TL;DR
- Confirmed Date & Time: October 14, 2026, before market open
- Fiscal Quarter: Q3 2026
- Consensus Estimates: EPS of $12.07; Revenue of $13.16B (USD ADR basis vs. company guidance of €11.0B–€12.0B)
- Implied Move: ±8.1% (~$150 per ADR share)
- Single Biggest Swing Factor: Q3 net EUV/DUV order intake and management commentary on 2027 capacity expansion commitments versus foundry customer node deployment schedules.
Setup Overview
ASML enters its Q3 2026 print with sell-side consensus estimates trending lower, juxtaposed against strong fundamentals from major customers. In the Q2 2026 release, management raised full-year 2026 net sales guidance to €43B–€45B (up from €36B–€40B) and gross margin to 54%–56% (up from 51%–53%), while targeting Q3 sales of €11.0B–€12.0B with 55%–57% gross margin. Crucially, management outlined plans to expand low-NA EUV capacity by 30% (~85 systems) and DUV immersion capacity by 30% for 2027. Guidance has remained unchanged heading into the print.
Peer disclosures present a robust macro backdrop: TSMC reported Jan–Aug 2026 revenue growth of 39.3% YoY driven by accelerated 2nm expansion; Lam Research raised calendar 2026 WFE expectations to the low-$150B range on NAND recovery; Applied Materials reported +24.8% YoY growth; and Intel confirmed volume integration of ASML High-NA EUV on its 18A node.
Historical Pattern
ASML has beaten EPS consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters (75% beat rate), delivering beats in Q4 2024, Q1 2025, Q3 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026, while missing in Q2 2025 and Q4 2025. Historical market reactions highlight significant asymmetry: Q2 2026 yielded a moderate +2.87% reaction on a solid beat, whereas Q3 2024 triggered a -15.60% drop following net bookings weakness. This reinforces that ASML stock is predominantly driven by net bookings intake and forward guidance rather than immediate quarter headline numbers.
What to Watch
- Net EUV Bookings & Order Intake: The key swing variable. Investors need assurance that Q3 bookings support the targeted 30% low-NA EUV expansion (~85 systems) for 2027.
- Gross Margin Execution: Management guided Q3 gross margin to 55%–57%. Shifts in EUV vs. DUV shipment mix will determine whether margins hit the upper end.
- High-NA EUV Adoption: Commentary regarding High-NA unit deliveries and customer validation following Intel's 18A deployment.
- Installed Base Management: Guidance anticipates ~€2.9B in service revenues for Q3.
- China Revenue Mix: Any updates regarding regulatory export controls or shifting mature-node DUV demand from Chinese fabs.