Global Highlights This Week: Focus on the Implementation of Trump's "Reciprocal Tariffs" and the Upcoming Non - Farm Payrolls Report

 

This week, there is a time point that is highly likely to be written into future economics textbooks. The so-called "Trump's reciprocal tariffs," which are widely regarded as harmful to others without benefiting oneself, will be announced on April 2 local time, and the announcement time roughly corresponds to late at night on Tuesday to early morning on Wednesday this week in Eastern Time.

 

However, the biggest problem at present is that the US government still hasn't figured out how to levy these tariffs.

 

According to reports from several mainstream US media last weekend, although Trump's aides are making efforts to formulate a plan, due to the erratic personality of the US President, who keeps making contradictory demands, even Vice President Vance, White House Chief of Staff Susan Wiles, and a group of cabinet officials have privately expressed that they are unsure of what Trump really wants to do.

 

According to the political media Politico, quoting an "ally closely related to Trump's inner circle," "What tariffs are they going to impose? On whom? And what is the tariff rate? There are still no answers to these most basic questions."

 

Insiders expect that the tariffs announced this week are highly likely to repeat the mistakes of previous hasty announcements. Similar to the situation before the announcement of auto tariffs last Wednesday, the White House had to postpone the afternoon's agenda to rush to complete the announcement, and it also did not notify important stakeholders in advance because the policy was only finalized before the announcement. As a result of this chaos, the US NASDAQ index dropped by more than 2% both last Wednesday and last Friday.

 

The chaotic tariff policy is also reflected in the constantly adjusted schedule. The tariffs that Trump promised to impose on Canada and Mexico on his first day in office were first postponed to February 1, then to February 4, then to March 4, and finally, most of them were postponed to April 2. It is still unclear how much of the policy that may affect trade worth trillions of dollars will come into effect this week.

 

According to reports, in recent days, US Commerce Secretary Lutnik told US trading partners who were seeking clear information that he would "try his best" to notify them one day in advance before April 2 and explained that the details are currently changing too much.

 

At the same time, US Trade Representative Misen Greer told a group of Republican senators who were dissatisfied with the policy uncertainty at a lunch meeting last Tuesday that he believed the situation would be clearer after April 2.

 

Of course, the global market is also preparing for the worst-case scenario. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group said in an analyst report that it is expected that the "reciprocal tariffs" will be a policy that levies taxes on a wide range of goods, and the US will take more aggressive actions against countries with a large trade deficit.

 

The only thing certain now is that if Trump introduces a tariff policy with a wide range of impacts this week, he will surely face a collective and forceful counterattack from global trading partners. In the words of the European Union, a tough counterattack is the only way to make Trump sit down and negotiate.

 

In addition to the tariff issue, there are also many economic data and events this week. First of all, the US JOLTs job openings data, ADP employment report, and non-farm payrolls data will all be released this week. As the second full month since Trump took office, the market is also observing how much impact his reckless policies will have on the US job market. After the release of the non-farm payrolls data this Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech.

 

At the same time, there will also be PMI reports from all over the world this week, showing the economic activity trends in various regions.

 

At the corporate level, starting from this Monday, Intel will hold a two-day Intel Vision event, and the new CEO, Chen Lijun, will deliver the opening keynote speech. This Tuesday (April 1) is also the day when various car companies disclose their first-quarter delivery data, among which Tesla's performance is particularly noticeable.

 

In addition to Trump's tariffs this Wednesday, Nintendo will hold an unveiling event for the Switch 2, and it is expected that this new game console will be launched in June.

 

This Friday is the 50th anniversary of the establishment of Microsoft Corporation. A special media event will be held at its headquarters, and there may be some announcements related to AI and Copilot. On the same day, the blockbuster movie "Minecraft" of Warner Bros. will premiere in the United States, and its global total box office is expected to hit the $1 billion mark.

Overview of important economic events this week:

• Monday: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the relevant situation of the 8th Digital China Construction Summit, China's official manufacturing PMI in March, US Chicago PMI in March, and Germany's CPI in March.
• Tuesday: China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in March, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces the interest rate decision, Japan's unemployment rate in February, Eurozone CPI in March, US ISM manufacturing PMI in March, US JOLTs job openings in February, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech at the AI conference.
• Wednesday: US ADP employment change in March.US President Trump plans to announce the "reciprocal tariffs".
• Thursday: China's Caixin services PMI in March, US trade balance in February, and the European Central Bank releases the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting.
• Friday: Exchanges in China (including Hong Kong and Taiwan) are closed for the Qingming Festival, US non-farm payrolls report in March, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gives a speech.