Bitcoin Rises 4% Amid Long Liquidations and Shifting Short-Term Holder Activity

Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $63,000 on Friday after Mt. Gox postponed its repayment plans to 2025, alleviating investor concerns. CryptoQuant data shows that long liquidations reached $290 million on Thursday—the highest level since June 2022.

Bitcoin’s Moves Leading into the Weekend

Bitcoin initially dropped below $60,000 on Friday, following speculation that a second Fed rate cut might not be needed. Market anxiety triggered the decline, but prices rebounded once the Mt. Gox repayment delay was announced.

Between October 1 and 11, Bitcoin fell by 11%, causing heavy liquidations of long positions. CryptoQuant reported $290 million in liquidations over Wednesday and Thursday, marking the most significant amount since 2022.

Since the April halving, Bitcoin has moved sideways for nearly 200 days. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, warns that without a bull rally in the next two weeks, this would mark Bitcoin’s longest sideways trend post-halving.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt also pointed out that Bitcoin has remained below its all-time high of $72K for 30 weeks. Historically, Bitcoin has declined by over 75% when it fails to set new highs within this window, suggesting the potential for further downside.

The short-term holder (STH) threshold has hovered around $62,000 for the past three months. However, CryptoQuant data reveals that the STH realized share fell from 55% three months ago to 40% now, signaling that short-term holders may respond more sharply to future price changes.

Despite the sideways movement, I believe the bull market is still active. They compare the current cycle to those in 2013 and 2020, where long-term investors locked in profits twice before Bitcoin hit new all-time highs.

Currently, $66,500 serves as Bitcoin's first resistance level. If broken, prices could test the $70,000 zone. Any positive catalysts next week could push BTC past this resistance range. For now, with no strong bull signals, the RSI sits at 53.76, indicating a neutral stance.