Global Highlights This Week: Fed’s First Rate Cut of 2025 Enters Countdown, Meta to Launch Consumer AR Glasses
US President Trump, who has been vocally calling for a Federal Reserve rate cut day and night, is highly likely to see the first rate cut of his second term this week.
According to the “Fed Watch” tool, there is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will implement a 25-basis-point rate cut this week, lowering the US policy rate range to 4%-4.25%. There is also a slim chance of a 50-basis-point cut—typically, if this occurs, a semi-official “spokesperson” would signal it in advance, but that seems highly unlikely at this stage.
The Fed’s subsequent rate-cut path will also be a key market focus, with expectations already pricing in at least 25-basis-point cuts for October and December. The economic projections released alongside the policy statement this week will include monetary policymakers’ outlook on rate cuts.
(Market bets on rate cuts at the FOMC’s final two meetings of the year are close to 80%, source: CME)
Powell’s press conference will mark his first public address since the Jackson Hole symposium. The market will listen closely to how the Fed Chair balances the dual challenges of persistent US inflation and weakening employment.
Another potential drama could unfold: The US Senate is scheduled to hold a full vote on Monday (September 15) regarding Trump’s nomination of Stephen Milan for a short-term seat on the Fed Board of Governors. If Milan’s nomination passes, the “dot plot” this week will directly reflect White House input.
Beyond the Fed’s policy decision, significant US economic data releases this week include Tuesday’s August retail sales and industrial production, and Thursday’s high-frequency initial jobless claims.
Per the schedule, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their latest interest rate decisions this week, with markets expecting no changes—high inflation for the former and a prime ministerial transition for the latter.
In the diplomatic sphere, several major events are lined up this week, with the most notable being the China-US trade negotiations.
US President Trump will begin a three-day state visit to the UK starting Tuesday. Reports suggest Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink, and Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman are expected to accompany him, potentially announcing a series of investment deals.
On the corporate front, this week remains a quiet period for earnings, but FedEx’s operational data will offer a firsthand look at the US economy. The parent company of prominent crypto media outlet CoinDesk and digital asset trading platform Bullish will also release its first post-IPO earnings report this week.
A long-anticipated event for the capital market, Meta will host its Connect conference this week.
The highlight will be a consumer-grade AR glasses model called “Meta Hypernova”—the XR industry giant’s first consumer AR product—while the AI-powered Ray-Ban Meta glasses are expected to launch their third generation.
(Source: Meta)
Continuing the market buzz from Friday, the US CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will meet on Thursday, a development worth watching for investors holding vaccine stock positions.
Friday, as the third Friday of the month, marks the traditional “triple witching day” in the US stock market, when large volumes of stock index futures, index options, and stock options expire, potentially causing volatility due to liquidity shifts.