US Stocks Continue to Rise Today: Have All Negative Factors Been Priced In?

Some MAGA supporters are already cheering, "All negative factors for US stocks have been priced in, the bull market is coming back!"

Forgive my frankness, but this is not a case of all negative factors being priced in. Rather, it's a mirage woven together by Trump's sudden narrative shift and liquidity drought.

The surge in US stock index futures triggered by Trump's comments can hardly be called "policy-driven." It's more like a temporary release of psychological pressure in the US market.

The US market has entered a state of being neck-deep in a swamp. When the global financing pressure noose, the US swap spread inversion, and deflationary positioning form a triple lock, any seemingly helpful lifeline will be grasped at desperately. I'm more inclined to believe this is a stress response or PTSD of the US market, not a structural reversal - there is no structural reversal.

Peeling back the facade of a 2-point rebound, the US macro liquidity pipeline reveals a completely different truth: SOFR pressure continues to rise, 3-year swap spreads remain negative, the USD/JPY exchange rate is coiling like a compressed spring, accumulating carry trade potential, while the US credit market, which truly carries macro beliefs, has yet to confirm any sustainable return of risk appetite.

It means Trump has ruined US sovereign credit.

While capital costs continue to strangle the real economy in the shadows, any rebound in the US market is merely a "patch-up" pulse - brief, fragile, and subject to violent reversals at any time.

Who knows what nonsense Trump will spout tomorrow?

The current market reality is actually a classic gamma squeeze: market makers' positions are imbalanced, volatility is overstretched, short-term fund flows have collectively bet in the wrong direction. Add to this a dose of Trump-branded emotional headlines, and you get a mechanical rebound rather than an organic bullish belief. Without real liquidity injection, the small promissory note Trump has opened can't possibly sustain momentum in the US market.

What's really surging in the US today is not the market, but a fragile resonance of hope, conditioned reflexes, and positioning. If the fundamental contradictions in the US financing system, volatility misalignment, lack of fiscal coordination, and excessive deficit issuance are not resolved, all of America's prosperity will ultimately be a bubble.

Therefore, unless the current US political rhetoric can be translated into tangible liquidity signals - such as Trump actually signing an executive order to completely abolish excessive tariffs, adjusting US Treasury issuance, Federal Reserve intervention, credit easing, etc. - this dead cat bounce will dissipate as quickly as fireworks.

It doesn't matter, Trump is happier than fireworks.