Goldman Sachs Raises Gold Price 2025 Target to $3,700 – In Extreme Case, $4,500 Is Possible

On April 11, Goldman Sachs' Lina Thomas team released its latest gold outlook, raising the 2025 year-end target from $3,300 to $3,700 per ounce. The expected trading range is now set between $3,650–$3,950.

Even more striking: In a tail-risk scenario, Goldman says gold could surge to $4,500 per ounce. It's a low-probability case — but not out of reach.

Why Is Goldman So Bullish?

Goldman attributes its upward revision to three main drivers:

Central Bank Demand Is Booming

One of the key drivers has been the strength of central bank gold buying. Goldman now estimates monthly purchases at 80 tons — up from 70 tons previously. That's still below the post-2022 average of 86 tons/month, but way above the pre-2022 norm of just 17 tons/month.

In fact, since November, central banks have been on a tear, averaging 109 tons/month through February. This buying spree is a clear sign that central banks are diversifying away from fiat reserves — and gold is once again their preferred safety net.

ETF Inflows Are Climbing on Recession Fears

Gold ETFs are seeing inflows again — despite high interest rates. Why? Simple: fear is back. Volatile equity markets and a growing recession risk are pushing investors back into gold.

Goldman now sees a 45% chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months. If that happens, ETF inflows could pick up speed, potentially lifting gold to $3,880 by year-end.

Gold as the Go-To Hedge

Let's be honest — gold has always been the "break glass in case of panic" asset. And right now, there's plenty of panic to go around: U.S. policy uncertainty, shaky geopolitics, bond market stress... You name it.

Goldman is doubling down on its long gold call, citing gold's unique role in hedging systemic risks.

The Extreme Scenario: $4,500/oz?

Goldman outlines a scenario that could send gold soaring to $4,500. It's unlikely, but here's what would need to happen:

Central banks boost purchases to 110 tons/month (which we've already seen briefly).
ETF holdings rebound to pandemic-era highs — a sign investors are truly spooked.
Speculative positioning reaches extreme levels, like in 2011 and 2020.
Markets start doubting Fed independence or the stability of U.S. reserve policy.

Put all that together, and $4,500/oz becomes a very real possibility — that's a 40%+ gain from current spot prices (~$3,237).

My Take

Short-term: Gold looks overbought after a parabolic move. A pullback wouldn't surprise me — but don't expect it to last long. Dips will likely be bought fast.
Long-term: The bull case is legit. Central bank demand remains strong, real rates are peaking, and recession fears are sticky. $4,000+ isn't fantasyland.
Risks: If the Fed delays cuts or the U.S. economy stays resilient, gold could flatten. But the upside skew is undeniable.

Bottom Line

Goldman's update reinforces what gold bulls already know: this rally isn't just about inflation or rate cuts — it's about structural demand, hedging against tail risks, and global anxiety.

I'm not betting on $4,500. But $3,700 to $4,000 looks increasingly likely. If you're still underweight gold, this might be your wake-up call.

What's your view? #gold #goldmansachs