ADDX Go Market Morning Wrap - 2024 Oct 8th

Market Key Focus

Equities: China's stock market is poised to reopen, with investors concentrating on potential fiscal stimulus measures.

Crypto: The overall crypto market experienced moderate volatility

US Treasury Bonds: Japanese Achieve Record U.S. Sovereign Bond Purchases in August

FX: USD halts momentum following robust employment data

Gold and oil: Gold prices decreased by 0.4% to $2,642, while silver prices dropped by 1.6% to $31.69.

Oil: Oil reaches highest level in six weeks due to Middle East tensions.

Smart Money Tracking

ARKK Investment Holdings Update:

Reduced its holdings of Tesla by 28,180 shares, a decrease of 0.82% from the previous period, and currently accounts for 15.77% of the total holdings. （Oct 2nd)

Reduced its holdings of Roku Inc by 67,380 shares, a decrease of 0.82% from the previous period, and currently accounts for 10.87% of the total holdings.

Stocks to Focus

Jefferies downgraded Apple's rating, saying that the market is too optimistic about Apple's AI phones. Apple's stock price fell by more than 1.2% at one point.
Google suffered a heavy blow in the antitrust case, and its dominance in the Android app market may be overturned. A US judge issued a permanent injunction, forcing Google to provide an alternative to the Google Play Store for Android phones to download apps.
SMCI said it has shipped over 100,000 GPUs using its new liquid cooling solution in the first quarter, and its stock price rose nearly 18% during trading.

Market events

Exports(Aug)

Previous: 266.6B

Imports(Aug)

Previous: 345.4B

Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Previous: 2.5%

Forecast: 2.5%

Macros

In August 2024, retail sales in the Euro Area increased by 0.2%, following no change in July and aligning with market expectations. The sales saw an upswing in automotive fuel, which rose 1.1% after a decline of 0.6% in July, and non-food products, which increased by 0.3% compared to a decrease of 0.1% previously. There were also slight gains in sales of food, drinks, and tobacco products, rising by 0.2% from the 0.1% increase in the prior month. Luxembourg led the gains with a 5.3% increase in sales, followed by Cyprus at 2.2% and Portugal at 1.3%. France and Spain also reported gains of 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, while Italy's sales remained unchanged. Conversely, sales dropped in Croatia by 0.7%, in Ireland by 0.6%, in Malta by 0.1%, in Slovakia by 1.1%, and in Slovenia by 0.6%. On an annual basis, retail sales in the Euro Area rose by 0.8%.
In the UK, the Halifax House Price Index recorded a 4.7% year-on-year increase in September 2024, marking the largest rise since November 2022. This followed a 4.3% rise in August, attributed to the base effect of weaker prices the previous year. Monthly house prices increased by 0.3%, consistent with the rise seen in August and surpassing the forecast of 0.2%.
Germany experienced a drop in factory orders by 5.8% month-on-month in August, exceeding the anticipated decline of 2.0% and following a 3.9% increase in July. This was the sharpest decline since January, largely due to a surge in large orders in July. Orders for capital goods fell by 8.6%, for intermediate goods by 2.2%, and for consumer goods by 0.9%. Foreign orders dipped by 2.2%, including a significant 10.5% drop from the Eurozone, while demand from non-Eurozone countries increased by 3.4%. Domestic orders plummeted by 10.9%. Excluding large orders, incoming orders fell by 3.4%. Between June and August, new orders were 0.7% higher compared to the previous three-month period.

Earnings

Before Open

PepsiCo: EPS forecast 2.29, Revenue forecast 23.9B

Accolade: EPS forecast -0.4444, Revenue forecast 105M

After Close

Saratoga: EPS forecast 0.9437, Revenue forecast 37.06M

Equities

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined by 1% and 1.2%, respectively, while the Dow Jones dropped 398 points. This occurred as benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4% for the first time since August. A strong jobs report prompted investors to adjust their expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts, reducing the probability of a 0.50% rate cut in November and leaving an 84% chance for a smaller 0.25% cut. Key inflation data, along with earnings reports from major banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Bank of New York Mellon, are expected this week. The utilities, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors saw declines, whereas the energy sector experienced gains. Among tech giants, Apple fell by 2.2%, Microsoft by 1.6%, Alphabet by 2.4%, Amazon by 3%, and Meta by 1.9%, while Nvidia rose by 2.5%. The Hang Seng surged 1.6% to 23,100 on Monday, reaching its highest point since early 2022, with gains across all sectors. Investors increased their positions in anticipation of China's stock market reopening on Tuesday following a week-long break. Goldman Sachs upgraded its outlook on Chinese stocks to overweight, predicting a 15%-20% rise if Beijing follows through with promised policy measures. China is expected to hold a media briefing on Tuesday to discuss economic stimulus.