ADDX Go Market Morning Wrap - 24th Dec

 

Market Key Focus

US Market

- Markets

The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell at the beginning of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 323 points, the S&P fell by nearly 0.5%, and the Nasdaq fell by more than 0.3%. Later, due to the continued strength of technology stocks and chip stocks, the U.S. stock market turned positive and closed near the daily high. The Nasdaq rose by nearly 1%, leading the gains. The chip index closed up 3.1%, and Navitas Semiconductor rose by about 22%. Historically, December is the second best month for the stock market, and most of the gains usually occur in the second half of the month. Some investors hope that the "Santa Claus rebound" will help the market reach a high point by the end of 2024

 

Expectations for a Fed rate cut next year continue to decline

 

- Stocks

$NVDA closed up 3.69%. Bank of America listed Nvidia and other chip stocks as top investment options in 2025. Morgan Stanley named Nvidia as its "top pick" in 2025 because its Blackwell chip series will become a strong "tailwind" with a target price of $166, up about 23% from the current level

$TSLA closed up 2.27%. Tesla recalled nearly 700,000 vehicles in the United States due to a tire pressure warning light problem. The problem could cause users to drive with low-pressure tires without knowing it. From November 5 to last Friday, the automaker's stock price has soared by about 67%. Analysts believe that the stock price may fall by more than 43% by 2025.

$AAPL closed up 0.31% to a record high. It was reported that Apple is developing a new smart doorbell that will support Face ID.

The rebalancing of the Nasdaq 100 index has led to a decrease in the weights of $TSLA , meta, and $AVGO , to 3.9%, 3.3%, and 4.4%, respectively. At the same time, the weights of Apple, Nvidia, $MSFT and Google's parent company $GOOGL increased, with $AAPL increasing to 9.8% and $NVDA increasing to 8.4%.

 

- Treasury

Wall Street predicts, based on the Fed's guidance, that the Fed is on track to cut interest rates in 2025, even if Trump's trade and tax policies bring risks. The median forecast of 12 strategists predicts that the 2-year Treasury yield will fall to 3.75% in a year, and the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to fall from the current level to 4.25% by the end of 2025. Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have the most optimistic and pessimistic views on the bond market, respectively. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates faster than other banks, and expects the 10-year yield to fall to 3.55% in December next year. Deutsche Bank predicts that the Fed will not cut interest rates in 2025, and the 10-year yield is expected to rise to 4.65%.

 

- FX

The dollar index rose 0.4% and held steady after hitting a two-year high last Friday

 

The dollar index rebounded from Friday's losses

 

Asian Market

- Markets

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.91%. Among ETFs, the FTSE China 3x Long ETF ($YINN) closed up 2.85%, the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed up 0.23%, and the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed down 1.27%. The FTSE A50 Index Futures closed up 0.15% overnight at 13,439.000 points.

 

- Stocks

$HMC Honda Motor jumped before the market opened, rising by more than 13% at one point, but now the increase has narrowed to 11%. Honda and Nissan have officially announced the launch of merger negotiations, and the holding company is expected to be officially established and listed in August 2026.

 

- FX

The Japanese yen fell below 157, and the offshore RMB fell by more than 200 points to 7.31 yuan

 

European Market

- Markets

The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.14% at 502.91 points, while the Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed down 0.19% and the pan-European FTSE 300 index closed up 0.14%.

 

- Treasury

The euro zone's benchmark German 10-year bond yield rose 3.8 basis points to 2.323%. The two-year German bond yield rose 3.0bp. The UK 10-year bond yield rose 3.9bp, and the two-year gilt yield fell 0.3bp.

 

- FX

The euro fell 0.21% against the dollar to 1.0406, and the pound fell 0.27% against the dollar to 1.2536

 

Cryptocurrency Market

1. $BTC fell below $93,000 during the session, and cryptocurrency stocks fell across the board. $BTDR Bitdeer Technologies closed up 0.15%, $RIOT Riot Platforms closed down 6.49%, and $CAN Canaan Technology closed down 11.21%. Cryptocurrency exchange $COIN closed down 3.79%, $BTCTW closed down 9.42%, and $MSTR MSTR closed down 8.78% on its first day of inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index, purchasing 5,262 bitcoins for approximately $561 million.

 

Macro

1. New home sales in the United States rebounded in November, and house prices fell 6.3% year-on-year to $402,600, a new low since the beginning of 2022. The Federal Reserve FOMC voting committee has a new lineup in the new year, and the policy stance is expected to be more polarized between dovish and hawkish. Musk commented on the X platform that the number of employees at the Federal Reserve is too large and ridiculous. After digesting the Federal Reserve's signals, Goldman Sachs economists believe that a rate cut is unlikely in January next year.
2. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the ECB is very close to the 2% inflation target, but still needs to be vigilant about service inflation, as the price increase in the service industry is almost twice the ECB's target. After the Labour Party came to power, the British economy stagnated. The initial GDP growth in the third quarter was 0.1%, and the revised final value increased by 0% month-on-month. The pound fell. Economists lowered the eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 1.2% to 1%, and the growth forecast for 2026 from 1.4% to 1.2%. Germany and France were both lowered, while Spain rose slightly.

 

Earnings For Today

 

 

Market Events

 

 

Stocks to Focus

1. Argentine online travel company $DESP closed up 32.83%. Global investment company Prosus will acquire the company for US$1.7 billion
2. $HMC Honda Motor's US stocks rose more than 15% and closed up 12.72%. Nissan Honda officially launched merger negotiations and plans to complete them in 2026. The merger will make it the third largest company in the world. France's Renault, which holds a minority stake in Nissan, closed up 1%
3. $LLY Eli Lilly closed up 3.71%. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Eli Lilly's weight loss drug Zepbound for the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. This is the first prescription drug approved for the treatment of common sleep disorders. Rival Novo Nordisk fell more than 20% last Friday and closed up 4.36% on Monday
4. $TXN Texas Instruments closed up 1.75%. Samsung and Texas Instruments completed a final agreement and will receive billions of dollars in government support for the construction of a new semiconductor factory in the United States. Samsung will receive up to US$4.75 billion in funds and Texas Instruments will receive US$1.6 billion
5. $RUMBW umble rose more than 100% and closed up 81.22%. The company had previously received investment from Tether. (6) The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) sued Walmart for forcing delivery drivers to use "expensive deposit accounts" to receive wages. The stock price fell more than 3.5% and closed down 2.05%.