Strong April Nonfarm Payroll Data

Let’s talk about the U.S. "strong April jobs numbers."

At first glance, the headline is "stunning": 177,000 new jobs vs. an expectation of 138,000, outperforming even Wall Street’s most optimistic forecast (171,000) by two standard deviations.

But what the loyal U.S. media won’t tell you is this: 393,000 jobs—more than double the reported total—were derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) "birth/death model."

What does this model mean? It’s a statistical adjustment based on hypothetical calculations, assuming that "the formation of new businesses will inevitably increase employment," rather than being derived from actual surveys.

This model is particularly absurd during economic inflection points because it’s based on historical seasonal trends.

So now, the Trump administration claims that—despite surging credit stress, collapsing small-business optimism, Fed tightening, and demand shocks from tariffs—U.S. entrepreneurs are hiring at a pace not seen since 2023.

In reality, this assumption is severely disconnected from actual economic activity.

After stripping out the birth/death adjustment and accounting for other negative signals—such as:

- The U-6 underemployment rate rising from 7.4% to 7.6%

- Permanent job losses increasing (from 1.8 million to 1.9 million)

- Slowing wage growth

- Stagnant average weekly hours (suggesting labor hoarding, not expansion)

—the observed job growth may actually be close to zero or even negative.

This is not a sign of economic strength under the Trump administration (even Trump won’t claim it—today, he said: "This is Biden’s economy"). Instead, it’s a data construct rooted in a fragile statistical framework. The two-standard-deviation "market surprise" is just a facade—the underlying labor market is quietly deteriorating.

Common sense dictates that at the end of a cycle, one should scrutinize trusted indicators carefully. But today, the U.S. market "optimistically rallied." Unlike MAGA believers who might genuinely buy into this narrative, do institutional investors really not know better?

This statistical anomaly is not a trend reversal. The 393,000 birth/death adjustment is the largest since early 2023, coinciding with negative signals from leading indicators (NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, credit issuance, new business formations). It paints a false picture of broad-based labor market strength while actual organic growth is far weaker.

Unless the BLS repeats this adjustment next month, the jobs report will likely sharply "miss expectations" or be quietly revised down.

The true fundamentals of Trump’s economy:

- Rising underemployment

- Increasing permanent job losses

- Stagnant average work hours

- Elevated multiple jobholders

Even if the headline looks strong, job quality is deteriorating—more part-time work, lower pay, and greater instability.

Will U.S. media loudly announce that "prior nonfarm payrolls were revised down from 228,000 to 185,000"?

No. The original figure was called "proof of a strong U.S. economy." The silent revision? Just "the great self-correcting mechanism of the U.S. economy."

A victory of propaganda.