ADDX Go Market Morning Wrap - 18th Nov

Market Key Focus

US Market

- Markets

The S&P 500 closed down 78.55 points, or 1.32%, at 5,870.62, and fell 2.08% last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is closely related to the economic cycle, closed down 305.87 points, or 0.70%, at 43,444.99, and fell 1.24% last week.

The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, closed down 427.53 points, or 2.24%, at 18,680.12, and fell 3.15% this week.

The Russell 2000 small-cap index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, closed down 1.42%, and fell 3.99% this week.

The VIX index closed up 12.86% at 16.15, and once rose by more than 20% during the session. It has risen 8.10% this week.

- Stocks

Google A closed down 1.76%, down 3.29% last week.

Nvidia closed down 3.26%, down 3.83% last week.

Apple closed down 1.41%, down 0.86% this week. Jefferies quantified the impact of Trump's tariffs on Apple's iPhone. In the worst case scenario, all non-US parts of Apple's iPhone will be subject to a 60% tariff, up to $256 per phone. Tesla closed up 3.07%, down 0.16% last week.

- Treasury

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said there is no rush to cut interest rates, causing traders to slash their expectations for rate cuts. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by about 13bp this week, and the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rates, is approaching a four-month high.

- FX

The US dollar index rose 1.6% last week, once rising above 107 and rising for seven consecutive weeks. The strong dollar impacts everything

Dollar rises for seventh straight week, highest since November 2022

Asian Market

- FX

The yen rose 1.25% against the U.S. dollar at the end of the trading day to 154.32 yen, and fell 1.10% last week.

The offshore RMB rose 168 points against the U.S. dollar at the end of the trading day to 7.2370 yuan

European Market

- Markets

This week, affected by Trump's potential tariff policy, European stocks fell for the fourth consecutive week. The sectors that are more affected by imports and exports, such as basic resources, chemicals, industrial products and services, and food and beverages, fell the most. As winter approaches, Europe's demand for heating oil, natural gas and other energy is expected to rise sharply, causing the oil and gas sector to rise by more than 2.3%, leading the gains.

- Stocks

As Trump's candidate for health secretary emerged, Denmark's OMX Copenhagen 20 index closed down 3.52%, a cumulative decline of 3.52% this week.

The European healthcare sector closed down 2.9%, with Zealand down 10.11% and Novo Nordisk down 5.36%. Monkeypox vaccine concept stock Danish pharmaceutical company Nordic Bayern shares closed down 17.43% due to a decline in Q3 revenue

- Treasury

The market is worried that Trump's high tariff policy is unfavorable to the European economy. Traders increased their bets on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates in 2025. Eurozone sovereign bond yields generally fell this week. The two-year German bond yield fell by more than 6bp this week, and the 10-year Italian bond yield fell by more than 10bp.

- FX

The euro rose 0.10% against the U.S. dollar to 1.0540, down 1.67% last week and falling below 1.05 on November 14

the pound fell 0.37% against the U.S. dollar to 1.2619, down 2.33% last week.

Cryptocurrency Market

The leading Bitcoin futures with the largest market value rose 4.78% to $92,260.00 in late trading, and rose 19.26% last week. On November 14, it rose to $94,065.00. In the past seven natural days, spot Bitcoin has risen by about 19.28% to $91,287.38. On November 14, it rose to $93,462.17, a record high.

The second largest Ethereum futures fell 0.61% to $3,110.00 in late trading, and rose 4.86% this week. On November 12, it reached $3,483.50. Trump's allies proposed selling gold reserves to buy 1 million bitcoins.

Bitcoin hits new high this week and remains above $91,000

Macro

1. Economic data remains resilient, and Boston Fed President Collins as 2025 voter, said December rate cut is not a done deal, causing traders to cut their bets on the extent of the Fed's rate cuts in 2025, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December cut from 72.2% to less than 60%. Internationally, the UK's economic slowdown in the third quarter exceeded expectations, and Prime Minister Starmer faces challenges.
2. In terms of economic data, boosted by auto sales, US retail sales in October increased by 0.4%(MoM), higher than expected, and the previous value was revised sharply from 0.4% to 0.8%. However, inflation remains stubborn, and some retailers are already considering raising prices as they expect Trump to impose higher tariffs on imported goods. The New York Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States soared to 31.2 in November, a nearly three-year high and far exceeding expectations. US import prices unexpectedly rose 0.3% month-on-month in October, higher than the expected 0.1% decline, and rebounded from 0.4% decline in September. However, US industrial output fell in October, continuing to be dragged down by strikes and hurricanes.

Stocks to Focus

1. Disney rose 16% last week, the largest weekly gain in the past 24 years
2. Berkshire Hathaway built a position in Domino's Pizza in the third quarter and almost cleared out Utah Beauty. Domino's Pizza rose nearly 5.6% before closing down 1.27%, while Utah Beauty closed down 4.6%
3. Oklo, a nuclear power stock held by Sam Altman and Thiel, closed down 24.62%. The company's management introduced the details of the stock lock-up in a conference call with analysts, saying that the number of tradable shares reached approximately 137 million shares, and approximately 67 million shares at the end of the second quarter
4. General Motors closed down 1.01%. According to Bloomberg, the company plans to lay off approximately 1,000 employees to cut costs.