Nvidia Earnings Incoming: 5 Things to Watch!

 

Hey guys, Nvidia’s fiscal Q3 earnings report is dropping after the market closes on Wednesday, and there’s a lot to unpack. With Nvidia’s stock up 194% this year (yes, you read that right—almost 200%), expectations are sky-high. The stock has been on a tear recently, up almost 16% since the last report, while the broader semiconductor sector (looking at you, PHLX Semiconductor Index) has been struggling. So, what are we really looking for in this report? Let’s break it down.

 

 

1. The Stock Run – Nvidia has been absolutely crushing it. 194% growth in 2024 alone, and while many chip stocks have been dragging, Nvidia has held up strong. That’s setting a really high bar for this earnings call. So, all eyes will be on how they deliver this time.

 

2. The Whisper Numbers – The official revenue estimate for Q3 is $33.1 billion, with Q4 projected at $37.0 billion. But the whispers in the market are much higher. Some investors are eyeing $39-$40 billion for Q4, which would certainly fuel the bull case. If Nvidia hits or beats those numbers, expect the stock to keep climbing. But remember, last time their guidance disappointed and caused a drop, so guidance is crucial this quarter.

 

3. Margins Matter – Nvidia’s margins have been stellar, but there’s been a slight dip as they ramp up production for their new Blackwell chip. Analysts are expecting adjusted gross margins to come in at 75% for Q3, but down to 73% for Q4. Those would compare with 75.7% and 78.9% for the July and April quarters, respectively. Not a huge drop, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

 

4. Blackwell Hype – The big news is Blackwell, Nvidia’s new chip. If Blackwell really lives up to the hype, it could be a game-changer. But here’s the catch—there are some concerns over production issues. Reports of potential overheating with Nvidia’s new GB200 systems have raised eyebrows. However, Nvidia is downplaying these concerns, saying engineering issues are normal during a product ramp. Either way, this will be a huge focus during the earnings call.

 

5. Earnings Growth – Expect solid earnings growth—around 86% year-over-year for Q3, but it’s going to be slower than previous quarters—152% growth in the July quarter and 462% in April. The AI-driven GPU boom won’t last forever, and Nvidia is now facing tougher comps. So, while growth is still great, it’s not going to be as mind-blowing as earlier this year.

 

In short, Nvidia’s got a lot of expectations on its shoulders. It’s been a wild ride for the stock, and the Q3 report will either validate that momentum or cool things off a bit.

 

What’s your take on Nvidia? Are you still bullish, or are you worried about Blackwell ramping up? #nvidia