced capital allocation framework. Divestiture Program Completion & Financial Impact The divestiture program, concluded in early 2025 and finalized with equity monetizations through early 2026, involved the sale of six non-core assets: Akyem (Ghana), Porcupine (Canada), Musselwhite (Canada), Éléonore (Canada), CC&V (USA), and the Telfer/Havieron interest (Australia). Proceeds Realization: The program generated $4.5B in total after-tax proceeds, significantly higher than the initial $2.0B guidance. Debt Reduction: These proceeds, combined with record $7.3B free cash flow (FCF) in 2025, enabled Newmont to reduce debt by $3.4B . Net Cash Position: The company entered 2026 in a strong net cash position of $2.1B , with total liquidity of $11.6B . 2026 Production Floor: The "Trough" Year The disposal of higher-cost, shorter-life assets has lowered the absolute production ceiling but established a more profitable "production floor." For 2026, Newmont has guided for a planned production trough before returning to growth in 2027. 2026 Guidance: Attributable gold production is expected to be approximately 5.3M ounces . This represents a -10% decline from 2025 levels ( 5.9M ounces ). Operational Drivers: The 2026 floor is influenced by planned mine sequencing at Ahafo South, Peñasquito, and Cadia, alongside recovery efforts at Boddington following late-2025 bushfires. Core Portfolio Focus: Of the 2026 total, over 3.9M ounces will come from managed operations. The company maintains a long-term production target of 6.0M ounces of gold and 150,000 tonnes of copper annually starting in 2027. Capital Allocation & Share Repurchase Capacity With the divestiture program complete and the balance sheet deleveraged, Newmont has shifted its focus to "ratable" share repurchases and a sustainable dividend. Enhanced Framework: The company has committed to a sustainable annual dividend of $1.1B (approximately $0.26 per share quarterly). Buyback Authorization: As of February 2026, $2.4B remains available under the current $6.0B share repurchase authorization. Accelerated Capacity: Management has indicated that excess cash above its $1.0B net cash target will be prioritized for buybacks. Given the current $2.1B net cash position and robust gold prices (averaging over $3,200/oz in 2025), Newmont has the immediate capacity to execute the remaining $2.4B in buybacks throughout 2026. Per-Share Accretion: The strategy aims to permanently lower the share count, allowing the $1.1B fixed dividend commitment to translate into higher dividends per share over time. Risks and Strategic Considerations While the financial position is robust, investors should monitor several execution risks: Cost Pressures: 2026 All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) are projected to rise to $1,680/oz due to mine sequencing and inflationary pressures. Project Execution: The return to growth in 2027 depends on the successful ramp-up of Ahafo North and the Tanami Expansion 2. Commodity Sensitivity: While the balance sheet is resilient, a significant correction in gold prices could moderate the pace of "ratable" buybacks if the company chooses to preserve its $5.0B minimum cash balance through the cycle.

Given the volatility in gold prices in early 2026 and shifting central bank policies, what is the sensitivity of Newmont's (NEM) free cash flow yield to current spot prices, and how does the company's current debt-to-EBITDA ratio influence its ability to maintain the fixed-plus-variable dividend payout through the 2026 calendar year?

Newmont Corporation (NEM) enters the 2026 calendar year in a position of significant financial strength, characterized by record cash flow generation and a fortified balance sheet. Following the full integration of Newcrest assets and a strategic portfolio rationalization, the company has transitioned to an "Enhanced Capital Allocation Framework" that prioritizes a sustainable, fixed-dollar dividend commitment supported by a near-zero leverage profile. Free Cash Flow (FCF) Sensitivity & Yield Analysis Newmont’s free cash flow yield is highly sensitive to gold spot prices due to its massive production scale and relatively fixed cost base. For the 2026 fiscal year, Newmont has guided to attributable gold production of approximately 5.3 million ounces . Gold Price Sensitivity: Based on 2026 production guidance, every $100/oz change in the average realized gold price impacts Newmont’s pre-tax cash flow by approximately $530 million . After accounting for prevailing tax rates and royalties, the net FCF impact is estimated at $350M – $400M per $100/oz movement. Margin Profile: With 2026 All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) guided at $1,680 per ounce and early 2026 spot prices hovering near $5,000 per ounce , Newmont is operating with an implied cash margin of roughly $3,320 per ounce . FCF Yield: At current market capitalization levels exceeding $135 billion , the company’s trailing twelve-month (TTM) FCF yield stands at approximately 4.8% . However, forward-looking yield projections remain volatile as they must account for $1.95 billion in sustaining capital and $1.4 billion in development capital planned for 2026. Dividend Sustainability & Capital Allocation Framework In February 2026, Newmont shifted its payout strategy from a "fixed-plus-variable" model to a more institutional-grade "Sustainable Through the Cycle" framework. Fixed Commitment: The company has committed to a total annual dividend payout of $1.1 billion . For Q1 2026, this resulted in a quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share (an annualized $1.04 per share ). Variable Growth via Buybacks: Rather than a formulaic variable dividend, Newmont now uses "ratable share repurchases" to drive per-share dividend growth. By reducing the total share count, the company can increase the dividend per share without increasing its total $1.1 billion cash commitment. Payout Ratio: The current dividend represents a conservative payout of approximately 15% – 17% of 2025 FCF, suggesting a high margin of safety for the 2026 calendar year. Leverage & Balance Sheet Influence Newmont’s ability to maintain its dividend through 2026 is anchored by its exceptionally low leverage and "Net Cash" position. Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio: As of early 2026, Newmont’s Debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 0.44x , significantly below its historical median of 1.84x and well within the "investment grade" threshold (typically $2.1 billion and total liquidity of $11.6 billion . Management has established a long-term target of maintaining a $1 billion net cash balance (with a $2 billion flexibility range). Resilience: This "near-zero" net debt profile ensures that even if gold prices experience a sharp correction or if 2026 AISC exceeds guidance due to inflationary pressures, the company has the liquidity to fund its $3.35 billion total 2026 capital program and the $1.1 billion dividend without stressing the balance sheet. Key Risks & Uncertainties Operational Sequencing: 2026 production is expected to be lower than 2025 levels ( 5.3M oz vs 5.9M oz ) due to planned mine sequencing at Peñasquito and Cadia. Cost Offsets: Management has cautioned that at spot prices near $5,000/oz , the benefits of cost-saving initiatives may be partially offset by higher gold-linked charges, including royalties, profit-sharing, and production taxes. Capital Intensity: Elevated sustaining capital spend ( $1.95B ) for tailings facilities at Cadia and Boddington represents a mandatory cash outflow that takes precedence over variable shareholder returns.

Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Price & AI Analysis

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Valuation

50Fair Value

Sentiment

79Bullish

Risk

100Low Risk

Momentum

100Positive

Institutional-Grade Intelligence

🏆PRO

Actionable Intelligence

AI-driven stance, execution logic & risk thresholds

Catalyst Roadmap

Event timeline with expected impact & market context

Deep Insights

Fact-checked analysis & score logic breakdown

Financial Statements

Margin Trends

Gross

64.3%▲29.7pp

Revenue after COGS

Operating

60.8%▲29.9pp

After operating expenses

Net

31.6%▲13.6pp

Bottom-line profitability

Gross Margin

Operating Margin

Net Margin

Valuation Snapshot

P/E Ratio

15.4

Price vs earnings

EV/EBITDA

9.1

Enterprise value

FCF Yield

9.4%

Cash generation

Earnings Yield

6.5%

Inverse of P/E

Capital Efficiency

20

GoAI Quality ScoreStrong

ROEReturn on Equity

21.2%Strong

ROAReturn on Assets

12.5%Strong

ROICReturn on Invested Capital

21.5%Strong

Financial Health

Current RatioHealthy

1.72

Short-term solvency (>1.5)

Net Debt / EBITDANet Cash

-0.63x

Debt repayment capacity (<3x)

Income QualityStrong

1.44

Cash backs earnings (>1)

Revenue & Profitability

Revenue

Net Income

Net Loss

Income Statement

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021
Revenue	$22.67B	$18.56B	$11.78B	$11.95B	$12.19B
Gross Profit	$14.58B	$6.42B	$1.17B	$2.14B	$2.38B
Gross Margin	64.3%	34.6%	9.9%	17.9%	19.5%
Operating Income	$13.79B	$5.75B	$650.00M	$1.62B	$1.92B
Net Income	$7.17B	$3.35B	-$2.52B	-$459.00M	$1.17B
Net Margin	31.6%	18.0%	-21.4%	-3.8%	9.6%
EPS	$6.41	$2.86	-$3.00	-$0.58	$1.46

Average Price Target

$127.57▲ 4.5% Upside

Past 12 Months

12 Month Forecast

Based on 50 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Newmont Corporation, the average price target is $127.57, with a high forecast of $177.00 and a low forecast of $72.00. The average price target represents a 4.5% increase from the current price of $122.13.

Highest

$177.00

Average

$127.57

Lowest

$72.00

Rating Distribution

Strong Buy

0

0%

Buy

25

71%

Hold

10

29%

Sell

0

0%

Strong Sell

0

0%

Recent Analyst Ratings

FirmActionRatingDate

Scotiabank● Maintain

Sector Outperform

2026-01-26

UBS● Maintain

Buy

2025-12-01

Scotiabank▲ Upgrade

Sector Perform→Sector Outperform

2025-10-23

B of A Securities● Maintain

Buy

2025-10-16

UBS● Maintain

Buy

2025-10-16

Citigroup● Maintain

Buy

2025-10-15

CIBC▲ Upgrade

Neutral→Outperform

2025-10-10

Raymond James● Maintain

Outperform

2025-09-23

UBS● Maintain

Buy

2025-09-19

RBC Capital▲ Upgrade

Sector Perform→Outperform

2025-09-10

Earnings History & Surprises

BEAT RATE

50%

Last 18 quarters

AVG SURPRISE

+7.8%

EPS vs Estimate

BEATS / MISSES

9/9

Last 18 quarters

LATEST EPS

$2.52

Q1 '26

QUARTERLY EPS TREND

Estimated

Beat

Miss

QUARTERLY DETAIL

Q1 '26

+21.7%

$2.52 vs $2.07

Q4 '25

+18.8%

$1.71 vs $1.44

Q3 '25

+58.0%

$1.43 vs $0.91

Q2 '25

+36.5%

$1.25 vs $0.92

Q1 '25

+26.1%

$1.40 vs $1.11

Q4 '24

-5.8%

$0.81 vs $0.86

Q3 '24

+16.1%

$0.72 vs $0.62

Q2 '24

+53.0%

$0.55 vs $0.36

Q1 '24

-2.0%

$0.50 vs $0.51

Q4 '23

-14.3%

$0.36 vs $0.42

Q3 '23

-15.4%

$0.33 vs $0.39

Q2 '23

+21.2%

$0.40 vs $0.33

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