Tonight's Highlights | U.S. Stocks Face Multiple Tests, Major Futures Trade in Tight Range

Investors, puzzled by the U.S. stock market hovering at historic highs, are bracing for a critical week: Fed rate decisions, tech giant earnings, nonfarm payrolls, inflation data, and the "August 1 tariff deadline" all converge in a few intense days.  

As of this writing, despite last weekend’s U.S.-EU preliminary trade deal boost, U.S. futures remain subdued.S&P 500 futures rose 0.11%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.23% pre-market.  

 

Since June 24, the S&P 500 has seen 22 trading days with moves under 1%. Its forward P/E ratio now nears 23x, well above the decade-long average of 18x.  

Potential market-shaking events abound this week, especially from Wednesday to Friday.  

 

On Wednesday, the Fed will unveil its July rate decision. While no rate cut is widely expected, traders will keenly watch if, with Powell nearing the end of his term, the Fed’s “dovish” stance hardens—perhaps with dissent votes on the decision.  

 

Over 150 S&P 500 firms, including Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft, will report earnings this week. Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and nonfarm payrolls will also reveal the latest on the economy and inflation.  

 

The tariff issue, a constant wildcard, remains murky.  

 

Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon said, “I think the market is more likely to get clearer signals on economic resilience, but trade prospects are less certain. For some of America’s largest trading partners, ‘reciprocal tariff’ deadlines are staggered, and the announced framework still leaves many questions unresolved. I don’t see August 1 as a ‘magic day’ to end tariff anxiety.”  

 

Amid this uncertainty, market opinions diverge sharply. Economists from ING, Bank of America, and Apollo Management warn of a potential bubble, while Oppenheimer Asset Management raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,100—pushing the forward P/E to nearly 26x.  

Other News  

Samsung Lands $16.5B Chip Deal, Musk Claims It’s Tesla!  

 

Samsung announced a $16.5 billion chip supply deal with a “major multinational” Monday. Hours later, Tesla CEO Elon Musk spilled the beans, posting on X that Tesla secured the deal. He noted Samsung’s new Texas mega-factory will produce Tesla’s next-gen AI6 chips, calling its strategic value undeniable. Tesla rose over 1% pre-market Monday, following Samsung Electronics’ 6.83% gain in Korea.  

 

JPMorgan Fires First Shot in ‘Bank Data Monetization,’ Fintechs Fight Back  

 

Reports say JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank by assets, will charge fintech startups for accessing bank customer data from September, issuing a pricing list. This includes data aggregator Plaid, which relies on free bank data to thrive.

 

The move has sparked outrage among small fintechs, many claiming the fees exceed their revenues. They’ve filed lawsuits, seeking regulatory reinstatement of rules banning such charges.  

 

One of Only Two Chikungunya Vaccine Makers to Go Private  

 

Bavarian Nordic A/S, a leading monkeypox vaccine maker, agreed Monday to a €19 billion ($3 billion) buyout by a European consortium, taking it private. The company confirmed acquisition talks last week, with its U.S. ADR surging 27.97% in a week.