ADDX GO Market Morning Wrap - 26th July

Stock Market  

Optimism over a potential U.S.-EU trade deal lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new highs.

 

Tech stocks mostly rose, Tesla up over 3%, Microsoft, Google, and Broadcom up under 1%, Intel down over 8%. Auto and space stocks led gains, GM up over 2%, Ford and Rivian up over 1%. Coal, metal raw materials, and semiconductors lagged, Kaiser Aluminum down over 5%, ASML down nearly 2%.  

 

Reports say EU Commission President von der Leyen and President Trump held a call, discussing current trade ties. Von der Leyen noted an agreement to meet face-to-face in Scotland on Sunday to focus on trade cooperation and disputes.  

 

This meeting is seen as a key moment in EU-U.S. tariff talks. Earlier, Trump said a deal with the EU might be near.  

 

Recent U.S. stock highs, driven by strong Q2 earnings, U.S.-Japan-Philippines deals, and potential White House agreements, have investors fearing daily gains.

 

Globalalt’s Thomas Martin said, “Markets are betting on these deals, but I’m cautious—failure could spark a big drop.” Wall Street warns of rising speculative trading risks. Goldman analysts note their speculative index surged recently.

 

Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott likened investing in a few tech stocks driving the S&P to “picking money before a steamroller.”  

 

Investors will watch next week’s Fed rate decision, widely expected to hold steady despite Trump’s pressure. Trump said Friday he believes the Fed will soon cut rates, a goal he’s pushed for months. He met Fed Chair Powell Thursday.

 

NatAlliance analysts said, “Powell’s dilemma: easing risks Fed independence, but resisting brings White House heat. He’ll likely follow the majority vote but leave room for September cuts in the presser.”  

Global Hotspots  

Von der Leyen, Trump Talk EU-U.S. Tariff Issues  

 

EU’s von der Leyen and Trump discussed trade ties, agreeing to meet in Scotland on July 27 to address cooperation and disputes.  

 

UK PM: Recognizing Palestine a Gaza Ceasefire Step  

 

PM Starmer on July 25 condemned Israel’s Gaza escalation and aid blocks, calling for peace. He said recognizing Palestine is a step, with over a third of UK MPs signing a letter to push this after France’s Macron’s move.  

 

Trump Sends Mixed Signals on Dollar Policy  

 

Trump on Friday gave conflicting views, rejecting a weak dollar but praising low rates for manufacturing gains. “I love a strong dollar, but a weak one earns more,” he said, amid market bets on a deliberate dollar drop. Asked about decline risks, he added, “I won’t lose sleep over it.”  

 

ECB’s Nagel: Eight Cuts Justify Holding Rates  

 

ECB’s Joachim Nagel said holding rates is apt after eight cuts, with inflation at 2% and U.S. tariff uncertainty high. He noted policy eased price pressures, citing stable inflation and slightly better growth outlook.  

Company News  

Zuckerberg: Shengjia Zhao to Lead AI Lab as CSO  

 

Zuckerberg announced on Threads that ChatGPT scientist Shengjia Zhao will be Meta’s AI lab chief, collaborating on research with him and Alexandr Wang.  

 

Anthropic Seeks Valuation Over $150B  

 

AI startup Anthropic is in early talks to double its valuation to over $150B in new funding, matching rivals like OpenAI, per insiders.  

 

VW Loses $1.5B in H1 from U.S. Tariffs  

 

Volkswagen said Trump’s tariffs cost it $1.5B in H1 2025, with North American sales down 16%, warning of further challenges from trade and geopolitics.  

 

Musk’s Neuralink Joins Bionic Eye Research  

 

Neuralink is collaborating with California and Spanish researchers on a visual prosthesis trial, disclosed on ClinicalTrials in late July, sponsored by UC Santa Barbara to aid blind navigation.  

 

LVMH to Sell Marc Jacobs for ~$1B  

 

LVMH is negotiating to sell Marc Jacobs for about $1B, with Authentic (Reebok’s owner), Bluestar, and WHP Global in talks, per insiders.  

 

Intel Plans to Spin Off Network Unit  

 

Intel’s memo to clients outlines spinning off its network and edge business, seeking external investment, confirmed by a spokesperson.  

Forex & Commodities  

WTI crude down 1.32% to $65.16/barrel, down 1.35% weekly; Brent down 1.07% to $68.44/barrel, down 1.2% weekly.  

 

COMEX gold down 1.04% to $3,338.5/oz, down 0.51% weekly; silver down 2.29% to $38.325/oz, down 0.26% weekly.  

 

Dollar index up 0.19% to 97.67, most non-U.S. currencies down.  

Key Events  

Hedge Funds’ Gold Bets Hit 4-Month High  

 

Before U.S.-EU trade progress, fund managers raised gold bullish bets to a 4-month peak of 170,868 contracts by July 22, up 19%.

 

U.S. data Friday showed a 16-week high, with gold up 27% this year on trade war fears, though central buying supports it.  

Cryptocurrency  

Major digital assets fell Friday.  

 

Bitcoin down 2% to $116,839, volume up 39.8% to $104.05B.  

 

Ethereum down 2.3% to $3,647.  

 

XRP down 4.8%, BNB down 0.7%, Solana down 3.4%. Dogecoin down 4.8%, Cardano down 3%.  

 

Crypto market cap down 1.7% to $3.83T, volume up 4.8% to $223.48B.  

Key Events  

Ethereum Outpacing Bitcoin? ETFs See 6-Day Inflow Edge  

Ethereum has outshone Bitcoin recently, with its CME futures annualized premium over 10% vs. Bitcoin’s, shifting some positions.

 

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs netted $2.4B inflows over six days, topping Bitcoin’s $827M, with daily gains since May.