US Payrolls Expected to Surge in November as Boeing Resumes Production and Hurricanes Ends

November's nonfarm payroll data is due later today, December 6. Regarding this data, economists expect nonfarm payrolls to increase around 200,000 jobs following 12,000 job growth in October that marks the smallest gain since December 2020. October's minor job growth was attributed to hurricane disruption, Boeing's strike, and the shorter survey period. Job growth over the past three months is expected to average around 145,000, indicating a healthy yet slowing labor market.

 

Analysts expected the job data to surge in November. Returning Boeing workers and those from other aerospace firms are expected to add around 38,000 jobs to November's payrolls, predicting a growth of 60,000-65,000 jobs. However, they warned that the job rally did not mean the labor market easing which enabled the Fed to reduce the rate this month.

 

In November, the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%, driven by increasing labor supply after the disruption. Wage growth is projected to slow down, with a 0.3% rise in average hourly wages, lowering the annual wage growth from 4.0% to 3.9%.

 

The Federal Reserve remains cautious, with a near 70% chance of a 25% cut in the December 17-18 meeting. Although the labor market is healthy with a cooling growth, the instability in the labor market triggered by President-elect Trump's favor of increased tariffs and the inflation exceeding the 2% target made economists believe that the Fed might cut the rate at each of its meetings in 2025, for a total of 1% of easing.