Boeing Cuts Global New Aircraft Demand Forecast for Next 20 Years Under Multiple Pressures!

According to a "20-Year Commercial Aircraft Demand Forecast" released by Boeing, the demand for new aircraft deliveries is expected to reach 43,600 units by 2044.$BA 

 

The forecast was released just ahead of the opening of the Paris Airshow.  

 

Compared with Boeing's forecast released during the same period last year, the projected new aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years have been revised downward. Last year, Boeing had expected 43,975 new aircraft deliveries by 2043.  

 

In comparison with peer forecasts, last week, Boeing's European rival Airbus raised its 20-year commercial demand forecast by 2% to 43,420 aircraft, noting that the air transport industry is expected to navigate through current trade tensions safely.  

 

Boeing also expects that more than half (51%) of new aircraft demand over the next 20 years will come from growth rather than replacing old aircraft.  

 

According to Boeing's delivery plan, this includes nearly 33,300 single-aisle passenger aircraft, over 7,800 wide-body aircraft, 955 factory-built cargo planes, and 1,545 regional aircraft. This means single-aisle passenger aircraft account for 80% of total deliveries.  

Reduced Passenger Traffic Growth Forecast

Meanwhile, in this forecast report, Boeing has lowered its 20-year passenger traffic growth forecast from 4.7% last year to 4.2% this year; global economic growth expectations from 2.6% to 2.3%; and air cargo traffic growth expectations from 4.1% to 3.7%.  

 

Despite the lower cargo traffic forecast, Darren Hulst, Vice President of Boeing Commercial Marketing, remained optimistic at a briefing, predicting that global trade fluctuations would not significantly alter long-term demand.  

 

He noted, "I think we need to look back at the value air cargo has brought us over the past 20, 40, 60 years, and the approximately 4% growth rate of the air cargo market during that time."  

 

He also said that demand for air travel has rebounded since the COVID-19 pandemic, but aircraft production is only half or less of pre-pandemic levels, leading to a shortage of 1,500 to 2,000 aircraft.  

 

Currently, both Boeing and its peer Airbus are striving to restore aircraft production to pre-pandemic levels. However, Boeing has been mired in production safety issues for more than a year, so the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has limited the production of 737 aircraft to 38 units per month.  

 

Under FAA supervision, Boeing has significantly improved product quality in recent months. However, the crash of an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner this Thursday has plunged Boeing back into crisis. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg canceled his plan to attend the Paris Airshow to assist in the crash investigation.