Navigating Bitcoin's Future: MicroStrategy's NASDAQ Debut and the Quantum Computing Conundrum

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating. It dropped from a high of $108,383 on December 17th to a recent low of $92,357, with a difference of $16,000. Such a fluctuation is by no means small.

Coupled with the recent popularity of quantum computing technology, many investors are worried that there may be a crisis in the cryptocurrency market. This is actually crucial because quantum computing has the potential to disrupt the cryptocurrency industry.

 

Today, let's have a detailed discussion about the recent trend of Bitcoin and how to profit from its price fluctuations.

 

 

In the long run, the upward trend of Bitcoin is facing a risk that has recently become a hot "theme" in the stock market but may not have caught the attention of most cryptocurrency investors: quantum computing.

 

In fact, I mentioned this issue when introducing quantum computing earlier.

 

For the cryptocurrency market, such as Bitcoin, if quantum computing technology is used for hacking, thieves may easily steal Bitcoin from supposedly secure digital wallets, thus causing the price of Bitcoin to plummet.

 

Relevant researchers say that a quantum computing device powerful enough to crack Bitcoin may still be a decade or more away from actually coming into existence.

 

 

Many cryptocurrency executives have previously stated that in the future, Bitcoin can ensure its security by adopting new types of encryption that are not easily cracked by quantum computers. But such a complete overhaul may take several years.

 

Moreover, due to the decentralized nature of Bitcoin, changing its technology requires a wide consensus among people around the world who maintain its network.

 

Even if the cryptocurrency community finally reaches an agreement on how to protect Bitcoin against quantum hacking, there is another obstacle: existing Bitcoins need to be transferred to addresses that can resist quantum computing.

 

 

 

Of course, there is another piece of news about Bitcoin recently. MicroStrategy, a major holder of Bitcoin, has been officially included in the NASDAQ 100 Index.

On December 24th, MicroStrategy was officially included in the NASDAQ 100 Index. Currently, MicroStrategy is one of the institutions with the largest Bitcoin holdings globally.

 

MicroStrategy announced that as of December 15th, 2024, the company had newly purchased 15,400 Bitcoins, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to approximately 439,000. The funds for this new Bitcoin purchase were approximately $1.5 billion. Including fees and expenses, the average cost per Bitcoin was approximately $100,000.

 

The funds for MicroStrategy's acquisition came from the sale of Class A common stock. According to the sales agreements signed between the company and several financial institutions, from December 9th to December 15th, the company sold approximately 3.88 million shares, amounting to approximately $1.54 billion. According to the agreement, MicroStrategy can still sell approximately $7.65 billion worth of stocks in the future.

 

Currently, the company's total investment in Bitcoin has reached approximately $27.1 billion, with an average purchase price of $61,700 per coin. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at $97,000 per coin, meaning that the value of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings has reached $42.583 billion.

 

At the same time, after MicroStrategy is included in the NASDAQ 100 Index, it will trigger passive portfolio adjustments by index funds.

 

 

 

In fact, if we look at a longer time frame, it is obvious that Bitcoin has been on an upward trend since January 2023. As shown in the figure below.

It is no exaggeration to say that during the period from January 2023 to October 2024, if you bought Bitcoin at any time, ignored the intermediate fluctuations, and held it until November 2024, you would not lose money in terms of overall returns.

 

However, the actual situation is that over the past two years or more, we have always seen people giving various reasons for whether to buy or sell. Eventually, after all the fuss, some people not only failed to make money but even lost some of their principal.

 

Another interesting piece of data to share is that in the past ten - odd years, Bitcoin has been declared dead 477 times.

As I said in previous articles, my view has changed from initially doubting Bitcoin to gradually believing in it.

 

In fact, since the US government approved Bitcoin ETFs this year, from a risk perspective, the risk of Bitcoin has relatively decreased.

 

After all, with the US government providing a certain level of guarantee, you can no longer simply claim that it is a pure scam.

 

Or, to put it in a simpler way, have you ever seen a scam that can last for 15 years (the Bitcoin white paper was published on October 31st, 2008, and then on January 3rd, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto mined the first block of Bitcoin)?

 

 

Throughout its history, the cryptocurrency market has weathered notable corrections, essential for mitigating speculative risks and paving the way for future growth.

 

 

Regarding quantum computing, let's table that discussion for now. It's a factor best left for another time as we focus on the current market dynamics.#btc