ADDX GO Market Morning Wrap - 9th Sep

Stock Market

Before key employment and inflation data releases, the three major US stock indices closed slightly higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq hitting a new all-time closing high.  

 

At close, the S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 6,495.15 points; the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.45% to 21,798.7 points; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.25% to 45,514.95 points.  

 

(Nasdaq daily chart, source: TradingView)  

 

Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Amazon up over 1% and Apple down 0.76%. Chip stocks also gained, with Broadcom up over 3%, and ASML, TSMC, and Western Digital each rising more than 1%.

 

Despite the market’s volatile upward trend, economists who had repeatedly warned that “September is historically the worst month for US stocks” have shifted their narrative. Since 1971, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1% decline in September, but in months when the Fed cuts rates without an economic contraction, the market has averaged a 1.2% gain.  

 

For the rate-cut narrative, this week brings three critical data points: Tuesday’s annual nonfarm benchmark revision, followed by August PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday. After last Friday’s nonfarm data disappointment, the market has priced in a Fed rate cut for September.  

 

Jim Reid, Global Macro and Thematic Research Head at Deutsche Bank, noted that over the two years following the start of non-recessionary rate-cut cycles, the S&P 500’s median gain has reached 50%. In contrast, when rate cuts coincide with recessions, returns are more muted.  

 

He added, “This helps explain why the stock market, after a nine-month pause, is broadly welcoming the Fed’s easing outlook.”  

 

From a data perspective, the US stock market remains in a “step-by-step” mode.  

 

The Bespoke Investment Group strategy team stated that while a Fed rate cut next week seems certain, the pace of subsequent cuts will heavily depend on how “ugly” inflation data turns out. By Thursday morning, the market will either focus on stagflation or anticipate three rate cuts by year-end.

Global Hotspots

France’s Political Stalemate Deepens: Two PMs Ousted Over Budget in Less Than a Year  

 

The government led by French Prime Minister Michel Barnier failed a no-confidence vote on Monday, just nine months into his tenure. According to CCTV News, the vote resulted in 364 no-confidence votes versus 194 in favor, failing to secure a majority. Barnier will now have to resign, expected to submit his resignation to Macron on September 9.

 

Milei’s Party Loses Election, Argentina Markets Suffer Stock, Bond, and Currency Plunge  

 

On Monday local time, Argentina’s stock, bond, and currency markets plummeted after President Javier Milei’s Freedom Advances party lost the Buenos Aires province election, raising doubts about the government’s ability to push economic reforms.

 

Following the critical provincial election defeat on Sunday, Milei vowed self-criticism for his nearly two-year administration but insisted on no reversal of economic policy. Economy Minister Luis Caputo affirmed, “There will be no changes to fiscal, monetary, or exchange rate policies.”

 

Fed Rate Cut “On the Brink,” Global Asset Values Set for Overhaul  

 

Mounting signs suggest the Fed’s rate cut is imminent. Driven by weak US employment data, the market has fully priced in a September rate cut. If the Fed’s “shoe drops,” global asset classes will likely face a new reconfiguration, with performances closely tied to capital flows and varying trends.

 

For US assets, Fed rate cuts generally benefit stocks and bonds while pressuring the dollar index; for non-US assets, a weaker dollar could drive global fund reallocation.

 

Apple Fall Event May Lack Spark, Analysts Bet on iPhone 17 Air to Spark Upgrade Wave  

 

Analysts note that while Apple’s upcoming fall event may lack major surprises, the rumored iPhone 17 Air could trigger a new upgrade cycle. Apple will hold its fall event at 1:00 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, themed “Awe Dropping,” and is expected to unveil the iPhone 17 series as per tradition.

 

US Business and Government Double Down on AI Deployment  

 

At a recent White House dinner, US political and business leaders discussed deepening AI industry layout and application. Executives from Microsoft, Google, Apple, Meta, OpenAI, and AMD pledged increased funding, collaborating with industry and government to tackle challenges in energy sources and use cases.

Corporate News

SpaceX Spends $17 Billion to Expand Direct-to-Cell Network  

 

On Monday (September 8 local time), EchoStar announced a final agreement to sell its AWS-4 (2GHz) and H-band spectrum licenses to SpaceX. SpaceX will pay EchoStar up to $8.5 billion in cash and $8.5 billion in stock, plus approximately $2 billion in cash interest on EchoStar’s debt by November 2027.

