Attention! These Economic Data Will Significantly Impact the Market This Week

🇺🇸 On Friday (September 6) 🌟🌟🌟

August non-farm employment report

Expected: 165,000

Previous value: 114,000

Unemployment Rate for August

Expected: 4.2%

Previous value: 4.3%

The non-farm employment report released in July showed that the non-farm employment population increased by 114,000 in July, the lowest record since December 2020, far less than the expected 175,000, and a sharp drop from the previous value of 206,000 (revised down to 179,000); the unemployment rate in July rose by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 4.3%, setting a record high since October 2021, exceeding the expected 4.1%.

As the July non-farm data was far below expectations and the unemployment rate triggered the Sam Rule, a recession indicator with an accuracy rate of 100%, market panic was ignited. After the data was released, traders began to bet on the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September and predicted that the interest rate cut this year would exceed 110 basis points.

In addition, the revised annual employment data for March released at the end of August showed that the annual non-farm employment was significantly revised down by 818,000. In the past three months, employment growth reached 170,000 per month, indicating that the labor market has further weakened, increasing the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut.

According to Bloomberg survey data, economists currently generally expect that the number of non-farm employment in the United States in August will increase from 114,000 last month to 165,000, and the unemployment rate will drop by 0.1 percentage point to 4.2%, showing that the job market is still resilient.

🇺🇸 On Thursday (September 5)🌟🌟

August ADP employment report

Expected: 14,8000

Previous value: 122,000

ADP employment is known as the "small non-farm". The previously announced July ADP new employment fell more than expected, and the wage growth rate fell to the lowest level in three years, sending a signal of a slowdown in the US labor market and further consolidating expectations of a September rate cut.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said that as wage growth slows, the labor market is changing with the Fed's efforts to curb inflation. If inflation rises again, it will not be because of labor.

At present, economists generally expect that the number of ADP jobs in August will rise from the previous value of 122,000 to 148,000, once again sending signs of a warming job market.

🇺🇸 On Tuesday (September 3)🌟🌟

August ISM manufacturing index

Expected: 47.5

Previous value: 46.8

Data released in July showed that the U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 46.8, lower than the expected 49 and 48.5 in June. Looking at the sub-items, employment, output and new orders all weakened significantly, which once again triggered concerns about the U.S. economy falling into recession.

However compared with service consumption, interest rate-sensitive real estate manufacturing and other industries were the most affected. Slowdown and recession cannot be equated without distinction. Comparing the "soft landing" of slowdown and the "hard landing" of recession, we must first look at the depth of the decline and secondly whether the Fed's interest rate cut can "save it".

At present, economists generally expect that the August ISM manufacturing index will rise from 46.8 last month to 47.5, falling below the boom-bust line for the fifth consecutive month. #Economy #MarketTrend