Regarding Gold Prices

Gold prices are skyrocketing. S&P 500 futures are down nearly -100 points, and today's intraday sell-off continues.

To emphasize once again: This is investors selling US stocks and bonds, shifting from dollar assets to gold assets. It's highly unusual for gold to rise while US risk assets are significantly shrinking, rather than rising simultaneously with US inflation or credit panic (as in 2008), in what appears to be a global repricing of collateral and currency wars.

Let's compare with history:

In 2008, during the global financial crisis, gold was initially sold off along with risk assets due to forced deleveraging and margin calls affecting everything. Later, gold trended upwards as QE and interest rate suppression policies were initiated.

In March 2020, there was a similar dynamic liquidation of gold initially to obtain dollar liquidity, followed by a parabolic surge as real yields collapsed.

Now, in 2025, gold is not being sold off in liquidations. Instead, it's being accumulated like premium collateral, even as the VIX breaks 40, long-end yields surge, and the US yield curve steepens bearishly.

This is the key point. In previous systemic shocks, gold traded like an asset. Now, it's trading like collateral hedging against currency disorder and US sovereign term risk.

This move suggests the US market is preemptively adapting to a shift in US sovereign risk mechanisms, possibly anticipating US Treasury dysfunction, repo pressures (as noted by the BIS), or full-scale currency wars post-tariffs.

Now, gold is no longer an after-the-fact safe haven; it's becoming a preemptive protection target, indicating that the US market doesn't believe US Treasuries or dollar cash are still risk-free.

We're entering a phase where gold becomes the premium collateral in US markets, especially as SOFR-IORB spreads rise and repo spreads widen. Both US stocks and bonds are affected by volatility, margin calls, and loss of confidence in the US "risk-free term." The Fed and US Treasury will be forced to coordinate before intervention, tasked not only with restoring liquidity but also stabilizing the US Treasury market itself through yield caps or direct balance sheet intervention.

This is going to kill Trump~