Micron Technology’s Stock Rebounds Over 56%: Will Strong Earnings Push It to an All-Time High?

U.S. memory chip leader Micron Technology released its earnings report.  

 

Fueled by AI device demand, Micron issued optimistic guidance for the current quarter, with last quarter’s profit and revenue exceeding market expectations.  

The stock spiked 7.47% in after-hours trading on June 25 but later moderated to a slight gain.  

 

Micron projects current-quarter revenue of about $10.7 billion, above analysts’ average estimate of $9.89 billion, with adjusted EPS of roughly $2.50, beating the $2.03 forecast.  

 

Since May, Micron’s stock has risen over 56%, and I believe this strong report could push the stock past its June 2024 high of $157.  

Profit Surge, Revenue Growth Driven by DRAM

Micron’s latest quarter saw significant sales and profit growth, driven by robust AI-driven memory demand.  

 

The company forecasts current-quarter revenue of $10.4 billion to $11 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.35 to $2.65, compared to analyst expectations of $9.9 billion and $2.03 EPS.  

 

For the quarter ending May 29, profit was $1.89 billion (up 470% year-over-year), or $1.68 per share, compared to $332 million, or $0.30 per share, last year.  

 

Excluding one-time items, adjusted EPS was $1.91, beating the $1.60 forecast.  

 

Revenue grew nearly 37% to $9.3 billion, surpassing the $8.86 billion prediction, primarily driven by a nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) revenue.  

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said data center revenue doubled year-over-year, hitting a quarterly record, with HBM chip sales up nearly 50% sequentially. This reflects the booming demand for AI infrastructure, as NVIDIA and AMD’s AI chips rely on Micron’s memory, and cloud providers like Google heavily invest in AI infrastructure.  

 

Mehrotra emphasized the company’s “disciplined investments” to meet AI-driven demand.  

HBM Market Share Expected to Hit 20%

Micron reported a nearly 50% sequential increase in HBM chip sales in Q3 and plans to continue investing in these chips.  

 

The company sees rising demand for HBM and other components used in AI tool development and operations, expecting market growth as software complexity increases.  

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Micron is on track for record revenue in the fiscal year ending August, emphasizing disciplined investments to maintain technological leadership and manufacturing excellence to meet AI-driven memory demand.  

 

Rising DRAM average selling prices, stable NAND flash prices, and steady HBM growth brighten Micron’s outlook.  

 

Institutions predict HBM load capacity will grow 30% to 50% this year, with the market exceeding $35 billion. Micron’s HBM market share is expected to reach about 20% in the second half, up from an estimated 5% last year, closing the gap with SK Hynix and Samsung.  

 

However, Wedbush Securities analyst Matt Bryson noted that while Micron’s revenue was impressive, its HBM sales growth guidance didn’t meet some investors’ expectations for explosive growth, aligning roughly with prior forecasts.  

 

Synovus senior portfolio manager Dan Morgan said Micron aims to sell more memory to sectors like electric vehicles and gaming chips beyond AI revenue.  

Is It Still a Buy?

Micron’s stock initially jumped nearly 8% after hours but briefly turned negative.  

 

With AI stocks facing valuation pressures, Micron’s 56% year-to-date gain makes market caution understandable, even with strong earnings.  

I expect Micron’s DRAM inventory to tighten and NAND flash inventory to drop significantly by the end of fiscal 2025, potentially triggering repricing—a key moment to watch.  

 

Management downplayed the impact of “tariff-related customer stockpiling” as “fairly mild,” but investors should remain vigilant about such macro risks and monitor demand strength in the second half.  

 

Record revenue, explosive HBM growth, and robust cash flow paint a bright picture. The key question is whether Micron can turn current AI tailwinds into a sustainable competitive edge, not just a cyclical boom.  

 

Still, I’m optimistic Micron could hit its prior high in the next two months.$MU