Global Highlights This Week: Trump Says Cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine Conflict is Expected, PCE Inflation Data is Coming

Last week, the three major US stock indexes recorded gains, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq avoided falling for the fifth consecutive week. However, compared with the previous declines, the rebound last week was not very strong.

Earlier last week, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate level unchanged and announced a slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening, which boosted the US stock market. But the resolution also mentioned an increase in uncertainties. The bank raised its inflation forecast and lowered its growth forecast in its economic projections.

In terms of data, the final report on the real GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter of 2024 will be released this Thursday (March 27th), and the personal consumption expenditure report for February will be released this Friday (March 28th). Among them is the PCE price data, which is the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator. The market expects that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE will remain at 2.5%, and the core PCE will rebound from 2.6% to 2.7%.

After the PCE report, the University of Michigan will also release the final report of the consumer confidence index for March, which includes consumers' inflation rate expectations for one year and five to ten years. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned this data at a press conference, stating that the central bank will pay attention to this abnormal data.

At the same time, the US tariff policy remains a focus of attention on Wall Street. The Trump administration plans to implement "reciprocal" tariffs on April 2nd, and Trump has also called April 2nd the "Liberation Day" of the United States. There are reports that France hopes the European Union will consider taking strong retaliatory measures with an "anti-coercion tool".

In terms of geopolitics, the delegations from Russia and the United States will hold talks in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, this Monday (March 24th). Previously, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump had a phone call to focus on discussions about the normalization of US-Russia relations and the situation in Ukraine. Trump claimed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would soon achieve a comprehensive ceasefire.

Currently, the situation in the Middle East has not shown obvious signs of cooling down. The Israeli military has continued to launch air strikes and shelling against neighboring countries and has carried out ground operations in multiple places in the Gaza Strip. This week, a US defense official said that the United States will deploy a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East region to strengthen the crackdown on the Houthi armed group in Yemen.

An overview of important overseas economic events this week (Eastern Time in the United States):

Monday (March 24th): Talks between US and Russian officials on the Russia-Ukraine issue will be held in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia; Flash PMIs for Eurozone manufacturing, services, and composite sectors in March; Flash PMIs for US S&P Global manufacturing, services, and composite sectors in March.
Tuesday (March 25th): The monthly rate of the US FHFA house price index for January; New York Fed President John Williams will deliver an opening speech at an event; The annualized total number of new home sales in the United States in February; The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March; The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for March in the United States.
Wednesday (March 26th): The monthly rate of the UK CPI for February; UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will announce the Spring Budget statement; The monthly rate of US durable goods orders for February; The EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending March 21st in the United States.
Thursday (March 27th): St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will deliver a speech; The initial jobless claims for the week ending March 22nd in the United States; The final annualized quarterly rate of the real GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter of 2024; The monthly rate of the US existing home sales pending index for February.
Friday (March 28th): The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions of the members of the Monetary Policy Meeting in March; The final annual rate of the UK GDP in the fourth quarter; The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed people in Germany in March; The industrial sentiment index of the Eurozone in March; The monthly rate of the GDP of Canada in January; The annual rate of the US core PCE price index for February; The final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for March and the final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States.
Saturday (March 29th): Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will deliver a speech.