ADDX Go Market Morning Wrap - 28th Nov

Market Key Focus

US Market

- Markets

Wednesday was the last full trading day of November, just before the Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. stocks fell across the board. Affected by the poor financial reports of a series of technology and software companies such as Dell, HP, and CrowdStrike, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 fell by nearly 1%, leading the decline. After the release of PCE inflation data, the Nasdaq 100 fell by nearly 1.5%. Small-cap stocks initially performed well, but then wiped out almost all of their gains.

- Stocks

JPMorgan Chase changed its bearish stance on the S&P 500 index for two consecutive years and expects the index to rise 8% in 2025 (up from Tuesday's closing point of 6021.63 points), with a target of 6500 points, 55% higher than the 4200 points predicted in the past two years.

At the same time, JPMorgan Chase expects the polarization of U.S. stocks to continue until the first half of 2025 as investors will need to digest the trade uncertainty that may heat up. Driven by the boom in technology stocks and AI, the U.S. stock market will continue to lead the rest of the world in 2025 unless geopolitical and trade policy risks are eased.

- Treasury

Driven by the strong US economic data and the 7-year Treasury auction before Thanksgiving, the yields of medium- and long-term US Treasury bonds fell across the board, and the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by more than 5bp to a three-week low. After the US PCE was announced in the early trading of US stocks, the yield rebounded in the short term

- Fx

The dollar fell about 0.9% to a two-week low and is about 2% below its two-year high on Friday

Dollar falls again, testing recent lows but still well above election result

Asian Market

- Markets

Asian markets delivered a mixed performance as U.S. stocks hit record highs despite Donald Trump’s latest tariff-related comments, which caused only minor ripples on Wall Street.

Japan’s Nikkei index dropped nearly 0.8% to 38,134.97, weighed down by a strengthening yen, which rose against the U.S. dollar.

Chinese markets showed strength, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rising 2.32% to 19,603.13 and the Shanghai Composite adding 1.53% to 3,309.78, despite a reported 10% drop in industrial profits.

- Stocks

In South Korea, the Kospi slid 0.6% to 2,505.49, led by a 3.3% decline in Samsung Electronics after the company announced a leadership shakeup. Samsung appointed Young Hyun Jun, vice chairman and head of the Device Solutions division, as its new chief executive, aiming to bolster its competitiveness in the semiconductor market.

Baidu closed up 1.57%. JPMorgan Chase downgraded Baidu Group's ADR rating from "overweight" to "neutral" with a target price of $87.

- FX

Benefiting from bets on Japan's December rate hike and position adjustments, the yen rose to the 150 mark to its highest level in five weeks.

The offshore renminbi (CNH) rose 129 points against the US dollar to 7.2449 yuan in late trading.

European Market

- Markets

European stocks closed lower for a second day as investors continued to assess the potential impact of Trump's tariff plan and accelerating U.S. inflation on the Fed's slowdown in rate cuts.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.19% at 504.96 points. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed down 0.61%. The FTSE Euro STOXX 300 index closed down 0.61%

- Stocks

All sectors fell except for telecommunications, food and beverage, utilities and financial services.

- Treasury

European sovereign bond yields generally fall as investors focus on French budget.

The yield on the euro zone's benchmark German 10-year government bond fell 2.7bp to 2.160%. The yield on the two-year German government bond rose 1.6bp to 2.035%. The yield on the UK's 10-year government bond fell 5.8bp. The yield on the two-year British government bond fell 2.7bp.

- FX

The euro rose to its highest in a week on comments from European Central Bank officials.

The euro rose 0.74% against the dollar to 1.0567, and the pound rose 0.88% against the dollar to 1.2680.

HSBC expects the euro to fall below parity against the dollar by the end of 2025, and rising unemployment could hinder the recovery of consumption in the eurozone.

Cryptocurrency Market

1. Bitcoin futures rebounded to above $97,000, and cryptocurrency stocks generally rose. Hut 8 closed up 16.5%, Cipher Mining closed up 14.56%, and TeraWulf closed up 10.96%. Canaan Technology closed up 1.11%, the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase closed up 6.03%, and MicroStrategy, which was targeted by short sellers Citron, closed up 9.94%
2. The spot price of Bitcoin rose above $97,000 in the late trading of the U.S. stock market, up more than $6,000 and more than 7% from the intraday low.
3. Ethereum rose 9.68% in the late trading to $3,652.00

Macro

1. On the eve of the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday sales season, US economic data was mixed. Thanks to cooling inflation and consumer spending hitting the highest level of the year, Q3 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter was unrevised at 2.8%, but Q3 core PCE inflation was revised down to 2.1%, slightly lower than expected. The job market cooled, and the number of first-time claims in the United States remained low last week, but the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits hit the highest level since November 2021
2. Isabel Schnabel, a senior official of the European Central Bank, warned that the central bank should gradually implement loose monetary policy, and excessive easing may waste "precious policy space". Subsequently, the market reduced the expectations of the European Central Bank to cut interest rates before the end of the year, and the German two-year bond gave up its gains. The euro rose by 0.5% to a one-week high.

Stocks to Focus

1. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) closed down 11.36% after the company released its earnings report, with earnings guidance below expectations
2. Automation technology company Symbotic (SYM) closed down 35.86% after the company lowered its earnings guidance due to financial accounting errors
3. Photovoltaic stock SolarEdge (SEDG) closed up 8.55%. The company laid off approximately 12% of its employees after setting aside $1 billion in losses
4. Applied Therapeutics (APLT) closed down 16.06%, and once fell more than 84% after the market closed. Previously, the company received a "completion response letter" from the FDA, stating that the new drug application (NDA) for Govorestat lacked a clinical description and could not be approved in the current format.

Tracking Gold

The unexpected rise in U.S. inflation lowered expectations for rate cuts, causing gold and U.S. stocks to narrow their earlier gains in early trading, but the dollar fell to a two-week low, gaining support. Gold futures and spot gold closed higher on Wednesday, bidding farewell to a low of more than a week.

Tracking Oil

The market assessed the ceasefire in Lebanon and Israel, the lower-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories, and the OPEC+ meeting this Sunday, which may postpone the organization's production increase plan. U.S. oil closed slightly lower on Wednesday, while Brent crude was roughly flat.

Crude oil prices fell for a third day as a smaller-than-expected inventory build and a Lebanon ceasefire held for now