ADDX Go Market Morning Wrap - 21th Nov

Market Key Focus

US Market

- Markets

In the early trading of U.S. stocks, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine raised risk aversion sentiment and suppressed the stock market. The Nasdaq fell nearly 1.4% in early trading, the S&P 500 fell nearly 1%, the Dow fell more than 194 points, or 0.4%, and the chip stock index fell more than 2.1%.

At the end of the trading, some investors were afraid of missing out on the positive earnings of Nvidia's financial report. U.S. stocks rebounded V-shaped and closed near the intraday high.

- Stocks

Healthcare, energy and raw materials sectors performed well, while the non-essential consumer sector led the decline, dragged down by Target's 21.41% drop. Investors sold technology stocks, chip stocks and AI concept stocks.

Large-cap tech stocks took a beating at the open, erasing all of yesterday’s gains, before “FOMO” buyers took advantage and piled in

- Treasury

The escalation of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered buying of U.S. Treasuries at the beginning of the session, and U.S. Treasury yields fell to the intraday low at one point. However, the results of the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction were unexpected. In addition, the remarks of Federal Reserve officials poured cold water on expectations of a rate cut. For example, Board Member Bowman said that "the inflation rate has stagnated after returning to the 2% target," which all pushed up U.S. Treasury yields. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield eventually rose by about 2.8bp.

- FX

The US dollar index rose by more than 0.4% and ended its three-day losing streak

Asian Market

- Markets

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 1.44%. Among ETFs, the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed up 1.73%, the FTSE China 3x Long ETF (YINN) closed up 1.06%, and the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed up 1.06%. The FTSE A50 Index Futures closed down 0.14% overnight at 13,409.000 points.

- FX

The yen fell back after rising: the yen fell 0.50% against the US dollar in late trading to 155.44 yen.

The offshore RMB fell more than 200 points and fell below 7.25 yuan

European Market

- Markets

Pan-European STOXX 600 falls for four days as investors assess tensions with Russia.

Societe Generale sees modest gains for European stocks in 2025

- Stocks

British software company Sage Group rose 18% as full-year operating profit grew 21%, better than expected

- Treasury

The year-on-year increase in UK CPI exceeded expectations, and the 10-year UK bond yield rose by more than 2bp

- FX

Inflation data once pushed up the pound, and the euro fell as much as 0.8% to 1.05, approaching a one-year low again.

Traders are wary of the parity risk of the euro against the dollar.

Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin futures, the largest leader in market value, approached $95,000 to hit a record high.

The Trump team is considering setting up a cryptocurrency position in the White House for the first time. They have held several consultations with executives in the digital currency industry this week.

Bitcoin accelerates to new highs again, just a few dollars away from $95,000

Macro

1. Hawkish Fed Governor Bowman said that inflation progress seems to be stagnant and tends to move forward with rate cuts cautiously. Fed Governor Cook believes that if the job market continues to weaken, it may require a faster rate cut. The job market is still solid and is expected to cool only gradually. Fed Governor and Vice Chairman for Financial Supervision Barr said that he will not leave because of Trump and does not plan to make major policies before Trump takes office. Traders cut their bets on rate cuts, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has dropped from 58.9% to 52.3%

1. The ECB warned in its financial stability assessment that trade frictions have heightened risks to the euro area economy and could increase the fragility of the financial system. The focus of macroeconomic risks has shifted from high inflation to weaker-than-expected growth, with geopolitical uncertainty and global trade tensions raising the possibility of tail risks. Against the backdrop of rising uncertainty and high asset valuations, risk sentiment could suddenly reverse sharply given high asset valuations and concentrated risk exposures in the financial system.

Stocks to Focus

1. Ford closed down 2.9% and plans to lay off 4,000 employees in Europe by the end of 2027
2. Oklo, a nuclear power company held by Sam Altman, fell more than 10% and closed down 3.9%. Kerrisdale said it shorted the company's stock.
3. E.L.F. Beauty, Inc. (ELF), a beauty company, fell more than 15% and closed down 2.23%. Short seller Muddy Waters disclosed short information.

Tracking Gold

Although the rebound of the US dollar has partially limited the rise in gold prices, due to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, safe-haven demand has pushed gold prices up for three consecutive days and hit a one-week high. New York gold futures rose 0.8% on Wednesday and returned to above $2,650.

Safe-haven demand drives spot gold up for three consecutive days and hits a one-week high

Tracking Oil

Although tensions between major oil producers Russia and Ukraine helped push oil prices higher, oil prices eventually took a sharp turn and closed at a daily low as the U.S. EIA crude oil and gasoline inventories increased more than expected last week.

After the release of EIA crude oil inventory data, oil prices fell, with US oil hovering around $69