14-Fold Surge in Two Months: Is Quantum Computing Set to Dominate the Next Decade?

The speculation on U.S. quantum technology stocks can now be described as "crazy".

 

On October 22nd, the share price of QUBT was $1.13. However, two months later, on December 22nd, the share price of QUBT reached $17.62. The share price skyrocketed 14 times in just two months, and this is far from its highest increase range yet.

 

So, what exactly has caused the price of this stock to soar?

 

 

In fact, the share price of QUBT had been consolidating between $0 and $2 for two years. It seemed that there was little hope, but starting from the release of the financial report for the third quarter of this year, investors' enthusiasm was instantly ignited, and this was precisely due to the extremely high expectations for quantum computing.

 

According to the financial report, in the third quarter of this year, Quantum Computing generated revenue of $101,000. Although this figure may seem insignificant, it has doubled compared to the $50,000 in the same period last year.

 

Moreover, it is expected that the company's revenue will increase by at least 200% in the fiscal year 2025. Besides its cooperation with Johns Hopkins University, in the third quarter, it also won its fifth contract with NASA.

 

The content of the contract is to use its entropy quantum optimizer Dirac-3 to support NASA's advanced imaging and data processing needs, especially to solve the phase unwrapping problem, improve data quality and accuracy, and significantly reduce the cost of spaceborne lidar.

 

In addition, the company is also stepping up the construction of hardware platforms related to quantum computing.

 

Although these cooperations show considerable growth, the amounts are not high and can hardly support the market value growth that is often several times or even ten times.

 

Investors who are bullish on the quantum computing concept in U.S. stocks also have a grand dream: among these companies, there may be another "quantum version of NVIDIA" in the making.

 

 

Some people call it a delusional daydream, while others call it an epoch-making innovation. Whether it's a story bubble or a new giant of the era, that's where the differences lie.

After all, two years ago in November 2022, who could have imagined that the birth of ChatGPT was recognized as the "OpenAI moment" of artificial intelligence.

 

And now in December 2024, with the release of Google's new quantum chip, does it mean that this is the "Willow moment" that heralds the arrival of the quantum computing era in 5 to 10 years?

 

 

Google recently announced that its latest quantum computing chip, Willow, can "reduce the error rate exponentially" and has solved the quantum error correction problem that has plagued the scientific research field for more than 30 years.

Moreover, Willow can complete an extremely complex calculation within 5 minutes, while the current fastest supercomputer would need 10²⁵ years to complete this calculation, which is far longer than the age of the universe.

 

In 2023, the global quantum computing industry scale was $47 billion. According to iCV TA&K's estimate, by 2035, the global quantum computing industry scale will exceed $800 billion.

 

And the entire quantum computing market is also taking off. According to The Quantum Insider's latest analysis, between 2025 and 2035, the global quantum computing market may bring a total income of more than $1 trillion to the global economy.

 

It is expected that suppliers will earn $500 billion in revenue during this period. By 2035, it is expected that quantum computing will create approximately 840,000 new jobs.

 

This prediction shows that quantum computing has unleashed huge economic potential and reflects the growing confidence in quantum technology as it is getting closer and closer to mainstream applications.

 

So it's not hard to explain why investors are flocking to the quantum computing field.

 

 

The quantum computing field undoubtedly has huge potential, and even cryptocurrencies may be disrupted.

 

If the astronomical computing power of quantum computers is applied to the general computing field, all the previous computing power measurement standards will become invalid.

 

 

As early as 2019, after Google proved "quantum supremacy", some researchers estimated that a chip with 13 million qubits could crack the private key encryption of a Bitcoin wallet in just one day.

 

As of now, the viability of investing in quantum computing remains questionable.

 

The practical application of quantum computing is a distant prospect. The inherent instability of qubits not only introduces errors but also complicates the replication and manipulation of qubit states with current technology. Consequently, quantum computers struggle to handle large datasets efficiently and lack robust algorithms.

 

Furthermore, there are ongoing debates regarding the adaptability of academic testing methodologies for quantum computing to broader industry applications in the future, despite the vast potential for innovation.

 

Although quantum computing stocks have surged significantly in the short term, the actual implementation of quantum computing is still far from realization. For those considering investments, it might be wise to wait for the current hype to subside before cautiously entering the market with stocks like QUBT, RGTI, IONQ, and ARQQ. Short-term investors need not be overly concerned; the quantum computing sector is currently experiencing a boom, providing ample speculative opportunities.