S&P 500 Hits First Golden Cross in Over Two Years as Momentum Builds

The second half of 2025 is off to a strong start, and the S&P 500 $SPX just sent bulls a promising signal. On Tuesday, the index flashed its first golden cross since February 2023 — a classic technical pattern that suggests upward momentum is gaining strength.

This comes after months of steady gains and right as the market breaks out from its post-tariff pullback. So the big question now is: does this mark the start of a broader, more sustainable rally?

What the Golden Cross Means and Why It Matters

A golden cross happens when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. It’s a technical signal that short-term strength is starting to influence the long-term trend — a classic indicator of a healthy, growing market.

Think of it as the opposite of a death cross, which tends to signal bearish momentum.

And history backs it up: according to Dow Jones Market Data, after a golden cross, the S&P 500 tends to rise over the next year more than 70% of the time, with an average 12-month return above 10%. That’s better than the long-term historical average of about 8%.

Even better, looking at the last 20 golden crosses, the success rate jumps to 85%, with average gains of 13% or more.

This Isn't the Only Bullish Signal We've Seen

The golden cross isn’t the only sign that the market has turned a corner.

Back in April, we also saw a Zweig Breadth Thrust — a rare and powerful indicator that shows a sudden surge in market participation. Every time this has happened since 1982, stocks have gone on to post strong gains.

At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite also logged its own golden cross this week, and even individual names like Nvidia have followed suit. This tells us the rally isn’t just driven by the megacaps anymore — it’s starting to broaden out.

Why This Time Looks Different

Compared to the brief rebound in early 2023, this current move feels more sustainable. Here’s why:

Inflation is cooling. PCE and CPI data have shown signs of moderation, which could give the Fed room to cut rates later this year.
Consumer spending is holding up, helped by steady job and wage growth.
Policy risk has eased, with the Trump administration slowing down tariff escalation — at least for now.

In other words, this golden cross isn’t popping up in a vacuum. It’s happening alongside improving fundamentals.

But Don’t Get Carried Away

That said, not everything points up.

Some short-term indicators like the gold-to-platinum ratio have turned cautious. Also, the recent record highs haven’t been confirmed by surging volumes. That’s often a sign that investors are getting selective, or that parts of the market are getting overextended.

So while the golden cross is a bullish milestone, this isn’t the time to go all in without a strategy. Chasing highs has rarely been a sustainable move.

My Take

This golden cross feels more like a confirmation than a surprise.

We’ve seen healthy market breadth, macro support, and now, technical validation. When you see small- and mid-cap stocks join the rally, it usually means the bull market is deepening — not just widening.

Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson has set a year-end target for the S&P 500 at 6,600. That may sound aggressive, but given current momentum, it’s not off the table.

The golden cross on the S&P 500 is more than a chart pattern — it’s a signal that confidence is coming back and that the market’s trend is turning stronger.

It doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing, but it does suggest one thing:
If you're still waiting on the sidelines, it might be time to start planning your next move.