Global Highlights This Week: U.S. CPI Report Hits Hard, Circle to Release Earnings
Last week, the three major U.S. stock indices trended upward overall, with the Nasdaq Composite returning to its rhythm of setting record highs, primarily driven by the strong performance of heavyweight stock Apple.
On Wednesday last week, Apple announced an additional $100 billion investment in the U.S. and advanced its “Made in America” plan. U.S. President Trump stated at the event that Apple would be exempt from chip and semiconductor tariffs. Influenced by this news, tech stocks rebounded broadly.
However, a tariff-tracking tool developed jointly by the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund showed that, as of Thursday last week, the U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate on all global products rose to 20.11%, a significant jump from 2.44% at the beginning of the year.
On Friday, FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem warned, “Trump’s tariffs are driving up prices while job growth is slowing, putting both aspects of our dual mandate at risk.”
Investors will closely monitor whether Trump’s tariffs have pushed up prices. This Tuesday, the U.S. will release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could trigger market volatility. If the data indicates higher-than-expected inflation, it may dampen optimism for rate cuts.
Earlier last week, Trump nominated Stephen Miran to fill the vacant Fed governor position left by Kugler—further bolstering dovish forces within the central bank. Shortly before press time, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman expressed support for three rate cuts this year.
Analysts believe Bowman’s stance may gain support from more committee members. Looking ahead to this week, several U.S. central bank officials will speak, including Richmond Fed President Barkin, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic.
Notably, Trump stated on Wednesday that he might soon announce the next Fed Chair. Market news on Friday suggested the candidate list has expanded, intensifying the battle for the Fed’s next leadership.
U.S. Earnings Outlook: Companies like Oklo, Circle, Coherent, and Archer Aviation are worth watching.
Overview of Key Overseas Economic Events This Week:
Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, OPEC monthly oil market report, U.S. July unadjusted CPI year-over-year, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks
Wednesday: IEA monthly oil market report, German July CPI month-over-month final, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks
Thursday: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks on monetary policy, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on U.S. economic outlook, Bank of Canada monetary policy minutes, Norges Bank interest rate decision, Eurozone Q2 GDP year-over-year revised, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9, U.S. July PPI year-over-year
Friday: Richmond Fed President Barkin participates in a webinar, U.S. July retail sales month-over-month, U.S. July import/export price index month-over-month, U.S. August New York Fed manufacturing index, U.S. July industrial production month-over-month, U.S. August Michigan University consumer confidence index preliminary/one-year inflation expectation preliminary