Intel Q1 2025 Earnings Preview: Can Tariff-Driven Demand Offset Structural Challenges?

Intel ($INTC) is set to report its Q1 2025 earnings after market close on Thursday, April 24. It will also mark the debut of new CEO Lip-Bu Tan on the earnings call—a closely watched event as Intel navigates a critical transition phase.

Stock Performance

Intel had a rough 2024, with shares down nearly 60%. Yet, year-to-date in 2025, the stock is only down 5.59%, outperforming the S&P 500 (-10.18%) and the PHLX Semiconductor Index (-23%).

Analysts point to tariff-related demand—especially PC chip stockpiling ahead of possible reinstated Trump-era tariffs—as a short-term tailwind. Whether this demand holds beyond Q1 is still unclear.

Q1 Expectations

According to Bloomberg estimates, Intel is expected to post:

Revenue: $12.3 billion (↓ ~3.2% YoY), still above the company’s own low-end guidance of $11.7 billion.
EPS: $0.01 (↓ ~96.3% YoY), with some forecasts suggesting a possible loss of -$0.25/share.

Segment breakdown:

Client Computing: ~$6.93B (↓ ~8% YoY). Temporary support from inventory build, but overall PC demand remains weak.
Data Center & AI: ~$2.96B (↓ ~2% YoY). Ongoing pressure from Nvidia and AMD.
Network & Edge: ~$1.46B (↑ ~7% YoY). A more stable contributor.
Foundry (IFS): ~$4.3B (↓ ~1.5% YoY). Still deep in losses, breakeven not expected before 2027.

Investors will be watching closely for guidance on margins, capital spending, and signs of demand normalization post-tariff effects.

Lip-Bu Tan’s First Moves

Tan took over in March and quickly made headlines by selling 51% of Intel’s Altera business to Silver Lake for $4.46 billion. The deal values Altera at about half the price Intel paid in 2015. JPMorgan called it a “step in the right direction,” though it also highlights past strategic missteps.

On the call, expect Tan to be pressed on:

Plans to narrow losses in the foundry unit (which lost $2.3B last quarter)
Intel’s roadmap to remain competitive in AI and advanced chip manufacturing

Key Themes to Watch

1. AI Push in PCs, Not the Cloud

Intel is betting on AI PCs, aiming to ship 100 million units by 2025. But in server-side AI, it’s still well behind Nvidia and AMD. The high-profile Falcon Shores chip has been delayed, with more modest Jaguar Shores now taking the spotlight.

2. Foundry Ambitions vs. Reality

Intel is betting on its 18A node to revive competitiveness, with Panther Lake and Nova Lake chips expected in late 2025 and 2026. But IFS remains far from profitable, and many investors are skeptical it can challenge TSMC at scale.

3. Tariff-Driven Demand May Not Last

BofA and others warn that Q1’s relative strength could be the result of customers front-loading orders ahead of tariffs. That may mean softer demand in the next few quarters.

Intel has received $2.2 billion in CHIPS Act funding so far. More details may emerge during its April 29 foundry update.

What the Options Market Is Saying

The market is bracing for volatility:

Implied Volatility: 73.39% (94th percentile)
Historical Volatility: 87.90%
Expected move post-earnings: ±8.93%
Put/Call Ratio: 0.60 (moderately bullish)

Last quarter, a “neutral” earnings call led to a 5.4% decline in Intel’s stock. This time, with expectations so low, a mild beat could send shares higher—at least in the short term.

Bottom Line

Intel could post a better-than-feared quarter, helped by tariff-driven demand and a reset in expectations. But longer-term questions remain around its foundry strategy, AI competitiveness, and overall execution.

The focus now shifts to Lip-Bu Tan:

Can he restore investor confidence?

Can Intel’s foundry ambitions gain traction?

And will the AI-PC strategy prove more than a niche?

We’ll learn more this week—but the road ahead remains uncertain. #intel #Q1EarningsInsight