ADDX GO Market Morning Wrap - 25th June

Stock Market  

Easing Middle East tensions after a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran boosted market sentiment.  

 

On Tuesday Eastern Time, U.S. stocks opened higher and closed with gains over 1%. The Nasdaq rose 1.43%, the Dow gained 1.19%, and the S&P 500 climbed 1.11%. The Dow hit its highest close since early March, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached their highest since late February.  

 

Most large-cap tech stocks advanced, with Intel soaring over 6%, Nvidia, Netflix, and Amazon up over 2%, Meta up more than 1%, and Microsoft and Google slightly higher. Tesla fell over 2%, and Apple dipped slightly. Stablecoin leader Circle plunged over 15%, with its market cap dropping below $50 billion.  $CRCL 

 

Trump previously announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, but the deal appears highly fragile, with both sides accusing each other of violations. Still, investors see the ceasefire as a sign of de-escalation.  

 

Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments, said, “The market is rallying strongly; the ceasefire has really fueled a rebound in risk assets. We believe investors betting on Middle East de-escalation are benefiting stocks, though it’s weighing on bonds and oil prices.”  

 

Jon Brager, portfolio manager at Palmer Square, commented, “For markets, the key is the U.S.’s involvement and Iran’s weak response—it’s essentially a choreographed show. Even with occasional post-ceasefire clashes, markets have largely dismissed this risk, shifting focus back to tariffs and fiscal policy.”  

 

During his testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation is expected to rise soon, and the Fed will continue monitoring the economy before deciding on rate cuts.  

 

This stance clashes with Trump’s call for immediate rate cuts. Earlier Tuesday, Trump again slammed Powell: “I hope Congress gives this super foolish, stubborn man a lesson. We’ll pay for his incompetence for years to come.”  

 

Markets currently price in over a 20% chance of a Fed rate cut at the July meeting, with nearly 70% odds for a September cut.  

 

On economic data, U.S. consumer confidence slipped in June due to uncertainties from Trump’s trade policies, reversing May’s improvement.  

 

Consumer pessimism about the job market hit its lowest level since March 2021, and the share expecting a recession in the next 12 months slightly rose.  

Global Hotspots

EU Prepares More Tariff Countermeasures to Pressure U.S. According to the *Financial Times* on June 24, Björn Seibert, chief of staff to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, said the EU must align its stance before the July 9 U.S.-EU trade talks deadline and prepare additional tariff countermeasures to pose a “credible threat” to the U.S. Von der Leyen is ready to escalate tariff measures to secure a better deal.  

 

U.S. Initial Assessment: Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Not “Fully Destroyed”. A preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment indicates the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities did not destroy them, likely only setting back Iran’s nuclear program by months, per CNN, citing three informed sources.  

 

Japan Conducts First Domestic “Long-Range” Missile Launch Drill. On June 24, Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force conducted a launch drill for the “Type 88 Surface-to-Ship Missile” at Hokkaido’s Shizunai Air-to-Ground Range, marking Japan’s first domestic test of a missile with a range over 100 km. Previously, such tests were conducted overseas. TBS reported that local civic groups protested outside the Self-Defense Forces base during the drill.  

 

Israel’s Transport Minister: Plans to Fully Reopen Airspace. On June 24, Israeli Transport Minister Miri Regev said Israel is advancing a plan to fully reopen its airspace, including increasing flight numbers, extending airport hours, and introducing foreign airlines.  

 

German Cabinet Approves Budget Draft, Boosts Defense Spending. On June 24, Germany’s cabinet approved its 2025 budget draft and 2026 budget framework. The 2025 draft allocates €115.7 billion for investments, rising to €123.6 billion in 2026, a significant increase from 2024’s €74.5 billion.  

 

Fed’s Kashkari: More Clarity Needed on Tariff Impacts. Fed’s Neel Kashkari said recent inflation data is “quite positive,” but the Fed needs more clarity on how tariffs will affect prices before adjusting policy. “The last two or three months of inflation data have been quite positive, suggesting the disinflation path I described is on track.”  

Company News  

Uber and Waymo Expand Partnership, Launch Robotaxi Service in Atlanta. On Tuesday, Uber announced an expanded partnership with Waymo to launch a Robotaxi service in Atlanta. Uber’s stock surged nearly 8%, up 52% year-to-date.  $UBER 

 

AI Training on Purchased Books Not Infringement: U.S. AI Startup Wins Landmark Case. A California Northern District Court ruling found that AI startup Anthropic’s digitization of legally purchased books for AI model training falls under fair use, marking a groundbreaking win for the AI industry.  

 

Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy Enters India, World’s Third-Largest Obese Market, Starting at $50/Week. On Tuesday, Novo Nordisk announced the launch of five Wegovy semaglutide injection doses in India, with pricing tailored to local affordability. The 0.25 mg, 0.5 mg, and 1 mg doses are priced at 17,345 INR monthly, equivalent to 4,366 INR ($50) weekly.  $NVOH 

 

FedEx Q4 Adjusted Operating Profit of $2.02 Billion Beats Expectations. FedEx’s Q4 adjusted operating profit reached $2.02 billion, topping analyst expectations of $1.91 billion. Due to global demand uncertainty, the company withheld full-year profit guidance. It forecasts Q1 adjusted EPS of $3.40-$4.00, below analyst expectations of $4.03.  $FDX 

Forex & Commodities  

International crude futures settled sharply lower, down over 6%.

 

WTI crude August contract fell 6.04% to $64.37/barrel. Brent crude August contract dropped 6.07% to $67.14/barrel.  

 

COMEX gold futures fell 1.71% to $3,336.9/ounce; COMEX silver futures dipped 0.9% to $35.86/ounce.  

 

Zaner Metals’ senior strategist Peter Grant said easing Middle East tensions reduced gold’s safe-haven demand, but “some issues remain with the ceasefire… downside for gold prices may be quite limited until fully resolved.”  

 

At the New York close, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.39% to 98.38, with most non-U.S. currencies rising.  

Key Events  

Euro Hits Near 3.5-Year High, Assets Shift from Dollar to Euro. On June 24, the euro and European markets surged on multiple positives, with the euro breaking above 1.16 against the dollar, hitting 1.1641, its highest since October 2021. Amid frequent geopolitical friction, challenges to dollar dominance, and central bank policy dynamics, the euro shows short-term resilience as a key dollar alternative.  

Cryptocurrency  

Major digital assets rose Tuesday.  

 

Bitcoin gained 2.5% to $105,444, with 24-hour trading volume down 6.9% to $55.83 billion.  

 

Ethereum (ETH-USD) gained 5.1% to $2,425.  

 

XRP (XRP-USD) surged 6.9%, BNB (BNB-USD) rose 2%, Solana (SOL-USD) advanced 2.9%, Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) gained 4.8%, and Cardano (ADA-USD) was up 5.2%.  

 

The crypto market cap rose 3.1% in the past 24 hours to $3.26 trillion, with trading volume up 2.6% to $137.46 billion.  

Key Events  

BIS Warns: Stablecoins Threaten Monetary Sovereignty, Urges Faster Tokenization. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), known as the “central bank of central banks,” issued its strongest warning yet on stablecoin risks, urging countries to accelerate currency tokenization. The BIS, set to release its annual report Sunday, highlighted concerns including threats to monetary sovereignty, lack of transparency, and risks of capital flight in emerging markets.  

 

Fed Chair Powell: No Authority to Buy Bitcoin, No Plans to Seek Congressional Approval. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed has no authority to purchase Bitcoin and isn’t seeking Congressional approval to do so.  

Market Events and Most Anticipated Earnings Releases