Highlights for the Global Market Next Week: The European Central Bank Kicks off the Year-End Interest Rate Deliberation Curtain, and Multiple Highlights in AI Applications Will Unfold

As the countdown to the last four weeks of 2024 begins, we will witness a series of important data releases and meetings next week, which will also set the tone for the final performance of global markets this year.

Firstly, global central banks will enter the interest rate deliberation cycle again.

The European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce their interest rate decisions next week, and market expectations for each vary significantly.

There is a high probability that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points. However, considering that both Germany and France, the two largest economies in the euro area, are mired in political turmoil, it may be difficult for Christine Lagarde's policies alone to restore market confidence in the euro.

The Bank of Canada has the greatest uncertainty. The swap market estimates that the probabilities of it cutting interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points next week are close. And the Reserve Bank of Australia will basically maintain the current policy interest rate unchanged.

(There is a possibility that Canada may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in two consecutive meetings)

By the way, next week's economic data will also have an impact on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which will announce their decisions the week after.

Among them, the US CPI for November, which is expected to rebound further on Tuesday next week, has a high threshold for influencing the December interest rate cut decision.

However, if inflation remains high, it will still have a negative impact on the interest rate cut outlook for 2025. Since Saturday this week, the Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period, so there will only be revelations from sources like the "Fed's mouthpiece" in the next two weeks.

Japan's economic data will show the outlook for the country's interest rate hikes. As Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has publicly stated that "the time for the next interest rate hike is approaching," the market is seeking greater certainty about Japan's policy direction.

Next week is not the peak season for financial reports, but companies closely related to the AI industry's software and hardware, such as Oracle, Broadcom, and C3.ai, will release their financial reports, which may have an impact on the speculation of related themes and concepts. Additionally, Adobe, which has faced setbacks in the AI field on multiple occasions, needs to vindicate itself.

Moreover, OpenAI will continue to hold live events for five consecutive days. Popular new products such as Sora and GPT-4.5o are expected to boost market sentiment. Meanwhile, Apple's iOS 18.2 system may also be pushed out next week. In this version, Siri will be officially connected to ChatGPT, which is also a relatively important version update for "Apple Intelligence."

Considering the important contribution of the AI and technology industries to the rise of the US stock market, the state of these "AI concept stocks" is very important for whether the S&P 500 Index can make a final push to achieve a 30% annual increase by the end of the year (it has currently risen by 27.68%).

The Syrian issue has heated up rapidly in the past two weeks and is now approaching an important juncture. According to the latest news, Syrian opposition forces and extremist groups have already advanced into the central city of Homs, which is also the last important defensive line before the capital Damascus. It is expected that in the next few days or even hours, the defenders in Damascus will face increasing pressure.

Meanwhile, the political arenas in France and South Korea are also under the pressure of uncertainty. In France, a new prime minister needs to be appointed as soon as possible, and the 2025 budget needs to be finalized quickly. In South Korea, there is already a tug-of-war where the president is facing impeachment attempts almost every week, and it is still unclear how to break the deadlock.

Overview of Important Financial and Economic Events Next Week

Monday: China's November CPI, Japan's October trade balance, the Eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index

Tuesday: China's November export data (to be confirmed), the US November New York Fed Inflation Expectations, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision

Wednesday: the US November CPI, the Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision, OPEC announces its monthly crude oil market report

Thursday : the US Treasury auction data for 10-year bonds, the European Central Bank announces its interest rate decision & Christine Lagarde's press conference, the Swiss National Bank announces its interest rate decision, the IEA announces its monthly crude oil market report, the US November PPI

Friday: the Federal Reserve announces the flow of funds in its accounts for the third quarter of 2024