Tesla Set to Reveal Q4 Delivery Volume: Will Stock Price Surge Further?

On January 2nd, Tesla will release the delivery data for the fourth quarter of 2024.

 

This is a performance report that the market will pay close attention to in the short term, and some analysts have already given their expectations.

 

For example, Edison Yu and Winnie Dong, analysts from Deutsche Bank, said that the fourth quarter "is Tesla's largest delivery quarter", but "so far, I think the delivery volume is slightly lower" than the expected 515,000 units for annual growth.

 

Whether Tesla can reach this target in the fourth quarter and achieve annual growth remains in question.

 

For instance, UBS released a report on Monday, expecting that Tesla will announce the delivery volume for the fourth quarter of 2024 on January 2nd, with the quantity being approximately 510,000 units, a 5% year - on - year increase and a 10% quarter - on - quarter increase.

Other analysts generally expect Tesla to deliver around 511,000 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter. However, according to this expectation, Tesla's delivery volume this year will be slightly lower than that of last year.

 

But I think the delivery figure this time should be just over 510,000 units, perhaps even a little lower.

 

Looking back at the first three quarters of this year, Tesla's electric vehicle delivery volumes were 386,810 units, 443,956 units, and 462,890 units respectively, demonstrating a stable market performance.

 

 

At the same time, in order to match last year's total delivery volume of 1,808,581 units, they need to deliver 514,925 units in this quarter.

 

Now it seems quite difficult.

 

In fact, the North American market in the fourth quarter is still weak, while the European market has improved slightly but with little impact.

 

Compared with Q3, the biggest improvement in this quarter can only come from the Chinese market. The weekly delivery volume has been around 20,000 units for several consecutive weeks recently.

 

The price - reduction campaign was launched too late, otherwise it might have been even higher.

 

Here, we also share the view of UBS analysts, that is: "Given the AI - driven narrative surrounding this stock, we think the delivery results will not be as significant as they used to be."

 

They believe that Tesla should now be observed more from the perspective of AI, and the data of new energy vehicle delivery volume alone is not as important as it used to be.

 

I also agree with this point.

 

Tesla is now advancing multiple businesses simultaneously, such as AI, energy storage, and robots, all of which are promising fields.

 

Therefore, after the release of this delivery report, I think the earnings conference call at the end of January is more important.

 

 

 

If it is lower than 500,000 units, the stock price may decline. But even if it has a short - term impact on the stock price, long - term investors don't need to worry. A little delivery volume can't stop the pace of Tesla's progress.

 

Investors with a low position who have been looking for opportunities to buy may find that if there is a pullback in Tesla's stock price due to the delivery data, it could be a good entry opportunity.

Tesla has always been one of my long - term holding stocks. To be honest, the increase in its stock price since the US presidential election has exceeded my expectations.

 

Even so, I still haven't reduced any of my positions.Well, let's wait and see in two days.$TSLA #tesla