Global Highlights This Week: Trump’s Tariff Deadline Looms, Big Seven Earnings Surge, Fed to Hold Steady?  

Amid smooth trade talks and solid corporate earnings, the S&P 500 hit new highs for five straight days last week, with this record rally facing a major test this week.  

 

First, President Trump’s August 1 tariff negotiation deadline approaches. Without a deal, multiple trade partners face higher tariffs, potentially clarifying profit outlooks and consumer price impacts while sparking asset price swings.  

 

Notably, EU Commission President von der Leyen will meet Trump today (July 27) in Scotland, boosting hopes of a trade agreement to avert a transatlantic trade war.  

 

EU officials and diplomats expect a framework deal this week, though Trump pegs U.S.-EU deal odds at 50% or lower.  

 

Wells Fargo’s global equity and real assets head Sameer Samana said trade tensions offer caution to some investors. “U.S.-EU is a top bilateral tie… a deal could force capital back, easing uncertainty.”  

 

Investors also eye U.S.-China trade progress, with officials set to meet in Stockholm this week to extend the tariff truce expiring August 12.  

 

Manulife John Hancock Investments strategist Matthew Miskin noted, “This week’s data load is huge; expectations have risen since months ago—meeting them will shape the market’s next move.”  

 

The Fed will release its rate decision early Thursday, with markets expecting no change as officials seek more data on tariff-driven inflation before cutting rates.  

 

Meanwhile, White House-Fed tensions escalate: Trump has repeatedly criticized Chair Powell’s reluctance to cut rates, with two nominated Fed governors recently calling for a July cut.  

 

Trump and Powell met last week at Fed headquarters, highlighting their clash. Trump said Friday he believes the Fed will soon cut rates, a months-long push.  

This week’s earnings season peaks with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta unveiling results, testing if the AI boom sustains market momentum.  

 

Per LSEG IBES, about 30% of S&P 500 firms have reported, with Q2 profits up 7.7% year-over-year, beating the 5.8% forecast.  

 

Key economic data includes the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls and June PCE index—signs of a cooling job market, weakening economy, or fading consumer confidence could boost odds of September or October rate cuts.  

 

ING analysts said, “We expect a quiet Fed meeting—rates and tapering unchanged. Strong jobs and rising inflation likely delay cuts, lifting the dollar this summer.”  

Overview of Key Overseas Economic Events This Week :  

Monday: UK July CBI retail sales balance, U.S. July Dallas Fed business activity index  

 

Tuesday: U.S. May FHFA house price index m/m, U.S. June JOLTs job openings, U.S. July Conference Board consumer confidence  

 

Wednesday: U.S. weekly API crude stocks to July 25, Australia Q2 CPI y/y, France Q2 GDP y/y prelim, Switzerland July KOF leading indicator, Germany Q2 unadjusted GDP y/y prelim, Switzerland July ZEW expectations, Eurozone Q2 GDP y/y prelim, Eurozone July economic sentiment, U.S. July ADP employment, U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized prelim, Canada rate decision to July 30, U.S. June pending home sales m/m, U.S. weekly EIA crude stocks to July 25, U.S. weekly EIA Cushing crude stocks to July 25  

 

Thursday: Fed FOMC rate decision, Powell’s press conference, China July official PMI, Switzerland June retail sales y/y, Germany July adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone June unemployment rate, U.S. July Challenger job cuts, Germany July CPI m/m prelim, Canada May GDP m/m, U.S. weekly initial jobless claims to July 26, U.S. June core PCE price index y/y and m/m, U.S. July Chicago PMI, U.S. weekly EIA natural gas stocks to July 25, Japan BoJ rate decision and outlook, BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference  

 

Friday: Japan June unemployment rate, China July S&P Global PMI, UK July Nationwide house price index m/m, Eurozone July manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone July CPI y/y prelim, U.S. July adjusted nonfarm payrolls, U.S. July unemployment rate, U.S. July ISM manufacturing PMI, U.S. July Michigan consumer sentiment final, U.S. July one-year inflation expectations final