Tonight's Focus | Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict Sends All Three US Stock Index Futures Lower

On Tuesday, as the conflict between Israel and Iran continued to intensify, U.S. stock index futures fell while major European stock indices dropped across the board. U.S. President Trump posted on his self-created social media platform Truth Social on Monday, stating: "Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran." Trump also left the G7 summit in Canada ahead of schedule to address the Middle East situation.

French President Macron said on Monday that Trump had proposed a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. However, Trump denied that his departure from the G7 was related to the ceasefire, stating: "This has nothing to do with the ceasefire; it's much bigger than that."

Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid wrote in a report: "We are now in a state of uncertainty. It is unclear whether the summit produced tangible results, or whether Trump's post and early departure hint at new developments."

As the conflict escalated, international oil prices rose on Tuesday, with both Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures up more than 2%.

Despite tensions in the Middle East, U.S. stocks still recorded gains on Monday. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.94%, the Dow Jones Index rose 0.75%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.52%.

Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said: "Israel's short-term main goal is to eliminate Iran's nuclear threat. In the long term, the more challenging goal is to achieve regime change, but whether this can be achieved remains unclear."

He added that although each conflict is unique, an analysis of 25 geopolitical shocks since the 1941 Pearl Harbor incident shows that the stock market has demonstrated some resilience in such events. The average maximum decline in the stock market during these events was 4.6%, with a duration of approximately 19 days.

Pre-market data showed that U.S. retail sales fell 0.9% month-on-month in May, compared with an estimated decline of 0.6%.

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