Global Smartphone Market 2025: Flat Shipments, Higher Value – Reports Decoded

Goldman Sachs’ latest Global Tech report, titled Smartphone TAM Update: Shipment Flat in 2025, paints a nuanced picture of the smartphone market in 2025. It offers a comprehensive look at the current state and future projections of the global smartphone market, with some intriguing insights into shipment trends, market segments, and the potential impact of emerging technologies like foldables and AI.

Key Takeaways on Smartphone Market

The report reveals that the global smartphone market is facing a period of stagnation.

Goldman Sachs has revised its shipment forecast downward, predicting a flat year-over-year (YoY) growth rate in 2025, with 1.24 billion units expected to be shipped. This trend is expected to continue, with modest growth of 1% YoY in both 2026 and 2027.

While shipments may be flat, the market value is expected to grow at a faster pace, driven by continuous specification upgrades.

The global smartphone market value is projected to reach $546 billion in 2025, up 2% YoY. This trend is expected to continue with 4% and 3% YoY growth, reaching $568B and $582B in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

At present, although there are many new AI features (e.g., smarter assistants, on-device AI), they have yet to trigger a significant upgrade wave. Combined with geopolitical uncertainties and tariff risks, consumers are holding onto devices longer, contributing to this flat growth.

The Rise of New Technologies: AI and Foldables

The integration of AI features into smartphones is another key trend. While AI has not yet sparked a significant replacement cycle due to the lack of "killer apps," it is expected to play a more prominent role in future models. Brands are increasingly focusing on AI capabilities to enhance user experience and differentiate their products in a competitive market.

Another trend highlighted in the report is the increasing penetration of foldable phones. Despite a modest start in 2024, Goldman Sachs expects significant growth in the coming years.

Foldable phone shipments are projected to reach 35.8 million units in 2025, 44.1 million in 2026, and 54.0 million in 2027, representing YoY growth of 6%, 23%, and 23%, and a penetration rate of 2.9%, 3.5%, and 4.3%, respectively.

This growth is driven by new model launches, improving supply chains, innovative designs, and more affordable prices that make foldables more appealing.

Market Segmentation by Price Band

The report also breaks down the smartphone market into three segments based on pricing:

Premium (>$600)
Mid-end ($200–$600)
Entry-level (<$200)

The premium segment is expected to outgrow the market average, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2025 to 2027. This segment will account for 33% of the total volume by 2027, up from 27% in 2024.

In contrast, the mid-end segment is shrinking due to a lack of revolutionary technology upgrades and more conservative consumer behavior, with a projected CAGR of -9% over the same period.

Entry-level (<$200) smartphones are set to see steady growth, supported by 4G-to-5G upgrades in developing markets and consumer budget tightening. Volume is expected to grow at a 2% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, reaching 46% of total shipments, up slightly from 44% in 2024.

China's Dominance in Mid-End Segment

In China, the mid-end segment currently dominates the market by volume, accounting for 41% of total shipments in 2024. However, this segment is also expected to slow down, with its contribution to total shipments declining to 38% by 2027.

The premium segment in China is expected to grow at a 4% CAGR by shipment and value, increasing its market share to 32% by 2027.

Conclusion

The global smartphone market is at an interesting crossroads. While overall shipment growth remains flat, the market value is expected to rise, driven by premiumization and specification upgrades. The increasing penetration of foldable phones and the potential of AI integration offer new opportunities for growth.

For investors, it may be worth paying attention to the premium smartphone brands and foldable supply chain players, as they are likely to benefit the most from evolving market dynamics. At the same time, geopolitical risks, such as tariffs and export controls, should also be considered.

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