Non-Farm Payrolls Data Strikes Tonight! Will There Be Another Interest Rate Cut in December?

 

 

 

In November 2024, the median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment stands at 207,500. Should the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls reach 207,500, it would signify a significant rise compared to the previous month and surpass the trailing 12-month average of 181,100.

 

 

For October 2024, total nonfarm payroll employment saw a 12,000 increase, deviating from the median estimate of 112,500. Over the past year, the total nonfarm employment figure has exceeded the median estimate in 7 months and fallen short in 5 months, with an average excess of 2.3% compared to the estimate. Over the last 5 years (60 months), the total nonfarm payroll employment has surpassed the median estimate 65% of the time and fallen short 35% of the time, exceeding the estimate by an average of 2.2%. Notably, historical figures in this analysis reflect revised numbers, not the original ones released on the report day.

 

 

 

The median estimate of 207,500 is derived from 18 estimates gathered by FactSet, ranging from 160,000 to 240,000, with a spread of 80,000. This spread is narrower than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimates, which was 85,500.

 

 

 

If the actual unemployment rate hits 4.1%, it will align with the figures from the previous two months but exceed the trailing 12-month average of 4.0%.

 

 

In October 2024, the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, in line with the median estimate of 4.1%. Over the last 12 months, the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate in 5 months, matched it in 2 months, and fallen short in 5 months. Looking back over the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate surpassed the median estimate 28% of the time, matched it 13% of the time, and fell short 58% of the time.

 

 

The median estimate of 4.1% is based on 18 estimates compiled by FactSet, ranging from 4.0% to 4.2%, with a spread of 20 basis points (bps). This spread mirrors the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimates.

 

 

Today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the total nonfarm payroll employment number and the unemployment rate for November.