Global Highlights This Week: NVIDIA's Earnings Report Is Approaching, and the Inflation Data Most Favored by the Federal Reserve Is Coming

Last week, the S&P 500 index hit new highs for two consecutive trading days in the first two trading days, but took a sharp turn for the worse in the last two trading days. On Friday, all three major indexes fell by more than 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index plunged by 2%.

 

Analysts believe that a series of economic data in the United States has triggered concerns about the economy, echoing the negative performance outlook released by the retail giant Walmart last Thursday. At the same time, the U.S. government is formulating a series of tariff policies, and these factors together have had an impact on the stock market.

 

Looking ahead to this week, in terms of data, the revised report on the U.S. real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be released on Thursday (February 27th), and the U.S. personal consumption expenditure report will be released on Friday (February 28th), which includes the PCE price data most favored by the Federal Reserve.

 

Currently, the market expects that the annual rate of the U.S. PCE price index in January will slow down by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5%, and the core PCE will slow down by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%. Both are still some distance away from the central bank's target of 2%. The latest released Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that officials tend to keep interest rates unchanged.

 

Ron Temple, Chief Market Strategist at Lazard, an investment bank, said, "The market predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 38 basis points before the end of the year, but I think it will be zero." He mentioned that Trump's policies and campaign promises will both lead to inflation, such as tariff and immigration enforcement policies.

 

In addition, the game among the United States, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine has become the focus of the market recently. There is news that the Ukrainian side has already received the new version of the mineral resources agreement text proposed by the United States, and an expert group of the Ukrainian government will be launched this week, committed to reaching a mineral agreement with the United States in exchange for U.S. support.

 

In terms of earnings reports, NVIDIA is scheduled to release its quarterly results on Wednesday (February 26th) in the Eastern Time of the United States.

 

 

Mike Smith, an executive at Allspring, a U.S. asset management company, said, "When NVIDIA holds a conference call this week, the situation may be difficult, because everyone is somewhat worried about whether NVIDIA can return to its peak." Smith said that he has prepared for a violent reaction in the U.S. stock market.

 

 

Monday (February 24th): Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for February, the final annual rate of the Eurozone's CPI in January, the Dallas Fed's Business Activity Index for February in the United States, and a conference organized by the Bank of England with the theme of "The Future of Central Bank Balance Sheets" will be held.

 

Tuesday (February 25th): The final annual rate of Germany's unadjusted GDP for the fourth quarter, the monthly rate of the FHFA House Price Index in the United States for December, the annual rate of the unadjusted S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index in the United States for December, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for February in the United States, and the Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Index for February in the United States.

 

Wednesday (February 26th): Federal Reserve Governor Barr will give a speech, Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak on inflation, the annual rate of Australia's weighted CPI for January, the annualized total number of new home sales in the United States for January, the EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending February 21st in the United States, and the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting will be held.

 

Thursday (February 27th): Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on the economic outlook and the real estate market, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed people in Germany for February, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting in January, the initial jobless claims for the week ending February 22nd in the United States, the revised annualized quarterly rate of the U.S. real GDP for the fourth quarter, the monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States for January, and the monthly rate of the Pending Home Sales Index in the United States for January.

 

Friday (February 28th): Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak on the economic outlook, the annual rate of the core PCE price index in the United States for January, and the Chicago PMI for February in the United States.

 

Saturday (March 1st): Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will give a speech.