ADDX GO Market Morning Wrap - 12th Sep

Stock Market

Last night and this morning, with US August CPI data broadly in line with expectations and initial jobless claims signaling a cooling labor market, all obstacles for the Federal Reserve’s rate cut next week have been cleared.

 

The three major US stock indices simultaneously hit new all-time highs, with the Dow crossing 46,000 points for the first time in history.  

 

At close, the S&P 500 rose 0.85% to 6,587.47 points; the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.72% to 22,043.07 points; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.36% to 46,108 points.  

 

(Dow Jones daily chart, source: TradingView)  

 

Large-cap tech stocks showed mixed results, with Apple up over 1%, Oracle down more than 6%, and Netflix falling over 3%.

 

Media stocks rallied, with Warner Bros. Discovery surging 28% and Paramount Global rising over 15%, amid reports that Paramount Global is preparing to bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. Stablecoin issuer Figure’s US IPO debuted with a gain of over 24%.  

 

Recent economic data has also opened the door for the Fed to implement three rate cuts this year.  

 

Economist Tiffany Wilding from Pacific Investment Management Company said, “Initial jobless claims might be the bigger story today.

 

We still expect a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed next week, though there will be discussions about a 50-basis-point cut. We also anticipate a total of 75 basis points in cuts this year.”  

 

Krishna Guha, global policy and central bank strategy head at Evercore, believes the CPI data supports the Fed cutting rates three times in September, October, and December, promptly adjusting the policy rate to a roughly neutral level.

 

The data should also help undecided Fed officials send corresponding signals in their economic projections (dot plot).  

Global Hotspots

US Initial Jobless Claims Surge to Near Four-Year High  

 

US initial jobless claims jumped to a near-four-year high last week, suggesting that layoffs may be increasing amid a sharp slowdown in hiring. According to the US Labor Department, claims for the week ending September 6 totaled 263,000, the highest since October 2021.

 

The four-week average rose to 240,500, the highest since June. Initial claims data can be volatile around holidays, with this week’s figures covering the Labor Day weekend. Texas saw the largest increase, followed by Michigan, while other states reported declines.  

 

European Central Bank Keeps Rates Steady at 2% as Expected  

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) held its benchmark rate steady at 2% for the second consecutive meeting, as officials assess the impact of the EU-US trade agreement. Thursday’s decision aligned with economist expectations, following ECB President Lagarde’s statement that rate setters have shifted to a “watchful” mode after eight rate cuts since last year.

 

Berenberg Bank economist Felix Schmidt noted before the decision that the ECB “has no need to alter its monetary stance.” He added that the eurozone economy “has proven more resilient than expected,” with inflation under control.  

 

Only 1 of 317 Arrested South Korean Workers Remains, Hyundai’s US Battery Plant Delayed  

 

Reports indicate that a Korean Air Boeing 747 chartered with over 300 released South Korean workers took off from Atlanta, USA, on Thursday morning, returning to South Korea. This follows a raid last Thursday by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement on the under-construction Hyundai-LG Energy Solution battery factory in Georgia, where 475 people were detained, including 317 Koreans.

 

Amid a surge in South Korean conglomerates’ US investments, images of handcuffed and shackled workers sparked widespread shock and anger in South Korea.  

 

US Interior Secretary: Offshore Wind Has No Future in America  

 

At an energy conference in Italy this week, US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum stated under the Trump administration that offshore wind has no future in America. He bluntly remarked, “Under this administration, offshore wind has no future because it’s too expensive and unreliable.”  

Corporate News

OpenAI and Microsoft Reach Preliminary Agreement on Future Collaboration Structure

 

OpenAI and Microsoft issued a post-market statement on Thursday, announcing a non-binding memorandum of understanding for the next phase of their partnership. OpenAI Chairman Bret Taylor said in a statement that the existing nonprofit will continue to control a new public benefit corporation, holding stakes valued over $100 billion.

 

Analysts suggest this could pave the way for OpenAI to transition from its nonprofit status to a more traditional corporate structure.$MSFT 

 

Ellison Rumored to Spend Hundreds of Billions to Help Son Build Media Empire

 

By Thursday’s close, Warner Bros. Discovery’s gain retreated to 28.95%, while Paramount Global rose over 15.55%. Market rumors suggest the Ellison family, which completed a Paramount acquisition last month, is discussing a takeover of Warner Bros.

 

Discovery. Estimates indicate that, with Warner Bros. Discovery’s market cap already exceeding $30 billion and over $30 billion in debt, a full acquisition could require more than $60 billion.  $WBD $PARA 

 

FTC Launches Investigation into Chatbot Risks to Minors

 

On Thursday (September 11) local time, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) issued orders to seven companies—Alphabet (Google’s parent), OpenAI, Meta, Meta subsidiary Instagram, Snap, xAI, and Character Technologies Inc. (developer of Character.AI)—requesting information to assess the potential negative impacts of AI chatbots on children and teens.

 

Apple Faces Wall Street’s Biggest Cold Shoulder in Five Years After Downgrades by Two Banks

 

On Thursday (September 11), Apple’s stock was downgraded by two investment banks, the latest sign of financial market caution toward the iPhone maker. Compiled data shows that with the downgrades, Apple’s “consensus recommendation” (a measure of buy, hold, and sell ratings) dropped to 3.9 (out of 5), the lowest since early 2020. $AAPL 

Forex & Commodities

At close, NYMEX WTI crude futures for the front month fell $1.30 to $62.37 per barrel, down 2.04%; London Brent crude futures dropped $1.12 to $66.37 per barrel, down 1.66%.  

 

COMEX gold futures for the front month declined $8.40, or 0.23%, to $3,673.6 per ounce.  

 

In late New York trading, the US Dollar Index fell 0.32% to 97.53, with most non-US currencies rising.  

Key Events

Gold Breaks Record, Surpasses 45-Year Inflation-Adjusted Peak!  

 

Gold prices have exceeded their inflation-adjusted peak from 45 years ago, extending a strong three-year bull run into uncharted territory amid growing market concerns about the US economic outlook. This month, spot gold has risen about 5%, hitting a record high of $3,674.27 per ounce on Tuesday.

 

In 2025, gold has set over 30 nominal price records, with the latest surge surpassing the inflation-adjusted high of $850 per ounce set on January 21, 1980. Adjusted for decades of consumer price increases, this equates to about $3,590—though adjustment methods vary, with some calculations yielding a lower 1980 peak.

 

Analysts and investors agree that gold has firmly broken this level, reinforcing its status as a timeless hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.  

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin rose 1.30% in 24 hours to $115,448.  

 

Ethereum (ETH-USD) gained 2.62% to $4,342.  

 

XRP (XRP-USD) rose 2.08%, BNB (BNB-USD) rose 0.97%, and Solana (SOL-USD) rose 2.10%.  

 

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) rose 4.27%, and Cardano (ADA-USD) rose 1.13%.  

Key Events

Investor Demand Drives Gemini’s Historic Crypto IPO to $4.25 Billion Valuation  

 

The upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen unprecedented demand, prompting the company to set a fundraising cap at $4.25 billion.

 

This decision follows a 20-fold surge in investor interest, far exceeding initial expectations. Originally planning to raise up to $2 billion, Gemini raised the cap due to enthusiasm from institutional and accredited investors.  

 

Gemini’s IPO will mark a first for the crypto sector, with its strategic timing and strong investor support rivaling traditional tech IPOs. The exchange credits this heightened attention to its improving regulatory compliance framework and recent expansions across multiple jurisdictions.

 

Gemini’s transparent operations have also earned praise, a key factor in attracting conservative institutional investors typically wary of crypto market volatility.