Boeing Q2 Earnings Preview: Signs of Progress, But Challenges Remain

Boeing ($BA) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 earnings on Tuesday before the market opens, and while no one is expecting a profit, many are looking for signs that the aerospace giant is slowly turning the corner.

Earnings Snapshot: Smaller Loss, Bigger Sales

Wall Street expects Boeing to post a loss per share of around $1.40, a noticeable improvement from the $2.90 loss reported in Q2 2024. Revenue, however, is expected to jump nearly 28.4% year-over-year, to $21.7 billion, driven primarily by stronger jet deliveries.

The company delivered 150 commercial jets in Q2 2025, up from 92 a year ago. June alone saw 60 aircraft delivered, including a few 737-8 MAX planes to Chinese carriers—marking a positive step forward in Boeing’s rocky relationship with China.

Tailwinds: Deliveries, Trade Deals, and Certifications

Much of the optimism around Boeing comes from a steady recovery in commercial operations. Total jet deliveries are projected to hit 580 for 2025, up from 348 in 2024, and Wall Street sees over 700 deliveries in 2026, which could bring in $80 billion in revenue, $3.50 in EPS, and $5.6 billion in free cash flow.

New trade deals, like the recent agreement with Indonesia—which includes a purchase of 50 Boeing jets—and easing restrictions from the FAA on the 737 MAX production cap, are encouraging signs. The FAA currently limits production to 38 aircraft per month, but this could rise to 42 if quality standards hold.

Investors will also be watching closely for any updates on the certification of the 737 MAX 7, MAX 10, and 777X, which, if resolved this year, would unlock additional production and revenue streams.

Risks: Trade Tensions, Costs, and Scrutiny

Still, there are risks that could weigh on the stock. Tariffs on key inputs like aluminum and steel remain elevated, putting pressure on margins. And although deliveries to China have resumed, the broader trade relationship remains fragile—Chinese orders make up about 10% of Boeing’s backlog.

Boeing is also still under FAA scrutiny following last year’s Alaska Air MAX 9 door-plug incident. Labor negotiations are ongoing, and quality control remains a concern for regulators and customers alike.

Market Sentiment: Improving, But Cautious

Despite all this, Boeing shares are up more than 33% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 8% gain. The stock rallied earlier this month on record delivery numbers and currently trades near its 52-week highs. Options markets are pricing in a ~4% move post-earnings, reflecting elevated expectations—and some nervousness.

Boeing has only beaten EPS estimates in half of its last eight quarters, and just 38% of the time on revenue — not exactly a strong track record, but expectations may be shifting.

Analyst Viewpoints: Cautious Optimism with Upside Potential

Analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Most major firms—including J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, and Jefferies—rate Boeing a Buy, citing strong delivery momentum and improving operations. Price targets generally range from $230 to $250, suggesting modest upside from the current share price of around $236.

Rothschild is among the most bullish, setting a $275 target, while Bank of America sees the stock reaching $260 if recovery continues. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are more conservative, with targets around $212–$235, reflecting caution on quality and regulatory risks.

Overall, Wall Street is looking for steady progress—continued delivery gains, improved cash flow, and certification clarity—as key drivers of further upside.

Bottom Line

Boeing doesn’t need to be perfect this quarter—it just needs to keep showing progress. Investors want to see continued improvement in deliveries, signs of better cost control, and updates on FAA certification and trade relationships. The long road to recovery isn't over, but Tuesday’s report could provide more evidence that Boeing is getting back on track.

What’s Your Estimate?

As investors look for signs of a sustained recovery in Boeing’s Q2 earnings, here’s your chance to take part:

Join our bounty challenge and predict Boeing’s commercial aircraft deliveries for Q3 2025.

👉 [Join the challenge here]