 

QuantumScape Demos Solid-State Battery in Real Vehicle  

 

Solid-state battery developer QuantumScape completed its first live demo of its QS solid-state lithium battery powering a real vehicle at the Munich Auto Show on Monday. The demo used a modified Ducati V21L motorcycle equipped with QSE-5 batteries made via QuantumScape’s Cobra process.

 

The company said Audi experts under Volkswagen designed the pioneering battery system.

 

Wall Street Tech Cheerleader Becomes Chairman, Nasdaq Penny Stock Surges 3,000%  

 

E-commerce platform Eightco Holdings closed up 3,008.97% on Monday, with intraday gains peaking at 5,632%. The company announced that Dan Ives, renowned Wedbush Securities tech analyst and Global Technology Research Director, has become its chairman.

 

Eightco also joined the “crypto treasury stock” trend, planning to hoard Worldcoin (WLD), the blockchain-native token used by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s biometric ID startup World.

 

Nebius Strikes $19.4 Billion AI Infrastructure Deal with Microsoft  

 

Nebius Group surged over 46% in after-hours trading on Monday, announcing a five-year deal with Microsoft worth up to $19.4 billion. The company will provide computing resources to Microsoft via a data center in New Jersey.

 

Qualcomm, Google Team Up to Bring AI Agents to Autos  

 

Qualcomm and Google announced an expanded partnership on Monday to introduce AI with autonomous agent capabilities to the automotive industry. Google will offer its Gemini AI model to carmakers, while Qualcomm provides its Snapdragon Digital Chassis solution.

 

Murdoch Family Succession Battle Ends  

 

Fox Corporation and News Corp announced on Monday that a long-standing dispute over the Murdoch family trust has been resolved. The outcome favors 94-year-old Rupert Murdoch, securing his chosen heir Lachlan to lead the conservative media empire, while Lachlan’s three elder siblings will each receive $1.1 billion in exchange for their shares.

 

A new Murdoch family trust will be established, including Lachlan and his sisters Grace and Chloe, holding controlling stakes in Fox and News Corp.

Forex & Commodities

At close, NYMEX WTI crude futures for the front month rose $0.39 to $62.26 per barrel, up 0.63%; London Brent crude futures gained $0.52 to $66.02 per barrel, up 0.79%.  

 

COMEX gold futures for the front month rose $24.10, or 0.66%, to $3,677.4 per ounce.  

 

At New York close, the dollar index fell 0.29% to 97.45, with most non-US currencies rising.

Key Events

History in the Making: Spot Gold Breaks $3,600! Up $1,000 This Year  

 

Driven by Fed rate-cut expectations, international gold prices have soared, breaking records. On September 8, London spot gold surpassed $3,600 per ounce, peaking at $3,635 per ounce, a new high. This year, spot gold has risen $1,000 per ounce, a 38% gain, marking a strong bull run.

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin rose 0.57% in 24 hours to $112,102.  

 

Ethereum (ETH-USD) fell 0.51% to $4,301.  

 

XRP (XRP-USD) gained 2.74%, BNB (BNB-USD) dropped 0.34%, and Solana (SOL-USD) rose 3.09%.  

 

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) surged 5.67%, and Cardano (ADA-USD) climbed 3.00%.

Key Events

Bitcoin Hovers Around $110,000, Analysts Say Even Fed Rate Cuts Won’t Spark a Surge  

 

Rachel Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets, said, “The weak US jobs report has indeed sparked market expectations of a more dovish Fed, which typically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the market has already priced in some policy easing. Meanwhile, we’re seeing institutions take profits, while ETF inflows remain steady.”  

 

Lucas noted this combination currently caps Bitcoin’s upside, keeping it range-bound.  

 

Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, added that even if the Fed cuts rates, Bitcoin prices may remain subdued.  

 

Liu explained, “A rate cut might signal a weak US economy, and persistent inflation with cautious risk sentiment could limit risk appetite. Without stronger ETF inflows or genuine liquidity expansion, (Bitcoin) will struggle to break above $120,000.”