Bitcoin Hits $100K Again: Can the Bull Market Continue?

 

Bitcoin’s back in the game—hitting that $100k mark again! But the big question is: Can the bull market actually keep going this year?

 

On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped some inflation data that surprised the markets. The core CPI slowed more than expected, which has reignited hopes for more rate cuts from the Fed. And with that, both US stocks and crypto caught fire, with Bitcoin seeing its biggest single-day gain of the year.

 

On Thursday, Bitcoin’s rally pulled up a bunch of crypto stocks too, like Hut 8 ($HUT), TeraWulf ($WULF), and Riot Platforms ($RIOT)—all rising by around 10%. Coinbase ($COIN) gained more than 7%, while big holders like MicroStrategy ($MSTR) saw a solid 5% uptick.

 

 

Bitcoin’s rise isn’t just tied to inflation data but also to a broader sense of optimism. Bitcoin’s now showing a strong correlation with tech stocks—its 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 is sitting at a two-year high (0.7). Basically, Bitcoin is dancing to the same tune as tech stocks, thanks to that inflation data.

 

And then, there’s Trump. He’s about to take office, and he’s making a lot of noise about crypto. A lot of folks are betting that he’ll be more crypto-friendly, with some even predicting a bullish run for Bitcoin if his policies start rolling out. He’s already hinted at turning the US into the “global crypto capital,” and even wants to create a Bitcoin reserve.

 

 

Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, has said 2025 could be the “Year of Crypto ETFs.” He predicts that under the new administration, the SEC will approve over 50 crypto ETFs. With crypto ETFs in the mix, some analysts are looking at $150k as the next big target for Bitcoin. Others, like Muneeb Ali, are even eyeing $200k by the end of 2025.

 

Of course, there are mixed opinions here. Some argue that Bitcoin’s already surged significantly after Trump’s win and that we might see a round of profit-taking once he officially takes office. But then again, this is crypto, and anything can happen, right?

 

We all hear about Bitcoin’s cycle. History has shown that Bitcoin tends to follow a four-year cycle, where it goes through phases of breakout, hype, correction, and accumulation. The past few cycles have been crazy—just look at 2017 and 2021, where Bitcoin hit insane highs.

 

 

This cycle could be shaping up to be no different, especially with Bitcoin’s halving event just behind us. Historically, the year after a halving event tends to be a good one for Bitcoin, and with inflation data looking supportive, there’s a good chance this market could still have room to run.

 

But Bitcoin's history has also shown that even during bull runs, we see price corrections of 20% to 30%. We've already seen Bitcoin dip by over 8% from its all-time high set last December, so expect some turbulence along the way. It’s not unusual for Bitcoin to take a breather before pushing higher.

 

Of course, Bitcoin’s history since its launch in 2009 is relatively short. With such a small sample size, its historical price data might not hold as much weight. Plus, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

But, from the data indicators, Bitcoin might still be in the middle of the cycle rather than at its peak. Analysts from crypto asset management firm 21Shares have shared some "on-chain" indicators suggesting that Bitcoin hasn’t reached its cycle peak yet and still has room to grow.

 

1. MVRV Ratio: Currently sitting between 2.5 and 3, this suggests Bitcoin is not yet in bubble territory. Historically, when the MVRV ratio exceeds 7, we’ve seen the market top out. So, we’re still a ways off from overheating.

 

 

2. Unrealized Net Profit and Loss: This metric measures whether the market as a whole is sitting on profits or losses. Bitcoin is currently showing a profit between 0.5 and 0.75, which signals potential for a sell-off, but it’s not yet at the point of peak excitement (typically above 0.75).

 

3. Seller Risk Ratio for Long-Term Holders: Short-term holders seem to be responsible for the recent pullbacks, but the real danger to the market comes from long-term holders selling their coins. Currently, the seller risk ratio is well below historical peaks, indicating there’s still a lot of room for growth before hitting a selling frenzy.

 

 

So, are we still in the early innings of this bull run, or is Bitcoin about to hit a wall? I’m leaning toward the former—though a bit of turbulence is likely ahead, the fundamentals (like inflation data and the halving) suggest there’s more potential on the horizon.

 

What do you guys think? $BTC #bitcoin #crypto